lincoln county winter weather briefing oct 30, 2018 · • big wave event & coastal flooding...
TRANSCRIPT
Winter Outlook - 2018-2019 Lincoln County Winter Weather Briefing
Oct 30, 2018
Tyree Wilde & Will Ahue National Weather Service Portland, OR
• Quick Recap of Last Winter
• Winter Outlook – 2018-2019
• NWS Resources for Decision Making
• Happenings at the NWS
Overview
• LaNina Episode – Typically wetter and cooler in PacNW…but – 2017-2018 was warmer and drier than normal in
most of Oregon – Sharp contrast in precipitation – WA and OR
Winter Recap - 2017-2018
Seasonal Temperature (Oct 1 – Sep 30)
Observed Departure from Normal
Seasonal Precipitation (Oct 1 – Sep 30)
Observed Departure from Normal
• 2 Tornado’s in October – Oct 12 Aurora Tornado (EF-0) – Oct 12 Mt Vista (WA) Tornado (EF-0) – Also had one on Sep 19 (LaComb – EF-1)
Winter Recap – 2017-2018 Tornado Season (?)
• Four low-elevation snow events – Dec 24 (1.0 inch)
• snow and freezing rain, Longview to Portland – Feb 18 (0.2 inch) – Feb 20 (4.2 inches) – Feb 22 (2.2 inches) – 7.6 inches seasonal total at NWS office
Winter Recap - 2017-2018
• Christmas Eve Snow & Freezing Rain – 1 to 3 inches - Longview to Portland – ~0.3 inch freezing rain – No white Xmas South of Portland – Shut Out
Winter Recap - 2017-2018
Snowfall graphic courtesy: Mark Nelsen, KPTV Photo by Angela Rogers
• Two freezing rain events – Dec 24 (0.31inch) – Dec 26 (0.08 inch)
Winter Recap - 2017-2018
• Big Wave Event & Coastal Flooding (Jan 18) – 34 to 37 ft seas; dangerous surf zone – $800-$1M damage - Lincoln County (bldg’s) – Severe dune erosion – Clatsop and Tillamook Counties – Many logs in surf zone
Winter Recap - 2017-2018
Maps show the basin-wide percent of average for snowpack in terms of water content
Images courtesy of the Natural Resources Conservation Service www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov
March 2016
March 2017 March 1, 2018
• Lowest snowfall in Cascades in a LaNina winter since 2000-2001 season
Winter Recap - 2017-2018
Graphic courtesy: Mark Nelsen, KPTV
What will happen this Winter
El-Nino ? LaNina ?
El Niño Developing
El Nino & La Nina Patterns
ENSO episodes since 1950
El-Nino
West Coast So. America
Warmer than usual
-0.5°
Neutral La Niña El Niño Weak
La Niña
(°C) 0.5° 1.0° 2.0° -1.0° -2.0°
ENSO Outlook Model projections of ENSO conditions:
ENSO-Neutral conditions currently
Weak El Niño now favored for fall and winter months
El-Nino Events
El-Nino Precipitation - Locally
Oct-Dec Feb-Apr Dec-Feb Nov-Jan Jan-Mar
Coast
Cascades
Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Seasonal Outlook Oct-Nov-Dec 2018
Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Seasonal Outlook Jan-Feb-Mar 2019
Summary • Weak El-Nino favored for winter (70-75% chance)
• Favored this Winter:
– Temperature: Above average – Precipitation: Slightly below average favored, but
uncertainty exists – Snowpack: Likely a little below average
• Remember: – High-impact storms can occur October - March – Some snowfall possible in Willamette Valley this
winter – Flooding: lower-than-average probability due to El-
Nino developing
Resources
Some NWS Resources to help you stay informed this winter
Social Media
• NWS Social Media • Public posts of local
weather / conditions • Interactive forum
– Photos and Video – Exchange Information
• Situation Awareness
Transportation Webpage (DOT)
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/dot/?wfo=pqr&mode=index
Transportation Webpage (DOT)
• https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/dot/?wfo=pqr&mode=sat
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/dot/?wfo=pqr&mode=index
No Matter What Be “Weather Ready”
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/ambassadors.html#.Vs4EDuaULJc
Working together to build Community Resilience
Weather Ready Nation Ambassadors
• Please become one! – https://www.weather.gov/wrn/ambassadors
• We use it to build partnerships and joint
collaborative community engagement
WRN Ambassador #4000
One Stop Shopping
NWS Front Page • Your Link to
Real-time Weather
• weather.gov
