Korea-Japan Workshop and Symposiumon

Shoichi Ito, Ph.D.Tottori University, Japan

http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jpJuly 23, 2004

World Rice Consumption Promotion Strategies

Fig.1. Per capita consumption of rice for Japan, Taiwan,South Korea and China during 1961 - 2004

0

40

80

120

160

200

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

(Kg)

JapanTaiwanSouth KoreaChina

Source: S.Ito, World Food Statistics & Graphics (http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp)Original data sources: USDA: PS&D View , June 2004; USBC: International Data Base, July 2003.

Milled basis

Declining Demand for Rice in Asia

1. Increases in incomes

2. Westernization of Asian diets

3. Urbanization

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

(Million MT)

Rice

Wheat

Corn

Soybean

Source: S. Ito; World Food Statistics and Graphics (http:/ / worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp), Tottori University, J apan J une 15, 2002. (Original sources are from ERS/ USDA;PS&D View , J une 2004).Note: Rice is milled basis.

Fig.4. Evolution of world total production for rice, wheat, corn and soybeans, ’61-‘04

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

（ 100 万ｔ）

Broiler

Beef&Veal

Pork

Source: S. Ito; World Food Statistics and Graphics (http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp), Tottori University, Japan, June 15, 2004. (Original sources are fromERS/USDA; PS&D View , June 2004).

Fig.6. Evolution of world total production for broiler, beef, and pork, ’61- ‘04(Million MT)

0

20

40

60

80

100

2075 2100 2125 2150

An

nu

al

Incr

emen

ts

0

2

4

6

8

10

Po

pu

lati

on

siz

e

Fig. 13. Long-term world population growth, 1750 to 2150

Millions Billions BillionsMillion

An

nu

al in

crem

ents

Pop

ula

tion

siz

e

Source: United Nation: Long-range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Executive Summary, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange.htm), The World at Six Billion, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm)

Figure 2. Global per capita rice consumption (kg), 1982-2013.

57

58

59

60

6162

63

64

65

66

67

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Actual Projected

Source: USDA, PS&D, and FAPRI, 2004

Understanding for Rice Demand

• Global ag. export competition

• Advancement in production technology

• Limited world population growth

• More supply & less demand for rice

If Asian Rice Consumption decreases….

1. Over-supply of rice

2. Decline global market prices

3. More criticism to high prices…Japan and Korea

4. Asian failure in ag. competition...Poverty in Asian rural areas

What to do for future?

1. Development new strategies for more consumption

2. More feed use

3. Processed food from rice

World rice total consumption, 1960-2013 (FAPRI)

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

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1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

million mt

World per capita rice consumption, 1960-2013 (FAPRI)

0

10

20

30

40

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60

70

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

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1982

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2010

2012

kg/capita

World rice total consumption, 1960-2007 (USDA)

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

500.00

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Million mt

Source : http://ers.usda.gov/publications/aer767/aer767c.pdf

World rice per capita consumption, 1960-2007 (USDA)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

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1990

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2000

2002

2004

2006

kg/capita

Source : http://ers.usda.gov/publications/aer767/aer767c.pdf