lessons learned from past notable disasters italy part 2: volcanoes walter hays, global alliance for...

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

ITALYPART 2: VOLCANOES

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA 

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN ITALY DISASTERS IN ITALY

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN ITALY DISASTERS IN ITALY

FLOODS

WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

VOLCANOES

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s heat flow and lithospheric-mantle collision-zone inter-actions cause VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

ITALY AND THE REGIONAL TECTONIC PLATES

LITHOSPHERIC-MANTLE INTER-

ACTIONS: AFRICA---EURASIA PLATES

VOLCANOES are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of

movement along faults located in subduction zones or at hot spots (e.g., Hawaii

and Iceland).

VOLCANOES are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of

movement along faults located in subduction zones or at hot spots (e.g., Hawaii

and Iceland).

Of the 14 volcanoes in Italy, the four best known are: Etna (the

largest active volcano in Europe), Vulcano, Stromboli, and Vesuvius (the only active volcano on the mainland of

Europe).

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, ,..) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure that are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards will be LOST.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international actions.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

TOWARDS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCETOWARDS VOLCANO

DISASTER RESILIENCE

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISKRISK

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISKRISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

ITALY’S ITALY’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

ITALY’S ITALY’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• VOLCANO HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

VOLCANO RISK VOLCANO RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

VOLCANO DISASTER VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• VERTICAL PLUME

• ASH AND TEPHRA

• LATERAL BLAST

• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• LAVA FLOWS

• LAHARS

• EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)

• “VOLCANIC WINTER”

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY HAZARDS (PDA’s) IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES EARLY WARNING IS ESSENTIAL FOR EVAC-UATION AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LOCATION: ITALY’S FOUR NOTABLE VOLCANOES

LAST ERUPTIONS OF ITALY’S FOUR NOTABLE

VOLCANOES

VULCANO: 1890

VESUVIUS:1944

ETNA: 2012

STROMBOLI: 2013 CONTINUING

ITALY’S VULCANO: 1890 - - -

ITALY’S VESUVIUS: 1944

ITALY’S VESUVIUS: 1944

Naples is at risk

ITALY’S ETNA: 2012 - - -

ITALY’S STROMBOLI: 2013 - - -

THE MOST COMMON FLAWS EXPOSED BY VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

• UN—PREPARED FOR WHAT HAPPENED

• UN---WARNED; NO EVACUATION• UN---ABLE TO RESPOND

EFFECTIVELY; LIVES LOST

ITALY’S NEXT VOLCANIC ERUPTION IS INEVITABLEITALY’S NEXT VOLCANIC ERUPTION IS INEVITABLE

• BUT, VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBLE DREAM!