uncertainty not risk
DESCRIPTION
Why we need to look beyond a world full of machines to a world of complex adaptive systemsTRANSCRIPT
We need to shift from seeing the world as composed mainly of
MACHINES
to seeing it as composed mainly of
COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Whereas MACHINES• can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully
understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts)
• exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of behavior
• show proportionality of cause and effect, and• can be managed because their behavior
predictable . . .
COMPLEX SYTEMS• are more than the sum of their parts (they have
emergent properties)• can flip from one pattern of behavior to
another (they have multiple equilibriums)• show disproportionality of cause and effect
(their behavior is often nonlinear, because of feedbacks and synergies), and
• cannot be easily managed because their behavior is often unpredictable.
We have moved from a world of
RISK
to a world of
UNCERTAINTY(unknown unknowns)
So, we must move from “management” to
Complex Adaptation
These slides are adapted from an excellent presentation by Thomas Homer-Dixon
The full presentation and podcast can be found here (follow link):
"Uncertainty, Lags and Nonlinearity: Challenges to Governance in a Turbulent World“
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