lincoln county winter weather briefing oct 30, 2018 · • big wave event & coastal flooding...

Winter Outlook - 2018-2019 Lincoln County Winter Weather Briefing

Oct 30, 2018

Tyree Wilde & Will Ahue National Weather Service Portland, OR

• Quick Recap of Last Winter

• Winter Outlook – 2018-2019

• NWS Resources for Decision Making

• Happenings at the NWS

Overview

• LaNina Episode – Typically wetter and cooler in PacNW…but – 2017-2018 was warmer and drier than normal in

most of Oregon – Sharp contrast in precipitation – WA and OR

Winter Recap - 2017-2018

Seasonal Temperature (Oct 1 – Sep 30)

Observed Departure from Normal

Seasonal Precipitation (Oct 1 – Sep 30)

Observed Departure from Normal

• 2 Tornado’s in October – Oct 12 Aurora Tornado (EF-0) – Oct 12 Mt Vista (WA) Tornado (EF-0) – Also had one on Sep 19 (LaComb – EF-1)

Winter Recap – 2017-2018 Tornado Season (?)

• Four low-elevation snow events – Dec 24 (1.0 inch)

• snow and freezing rain, Longview to Portland – Feb 18 (0.2 inch) – Feb 20 (4.2 inches) – Feb 22 (2.2 inches) – 7.6 inches seasonal total at NWS office

Winter Recap - 2017-2018

• Christmas Eve Snow & Freezing Rain – 1 to 3 inches - Longview to Portland – ~0.3 inch freezing rain – No white Xmas South of Portland – Shut Out

Winter Recap - 2017-2018

Snowfall graphic courtesy: Mark Nelsen, KPTV Photo by Angela Rogers

• Two freezing rain events – Dec 24 (0.31inch) – Dec 26 (0.08 inch)

Winter Recap - 2017-2018

• Big Wave Event & Coastal Flooding (Jan 18) – 34 to 37 ft seas; dangerous surf zone – $800-$1M damage - Lincoln County (bldg’s) – Severe dune erosion – Clatsop and Tillamook Counties – Many logs in surf zone

Winter Recap - 2017-2018

Maps show the basin-wide percent of average for snowpack in terms of water content

Images courtesy of the Natural Resources Conservation Service www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

March 2016

March 2017 March 1, 2018

• Lowest snowfall in Cascades in a LaNina winter since 2000-2001 season

Winter Recap - 2017-2018

Graphic courtesy: Mark Nelsen, KPTV

What will happen this Winter

El-Nino ? LaNina ?

El Niño Developing

El Nino & La Nina Patterns

ENSO episodes since 1950

El-Nino

West Coast So. America

Warmer than usual

-0.5°

Neutral La Niña El Niño Weak

La Niña

(°C) 0.5° 1.0° 2.0° -1.0° -2.0°

ENSO Outlook Model projections of ENSO conditions:

ENSO-Neutral conditions currently

Weak El Niño now favored for fall and winter months

El-Nino Events

El-Nino Precipitation - Locally

Oct-Dec Feb-Apr Dec-Feb Nov-Jan Jan-Mar

Coast

Cascades

Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Seasonal Outlook Oct-Nov-Dec 2018

Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Seasonal Outlook Jan-Feb-Mar 2019

Summary • Weak El-Nino favored for winter (70-75% chance)

• Favored this Winter:

– Temperature: Above average – Precipitation: Slightly below average favored, but

uncertainty exists – Snowpack: Likely a little below average

• Remember: – High-impact storms can occur October - March – Some snowfall possible in Willamette Valley this

winter – Flooding: lower-than-average probability due to El-

Nino developing

Resources

Some NWS Resources to help you stay informed this winter

Social Media

• NWS Social Media • Public posts of local

weather / conditions • Interactive forum

– Photos and Video – Exchange Information

• Situation Awareness

Transportation Webpage (DOT)

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/dot/?wfo=pqr&mode=index

Transportation Webpage (DOT)

• https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/dot/?wfo=pqr&mode=sat

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/dot/?wfo=pqr&mode=index

No Matter What Be “Weather Ready”

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/ambassadors.html#.Vs4EDuaULJc

Working together to build Community Resilience

Weather Ready Nation Ambassadors

• Please become one! – https://www.weather.gov/wrn/ambassadors

• We use it to build partnerships and joint

collaborative community engagement

WRN Ambassador #4000

One Stop Shopping

NWS Front Page • Your Link to

Real-time Weather

• weather.gov

Contact Info: tyree.wilde@noaa.gov

Questions?