lessons learned from past notable disasters india part 1: floods (note: floods also trigger...

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

INDIAPART 1: FLOODS

(NOTE: FLOODS ALSO TRIGGER LANDSLIDES)

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

INDIA

NATURAL AND TECH. HAZARDS THAT HAVE NATURAL AND TECH. HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN INDIACAUSED DISASTERS IN INDIA

NATURAL AND TECH. HAZARDS THAT HAVE NATURAL AND TECH. HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN INDIACAUSED DISASTERS IN INDIA

FLOODS (LANDSLIDES)

SEVERE WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

POWER BLACKOUTS

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s atmospheric-hydrospheric-lithospheric interactions create situ-ations favorable for FLOODS

CAUSES OF NOTABLE FLOODS IN INDIA: THE

ANNUAL MONSOON RAINS

A “HIMALAYAN TSUNAMII” HIMALAYAN REGION OF

NORTHEST INDIA(Floods also trigger landslides)

June 24—JULY ??, 2013

Triggered by unusually heavy monsoon rains that don’t

usually arrive this early in the mountainous state of

Uttarakhand, which borders Nepal and China, the floods and landslides swept away

buildings, roads and vehicles.

HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN A FLOOD

Entire villages:

People, property, infra-structure, business enterprise, government centers, crops, wildlife, and natural resources.

Kedarnath, the home of a deeply revered Hindu

temple visited by many pilgrims every year,

experienced the maximum devastation.

KEDARNATH (Note: Temple in Foreground)

KEDARNATH (Note: Temple in foreground)

RISHIKESH: HINDU STATUE

PARTS OF NEW DEHLI ALSO FLOODED

IMPACTS

• At least 1,000 feared dead

• 70,000 evacuated

• More than 50,000 people cut off by the waters

DEVASTATING FLOODS IN ASSAM STATE AND IN NORTHEST INDIA(Floods also trigger landslides)

June 28—JULY 15, 2012

The Brahmaputra River overflowed during monsoon

rains, flooding more than 2,000 villages and

destroying homes in the northeast of the country

FLOOD: ASSAM STATE; JUNE 28, 2012

WILD BUFFALO GOING TO HIGHER GROUND; JUNE 28

STRANDED IN NAELENI VILLAGE: JUNE 28

STRANDED

SOME OF THE 500,000 EVACUEES: JUNE 29

ELDERLY AND YOUNG EVACUEES: JUNE 29

HOMELESS BULUT VILLAGE FAMILY: JUNE 30

PUMPING DRINKING WATER: BULUT VILLAGE; JUNE 30

2012: RECORD BREAKING IMPACTS

Ninety-five dead Over 2 million homeless. Half a million evacuees are living in relief

camps with disease prone conditions Damaging landslides hindered relief

operations

NEEDED: FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE

NEEDED: FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE

INDIA’SINDIA’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

INDIA’SINDIA’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIESDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•FLOOD HAZARDS•PEOPLE & BLDGS. •VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

FLOOD RISK FLOOD RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: FLOOD DISASTER GOAL: FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

• PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

A FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT HELPS GUIDE POLICY

ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION FOR

FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE

DAMAGE FROM DAMAGE FROM INUNDATIONINUNDATION

DAMAGE FROM DAMAGE FROM INUNDATIONINUNDATION

A FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT INTEGRATES PHYSICAL A FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT INTEGRATES PHYSICAL EFFECTS AND SOCIETAL IMPACTS TO DETERMINE EFFECTS AND SOCIETAL IMPACTS TO DETERMINE

RISKRISK

A FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT INTEGRATES PHYSICAL A FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT INTEGRATES PHYSICAL EFFECTS AND SOCIETAL IMPACTS TO DETERMINE EFFECTS AND SOCIETAL IMPACTS TO DETERMINE

RISKRISK

EROSION, SCOUR, AND EROSION, SCOUR, AND LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

EROSION, SCOUR, AND EROSION, SCOUR, AND LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

LOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTIONLOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTION ECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSS

RISKRISKRISKRISK

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN

FLOODSFLOODS

INUNDATION

INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

STRUCTURE & CONTENTS: DAMAGE FROM WATER

WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)

EROSION AND MUDFLOWS

CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

DISASTER LABORATORIES

DISASTER LABORATORIES

FLOOD DISASTER RISKSFLOOD DISASTER RISKS

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE, RELEASE OF

HAZARDOUS MATERIALS, DAMAGE TO CONTENTS, TRANSPORTATION OF DEBRIS,

AUTOS, AND HOUSES, ENVIRONMENTAL DEAD ZONES, AND WATER BORNE

DISEASES

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE, RELEASE OF

HAZARDOUS MATERIALS, DAMAGE TO CONTENTS, TRANSPORTATION OF DEBRIS,

AUTOS, AND HOUSES, ENVIRONMENTAL DEAD ZONES, AND WATER BORNE

DISEASES

A RISK ASSESSMENT

• A risk assessment involves the probabilistic integration of:

• The hazard (e.g., floods) and their potential disaster agents (inundation, erosion, etc) that are directly related to the location of the community and what happens in the regional water cycle.

RISK ASSESSMENT (Continued)

• The location of each element of the exposure in relation to the physical demands of the hazard (i.e., inundation, etc.)

RISK ASSESSMENT (Continued)

• The exposure (e.g., people, and elements of the community’s built environment), represents the potential loss when the natural hazard occurs.

RISK ASSESSMENT (Continued)

• The vulnerability (or fragility) of each element comprising the exposure when subjected to the potential disaster agents.

UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY: THE

ULTIMATE DRIVER OF RISK

Vulnerability: The Driver of Risk Vulnerability: The Driver of Risk Vulnerability: The Driver of Risk Vulnerability: The Driver of Risk

FLOOD FLOOD

HAZARDSHAZARDS

FLOOD FLOOD

HAZARDSHAZARDS

EVENTEVENT

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

PEOPLESTRUCTURESPROPERTYENVIRONMENTINFRASTRUCTURE

EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

EXPECTED EXPECTED

LOSSLOSS

EXPECTED EXPECTED

LOSSLOSS

An element’s vulnerability (fragility) is the result of a community’s actions or of

nature’s actions that change some part of the regional water

cycle (e.g., precipitation, storage, runoff, transpiration,

evaporation).

WHAT INCREASES VULNERABILITY

MANKIND’S ACTIONS AND NATURE ITSELF CAN CHANGE THE VULNERABILITY OF

ELEMENTS AT RISK TO A FLOOD, A PART OF THE REGIONAL WATER CYCLE

MANKIND’S CONTRIBUTIONAn element’s vulnerability

(fragility) is the result of flaws that enter during the planning,

location, siting, design, and construction of a community’s buildings and infrastructure.

MANKIND’S ACTIONS THAT CHANGE SOME PART OF THE WATER CYCLE

• Urban development or industrial development in areas that were formerly wetlands.

• Locating buildings and infrastructure in a river floodplain.

MANKIND’S ACTIONS THAT CHANGE SOME PART OF THE WATER CYCLE

• Actions that increase or decrease river gradients (deforestation, dams, etc).

• Actions that change the runoff rate or pattern (e.g., the city’s concrete footprint)

NATURE’S ACTIONS THAT CHANGE THE WATER CYCLE

• A flash flood.• Ice jams/ice dams on the river• Rapid melt of snow and ice• Extreme or prolonged

precipitation caused by stalled low-pressure weather systems.

REQUIRED INFORMATION FOR A COMPREHENSIVE

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

REQUIRED INFORMATION

• Physical characteristics of the regional water cycle and drainage system.

• Physical characteristics of each river system, its tributaries, and its floodplains.

REQUIRED INFORMATION

• Physical characteristics of catchment basins, reservoirs, and wetlands in the region.

• Physical characteristics of dikes, levees, and dams controlling water discharge and flooding potential in the region.

REQUIRED INFORMATION

• The hazardous materials and other elements located in the floodplain.

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN

FLOODSFLOODS

INUNDATION

INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER

WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)

EROSION AND MUDFLOWS

CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER

CAUSES OF DISASTER

CAUSES OF DISASTER

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., floods, earthquakes,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST for long periods.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

RISK ASSESSMENT

• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

• EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

• EVENTEVENT

POLICY ASSESSMENT

• COSTCOST

• BENEFITBENEFIT

•CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES

MOVING TOWARDS FLOOD DISASTER MOVING TOWARDS FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

FLOODSFLOODSFLOODSFLOODS EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS

EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL FLOODS PREPAREDNESFOR THE EXPECTED AND UNEXPECTED IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL FLOODS

EARLY WARN-ING (THE ISS) AND EVACU-ATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL FLOODS TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL FLOODS

RECOVERY AND RECON-STRUCTION USUALLY TAKES LONG-ER THAN THOUGHT.