lecture(12) 2013-2014. risk & uncertainty definition “risk” and “uncertainty” are two...

Infrastructure planning and management

Lecture(12)

Civil Engineering Dept.Master Program

2013-2014

Risk & Uncertainty Definition

“Risk” and “uncertainty” are two terms basic to any decision making framework. Risk can be defined as imperfect knowledge where the probabilities of the possible outcomes are known, and uncertainty exists when these probabilities are not known (Hardaker).

Project risk management definition

The PRM process is defined as “the process of taking management action in order to respond appropriately to all identified risks to maximise the likelihood of the project meeting its objectives within its constraints, by monitoring risk exposure and adjusting project strategy to keep risk within acceptable levels”

Project risk management process

• Risk identification• Risk Analysis - Qualitative risk

analysis - Quantitative risk

analysis• Risk mitigation• Risk Monitoring and

follow up

Selection of parameters for Risk analysis

Accounting for Unforeseen Changes and Events

1•Technologies changes affecting water

supply and demand

2 •New finding that affect federal and state environment regulation

3 •Major industry location and relocation

4 •Hurricanes, earthquake, or landslides

5 •Climate change affecting water flows and water levels

6 •War and insurgent action such as happened in Gaza before one year

Uncertainties in Water Resources Management

Environmental Risk Assessment and Management

Environmental Risk Assessment and Management

Management of Water Quantity and Quality

Modeling and decision making processes in water resources

management

Modeling and decision making processes in water resources

management

Stochastic variation of thewater level in a reservoir.

Effective Decision-Making process

1 •It focuses on what is important

2 •It is logical and consistent

3•It acknowledge both subjective and

objective factors and blends analytical with intuitive thinking

4•It requires only as much information

and analysis as is necessary to resole a particular dilemma

5•It encourages and guides the

gathering of relevant information and informed opinion

6 •It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible

WORKSHOP

Risk analysis for wastewater pumping station (Group(A))

Risk analysis for landfill design (Group(B))