korea-japan workshop and symposium on
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Korea-Japan Workshop and Symposiumon
Shoichi Ito, Ph.D.Tottori University, Japan
http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jpJuly 23, 2004
World Rice Consumption Promotion Strategies
Fig.1. Per capita consumption of rice for Japan, Taiwan,South Korea and China during 1961 - 2004
0
40
80
120
160
200
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
(Kg)
JapanTaiwanSouth KoreaChina
Source: S.Ito, World Food Statistics & Graphics (http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp)Original data sources: USDA: PS&D View , June 2004; USBC: International Data Base, July 2003.
Milled basis
Declining Demand for Rice in Asia
1. Increases in incomes
2. Westernization of Asian diets
3. Urbanization
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
(Million MT)
Rice
Wheat
Corn
Soybean
Source: S. Ito; World Food Statistics and Graphics (http:/ / worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp), Tottori University, J apan J une 15, 2002. (Original sources are from ERS/ USDA;PS&D View , J une 2004).Note: Rice is milled basis.
Fig.4. Evolution of world total production for rice, wheat, corn and soybeans, ’61-‘04
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
（ 100 万ｔ）
Broiler
Beef&Veal
Pork
Source: S. Ito; World Food Statistics and Graphics (http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp), Tottori University, Japan, June 15, 2004. (Original sources are fromERS/USDA; PS&D View , June 2004).
Fig.6. Evolution of world total production for broiler, beef, and pork, ’61- ‘04(Million MT)
0
20
40
60
80
100
2075 2100 2125 2150
An
nu
al
Incr
emen
ts
0
2
4
6
8
10
Po
pu
lati
on
siz
e
Fig. 13. Long-term world population growth, 1750 to 2150
Millions Billions BillionsMillion
An
nu
al in
crem
ents
Pop
ula
tion
siz
e
Source: United Nation: Long-range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Executive Summary, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange.htm), The World at Six Billion, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm)
Figure 2. Global per capita rice consumption (kg), 1982-2013.
57
58
59
60
6162
63
64
65
66
67
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Actual Projected
Source: USDA, PS&D, and FAPRI, 2004
Understanding for Rice Demand
• Global ag. export competition
• Advancement in production technology
• Limited world population growth
• More supply & less demand for rice
If Asian Rice Consumption decreases….
1. Over-supply of rice
2. Decline global market prices
3. More criticism to high prices…Japan and Korea
4. Asian failure in ag. competition...Poverty in Asian rural areas
What to do for future?
1. Development new strategies for more consumption
2. More feed use
3. Processed food from rice
World rice total consumption, 1960-2013 (FAPRI)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
million mt
World per capita rice consumption, 1960-2013 (FAPRI)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
kg/capita
World rice total consumption, 1960-2007 (USDA)
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Million mt
Source : http://ers.usda.gov/publications/aer767/aer767c.pdf
World rice per capita consumption, 1960-2007 (USDA)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
kg/capita
Source : http://ers.usda.gov/publications/aer767/aer767c.pdf
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