lecture 10: purchasing power parity primary motivation: how realistic is the assumption p = ?...
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LECTURE 10: Purchasing Power Parity
• Primary Motivation: How realistic is the assumption P = ?• Secondary motivation: How integrated are global goods markets?
• Definition(s) of PPP (Absolute vs. Relative PPP)
• PPP within the Monetary Approach to the B of P• Does PPP hold in practice?
• Barriers to international goods market arbitrage• Four observed patterns of deviation from PPP• Arbitrage enforces the Law Of One Price in some sectors, but not in others:
P
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
PPP: ALTERNATIVE DEFINTIONS
Absolute PPP : P ≡ price of a basket of goods in domestic currency.
•
•
• RER =1, where real exchange rate RER
• In logs: e = p - p*.
*EPP
*P
PE
P
EP*
P
P
/1
*/1
Prof. Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard Kennedy School
PPP: ALTERNATIVE DEFINTIONS (continued)
Relative PPP CPI ≡ is a price index, expressed relative to an arbitrary base year
e.g., “CPI2000 ≡ 100.0” (from national agencies).
• or .
• Q is constant (at ), where real exchange rate Q ≡
• In logs, Δe = Δ cpi – Δ cpi* (relative to some base year).
• Annual depreciation = π - π* .
*))((1
CPIEQ
CPI *CPI
CPIQE
QCPI
CPIE
*
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
PPP within the MABP:Effect of a devaluation
• E ↑ => P ↑ => (M/P) ↓ => • (M/P)<L => “Excess Demand for Money” =>
• residents cut back spending on goods (or assets)
• => BP ↑ the “real balance effect”
• => Res rising over time
• + Nonsterilization M rising over time
=> BP is self-correcting.
}
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
Does PPP hold in practice?
• No.
• Q varies a lot.
Four patterns ofdeviation from PPP
and their likely origins:
a) Band <= barriers
b) Random walk <= shifts in terms of trade
c) Trend <= Balassa-Samuelson effect
d) Autoregression <= sticky prices .
Band Random Walk
Trend Autoregression
Q
Q Q
Q Q
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
BARRIERS TO INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION OF GOODS MARKETS
• Transportation costs, which depend on:
• geography
• technology
• Tariffs & non-tariff trade barriers
• Currencies
• Other border frictions
Source: FREIGHT RATES AND PRODUCTIVITYGAINS IN BRITISH TRAMP SHIPPING 1869-1950 by Saif I. Shah Mohammed and Jeffrey G. WilliamsonNBER Working Paper 9531 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w9531)
Long distance transport costs fell during the 19th century.
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
By 1914, low transport costs, UK-led free trade, & the Pax Brittanica allowed arbitrage between the US & UK in wheat.
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
Arbitrage enforces the Law Of One Price in some sectors, but not in others
• For homogeneous mineral & agriculturalcommodities, the Law of One Price– holds, if there are no trade barriers (gold),– fails, if there are trade barriers (sugar).
• For goods & services not traded internationally, there can be no arbitrage (haircuts).
• Other sectors fall in between :– Manufactured goods.– Big Mac hamburgers.
The Law of One Price holds relatively wellfor a standardized metal such as gold.
G.Alessandria & J.Kaboski, 2008, “Why are Goods So Cheap in Some Countries? ” Business Review, Fed,Res,Bank of Philadelphia, Q2. Table 2.
Note: India has tariffs & quotas on gold imports.{
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
High trade barriers in
agricultural products are still
common, preventing
price arbitrage.
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
Prices of nontraded services vary widely.Notice that they are
lower in poorer (low-wage) countries
than rich.
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
Big Macs are partly traded (ingredients) & partly nontraded (cooking & retail).Their price varies widely across countries.
Jan.22, 2014
Why is the price of Big Macs
so high in Norway & Switzerland?
than in Japan?
higher in Brazil
Low in India & S.Africa?
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
Non-Traded Goods• Even if arbitrage quickly equalized prices for traded goods,
it would not do so for goods that are not traded internationally.
• If the price of Non-Traded Goods rises more rapidly in Japan than in the US, then the yen will come to appear overvalued in real terms, i.e., relative to PPP.
• Balassa-Samuelson effect: higher income per capita => higher relative price of non-traded goods => real appreciation.– Usual mechanism: the higher productivity occurs in Traded Goods sector
= > ( PTG /PNTG ) ↓ .
– But PTG = E PTG *, tied to world markets =>
PNTG ↑ => CPI ↑ => (E P*/CPI)↓ ,
Or E ↓ real appreciation.
{ }
Balassa-Samuelson relationship: Absolute price levels are higher in rich countries
(real exchange rates are lower).
G.Alessandria & J. Kaboski, 2008, “Why are Goods So Cheap in Some Countries? ” Bus.Rev, Fed.Res. Bank of Philadelphia, Q2. Fig.1
1/Q
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
Sticky goods prices => autoregressive pattern in real exchange rate
(though you need 200 years of data to see it)
1925 ₤ return to gold
1931, 49, 69₤ devaluations
UK inflation duringBretton Woods era
Thatcherappreciation
1990: ₤ enteredEMS
1992: ₤ leftEMS
Bottom line conclusion from PPPfor the rest of the course
• For most goods & services, prices are “sticky”– i.e., we can take their prices as exogenous in the SR.– Exceptions:
• mostly agricultural & mineral products• Especially in very small open economies.
• After a few years pass (Medium Run), we must take into account that prices adjust,
• closing about ¼ gap per year.
• In the Long Run, prices may adjust fully,– returning us to a LR PPP equilibrium,– although even in the LR there can be changes in ,
• E.g. from exogenous changes in terms of trade• Or from Balassa-Samuelson effect.
Q
Q
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
Long distance transport costs fell sharply during the 19th century.
Source: FREIGHT RATES AND PRODUCTIVITYGAINS IN BRITISH TRAMP SHIPPING 1869-1950 by Saif I. Shah Mohammed and Jeffrey G. WilliamsonNBER Working Paper 9531 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w9531)
Appendix 1: Transport Costs since the 19th century
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
Source: FREIGHT RATES AND PRODUCTIVITYGAINS IN BRITISH TRAMP SHIPPING 1869-1950 by Saif I. Shah Mohammed and Jeffrey G. WilliamsonNBER Working Paper 9531 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w9531)
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
Appendix 2:The Big Mac Index in 2000.
The price tends to be higher in rich countries (e.g., Europe & Japan, compared to China),
and in countrieswith overvalued currencies (e.g., Argentinain 2000).
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
Source: The Economist, January 2003.
Three years later,Big Macs were still expensive in Europe and cheap in China;
but now (2003), they were cheaper still in Argentina.
Why?
Devaluation.
Source: “The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle,” by Kenneth Rogoff, Journal of Economic Literature (1996).
Balassa-Samuelsonrelationship
1/Q
ITF-220 Prof.J.Frankel
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