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United States
Canada
Brazil
Mexico
Japan
Australia
China
India
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Taiwan
Thailand
Euro area
Germany
France
Italy
United Kingdom
Russia
South Africa
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
-2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.*Near-term growth momentum is the difference in percent growth in real GDP for the average of the period 3Q 2018 – 2Q 2019 minus the average of the period of 3Q 2017 – 2Q 2018. **Long-term growth momentum is the difference in percent growth in real GDP for the average of the period 3Q 2018 – 2Q 2019 minus the average of the period of 3Q 2009 – 2Q 2019. Bubble size represents nominal GDP in U.S. dollars at current exchange rates. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Real GDP growth
Nominal GDP:
= 5 trillion USD
Developed markets
Emerging markets
Long-term growth momentum**
Near-
term
gro
wth
mo
men
tum
*
= 10 trillion USD
GDP growth
accelerating
GDP growth
decelerating
GDP growth higher than
long-term trendGDP growth lower than
long-term trend
15
0
25
50
75
100
ConsumerConfidence
WageGrowth
NonfarmPayrolls
HousingStarts
Light VehicleSales
BusinessConfidence
Capex DurableOrders
IndustrialProduction
LeadingEconomic
Index
CreditConditions
Example
Source: BEA, Conference Board U.S., FactSet, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Labor, Wards Intelligence, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Indicators are: Consumer Confidence – Monthly survey index of how consumers perceive their own financial status and the general economy; Wage Growth – Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers; Nonfarm Payrolls – Monthly change in U.S. nonfarm employment (three-month moving average); Housing Starts – Number of private housing units that construction has started within a specified timeframe; Light Vehicle Sales – Cars and passenger trucks sold in a given month; Business Confidence –Monthly survey of Chief Executive Officers about their outlook for the economy; Capex – Monthly new orders of non-defense capital goods (excluding aircraft); Durable Orders –Monthly new orders of durable goods in the manufacturing sector, seasonally adjusted; Industrial Production – Monthly output of the industrial sector; Leading Economic Index – An index aggregating values of 10 key variables intended to forecast future U.S. economic activity; Credit Conditions – Leading Credit Index that aggregates performance of six financial market instruments to track credit conditions in the U.S. economy.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
U.S. business cycle indicatorsCurrent percentile rank relative to range of data since Jan. 1990
Hot
Cold
Consumers Businesses
3 mth
ago
Latest
29
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•
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•
•
•
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
46
48
50
52
54
56
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
Contribution to real GDP growthYear-over-year change
Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ IndicesLevel
Electricity consumptionYear-to-date, year-over-year change
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) CEIC, National Bureau of Statistics of China; (Top right) Caixin/Markit, J.P. Morgan Economic Research; (Bottom right) CEIC, China Electricity Council.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Net exports
Gross capital formation (investment)
Consumption
GDP
Secondary
Tertiary
9/2019: 8.7%
9/2019: 3.0%
Manufacturing
Services 10/2019: 51.7
10/2019: 51.1
Year-to-
date: 6.2%
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Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) FactSet; (Right) BIS. G4 are the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve. *Key deposit rates that central banks charge commercial banks on their excess reserves. **The BoJ has adopted a three-tier system in which a negative interest rate of -0.1% will be applied to the policy rate balance of the aggregate amount of all financial institutions that hold current accounts at the BoJ. The UK deposit rate has not been actively used as a monetary policy tool since late 2017. ***Count covers the 38 central banks included in the Bank for International Settlements’ central bank policy monitor. Year-to-date data reflect most recently available as of 30/09/19. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Policy rateDeposit
rate*
Eurozone 0.0% -0.5%
Japan** -0.1 to 0.0% -0.1%
UK 0.75% 0.5%
U.S. 1.5 to 1.75% 1.6%
Changes in central bank policy ratesNumber of hikes or cuts***
G4 central bank key policy ratesPer annum
Developed markets
Emerging marketsRate hikes
Rate cutsDeveloped markets
Emerging markets
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19YTD
23
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•
•
•
•
0.0x
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
3.0x
3.5x
4.0x
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
Total social financingRMB billions Year-over-year change, 3MMA
Chinese credit impulse and new orders% of nominal GDP, year-over-year change Difference from one year ago
Credit growth to GDP growthCredit*, ratio, year-over-year change, 3-month moving average
Source: CEIC, People’s Bank of China, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top) China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Shanghai Clearing House; (Bottom right) Ministry of Finance of China. Credit growth, and credit impulse, to GDP growth ratio utilize rolling 12-month nominal GDP and credit stock. CPI stands for consumer price index and PPI stands for producer price index. *Stock of credit to the real economy, defined as the net total social financing plus government financing. **Wenzhou SME crisis refers to the wave of bankruptcies and funding problems faced by a large number of SMEs in Wenzhou in 2011. ***LGFV refers to local government financing vehicle. ****Credit impulse measures the year-over-year change of credit flow (net total social financing plus government financing) as a percentage of nominal GDP. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Rapid rebound in CPI & PPI
Credit impulse**** (advanced 6 months)
Global composite PMI - New orders
Total social financing
Global Financial Crisis
Loosening:
216bps rate cuts,
4tn stimulus
Tightening: 125bps
rate hikes, BASEL III
adoption
Wenzhou small and medium
enterprise (SME) crisis**
Interbank
liquidity
crunchLoosening: 56bps
rate cuts, trust
boom
Tightening:
shadow banking
tightening
Loosening:
165bps rate
cuts, LGFV
debt swap***
A-share
market crash
Tightening
Rate cut
Bank loans + direct financing
Off-balance sheet financing
Loosening: RRR cuts
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
'15 '16 '17 '18 '19-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
13
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Source: FactSet, International Monetary Fund, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Net debt is the gross debt of a country less any financial assets. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Net government debt to GDP and 10-year local currency government bond yield*
Net Debt to GDP Yield
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
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Developed markets political timeline
Emerging markets political timeline
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
December China
Central Economic
Work Conference
March China
National People’s
Congress
2020
2020
September
Hong Kong
Legislative
Council election
15 April
South Korea
Legislative election
11 January Taiwan
Presidential &
Legislative elections
June Global
WTO Ministerial
Meeting
12 December UK
General elections
31 January UK
New Brexit Deadline
7 May UK
Local elections
3 November U.S.
Presidential elections
3 November U.S.
House of Representatives
& Senate elections
21-22 November
Saudi Arabia
G20 Summit
27
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-1.6 -1.6
-1.2-1.1 -0.9
-0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5
-0.10.2
0.4
1.3 1.41.5
3.1
1.0
-4
-2
0
2
4
Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.*The real trade-weighted exchange rate index is the weighted average of a market’s currency relative to a basket of other major currencies adjusted for the effects of inflation. The weights are determined by comparing the relative trade balances, in terms of one market’s currency, with other markets within the basket. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Currency deviation from 10-year average in real effective exchange rate* termsNumber of standard deviations away from average
FX above
long-term
average
FX below
long-term
average
Current
Max
Min
64
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-4 -2 0 2 4
Commodity Index
Agriculture
Natural Gas
Oil
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Gold
Example
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) CME; (Right) Barclays, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, MSCI. Commodities are represented by the appropriate Bloomberg Commodity sub-index priced in U.S. dollars. Crude oil shown is West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. Other commodity prices are represented by futures contracts. Z-scores are calculated using daily prices over the past five years. Based on Bloomberg Commodity Index (Comdty.); MSCI ACWI Select – Energy Producers IMI, Metals & Mining Producers ex Gold & Silver IMI, Gold Miners IMI, Agriculture Producers IMI (Energy (E), M&M (E), Gold (E), Agri. (E)); Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Credit – Corporate Energy Index (Energy (FI)); Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate High Yield Metals & Mining Index (U.S. M&M (FI)); Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Credit – Corporate Metals & Mining Index (Euro M&M (FI)); J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Corporate Credit – Corporate Metals & Mining Index (EM M&M (FI)).5-year total return data is used to calculate annualized returns (Ann. Ret.) and 5-year price return data is used to calculate annualized volatility (Ann. Vol.) and reflects the period 31/10/14 – 31/10/19. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Commodity pricesCommodity price z-scores for the past five years, USD per unit
Returns
High level
Current
Low level
$2.6
$39
$1,515
$54
$1.6 $4.8
$66
$1,560
$96$26
$1,050
$37
$144$84
$117
$195$144
$187
$127$73
$79
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q '19 Ann. Ret. Ann. Vol.
Euro M&M
(FI)Energy (FI) Gold (E) M&M (E)
Euro M&M
(FI)Gold (E) Gold (E) Gold (E)
8.6% -7.3% 62.9% 37.5% -0.9% 6.0% 11.2% 35.7%
Energy (FI)EM M&M
(FI)M&M (E) Agri. (E)
US M&M
(FI)
EM M&M
(FI)
EM M&M
(FI)M&M (E)
2.1% -10.9% 57.8% 20.3% -3.5% 2.3% 6.6% 24.3%
Agri. (E) Agri. (E)US M&M
(FI)
EM M&M
(FI)Energy (FI) Energy (FI)
US M&M
(FI)Energy (E)
-0.2% -13.7% 45.5% 14.7% -3.7% 1.4% 4.3% 19.4%
EM M&M
(FI)
Euro M&M
(FI)
EM M&M
(FI)
US M&M
(FI)
EM M&M
(FI)
Euro M&M
(FI)Agri. (E) Comdty.
-0.8% -16.1% 32.4% 9.9% -4.1% 0.9% 3.6% 13.7%
US M&M
(FI)Energy (E) Energy (E) Gold (E) Agri. (E)
US M&M
(FI)Energy (FI)
US M&M
(FI)
-4.4% -20.6% 29.2% 9.4% -8.9% 0.8% 3.5% 13.2%
Energy (E)US M&M
(FI)
Euro M&M
(FI)Energy (E) Comdty. Comdty.
Euro M&M
(FI)Agri. (E)
-15.1% -23.7% 21.9% 9.1% -11.2% -1.8% 2.1% 11.8%
Gold (E) Comdty. Agri. (E) Energy (FI) Energy (E) Agri. (E) M&M (E)EM M&M
(FI)
-16.4% -24.7% 15.7% 9.0% -11.4% -3.0% 0.2% 10.8%
Comdty. Gold (E) Comdty.Euro M&M
(FI)Gold (E) Energy (E) Energy (E)
Euro M&M
(FI)
-17.0% -26.3% 11.8% 3.9% -13.0% -6.3% -1.8% 8.2%
M&M (E) M&M (E) Energy (FI) Comdty. M&M (E) M&M (E) Comdty. Energy (FI)
-19.0% -40.1% 11.1% 1.7% -17.8% -11.8% -6.7% 5.8%
2014 - 2019
66
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DMEM
Europe
AxJAPxJ
U.S.
U.S. HY
U.S. bonds
Cash
Hedge fund - mkt neutral
Hedge fund - macro
Hedge fund - distressedHedge fund - rel val
Private real estateAPxJ HD
AxJ HD
DM HD
EM HD
Gold
Commodities
REITs
EMD
Asian bonds
Conservative
Balanced
Aggressive
High yielding
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Dow Jones, FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Hypothetical portfolios were created to illustrate different risk/return profiles and are not meant to represent actual asset allocation. U.S. dollar total return calculations are based on MSCI Total Return, Bloomberg Barclays and J.P. Morgan indices. AxJ stands for MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan and APxJ stands for MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan. *Monthly total returns between 31/10/04 and 31/10/19 used for all asset classes.Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Annualized returns and volatilityTotal returns in USD*
Annualized volatility
An
nu
alized
retu
rns
Equities
Bonds and cash
Portfolios
High dividend (HD) equities
Alternatives
Hypothetical portfolio construction
Conservative Balanced Aggressive High yielding
DM equities 10% 30% 20% DM HD equities 25%
EM equities 5% 10% 40% EM HD equities 10%
U.S. HY 10% 15% 10% APxJ HD equities 10%
U.S. bonds 25% 10% 5% U.S. HY 20%
Cash 35% 10% 0% EMD 15%
EMD 10% 15% 5% Asian bonds 15%
REITs 5% 10% 20% REITs 5%
76
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•Source: Alerian, Bank of America, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Clarkson, Drewry Maritime Consultants, FactSet, Federal Reserve, FTSE, MSCI, NCREIF, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Global Transport: Levered yields for transport assets are calculated as the difference between charter rates (rental income), operating expenses, debt amortization and interest expenses, as a percentage of equity value. Yields for each of the sub-vessel types above are calculated and respective weightings are applied to each of the sub-sectors to arrive at the current levered yields for Global Transportation; asset classes are based on NCREIF ODCE (Private Real Estate), FTSE NAREIT Global/USA REITs (Global/U.S. REITs), MSCI Global Infrastructure Asset Index (Infrastructure Assets), Bloomberg Barclays U.S Convertibles Composite (Convertibles), Bloomberg Barclays Global High Yield Index (Global HY bonds), J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index EM Global (GBI-EM) (Local EMD), J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global (EMBIG) (USD EMD), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index Non-investment Grade (Asia HY bonds), MSCI Emerging Markets (EM Equity), MSCI Emerging Markets High Dividend Yield Index (EM High Div. Equity), MSCI World High Dividend Yield Index (DM High Div. Equity), MSCI Europe (Eur. Equity), MSCI USA (U.S. Equity). Transport yield is as of 30/06/19, Infrastructure 30/06/19, EM High Div. Equity and DM High Div. Equity 31/10/19. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Asset class yields
Equity
Fixed income
Alternatives
9.4%
7.3%
6.1%
5.8%
5.3%5.1%
4.3%
4.0% 3.9%3.8%
3.6%3.4%
2.9% 2.8%
1.9%1.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Globaltransport
Asia HYbonds
GlobalHY bonds
Local cur.EMD
EM highdiv. equity
USDEMD
Infrastructureassets
GlobalREITs
DM highdiv. equity
U.S.REITs
Eur.equity
Privatereal estate
EMequity
Convertibles U.S.equity
U.S.10-year
69
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Yields and correlations of fixed income returns to equities Yield, 10-year correlation between monthly total returns
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, FactSet, ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan Economics Research, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Based on Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury (UST) Bellwether 2y & 10y (2y & 10y UST), Bloomberg Barclays Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), ICE BofAML Country Government (1-10y) (France, Germany, Japan & UK (1-10y)), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate, Credit – Investment Grade & High Yield (U.S. Aggregate, IG & HY), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Floating Rate (U.S. Floating Rate), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Securitized – Mortgage-Backed Securities (U.S. MBS), Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European High Yield (Europe HY), J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global (Local EMD), J.P. Morgan EMBI Global (USD EMD), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit (JACI) (USD Asia Credit), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit (JACI) – High Yield (USD Asia HY), J.P. Morgan CEMBI (USD EM Corporate Credit), J.P. Morgan Asia Diversified (JADE) (Local Asia). *Correlations are based on 10-years of monthly returns. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Government
Credit
Emerging Market
Higher yielding
sectors
Stronger correlation
to equities
Government & Credit
2y UST10y UST TIPS
Japan (1-10y)Germany (1-10y)
France (1-10y)
UK (1-10y)
U.S. Aggregate
U.S. IG
U.S. HY
U.S. Floating RateU.S. MBS
Europe HY
Local EMDUSD EMD
USD Asia Credit
USD Asia HY
USD EMD corporates
Local Asia
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Yie
ld
Correlation to MSCI AC World*
51
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•
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Based on Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Bellwethers Index (2, 5, 10, 30-year U.S. Treasuries), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Notes Index (TIPS), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Floating Rate Notes Index (U.S. Floating Rate), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Securitized – MBS Index (U.S. MBS), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate – Investment Grade Index (U.S. Corporates), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate – High Yield Index (U.S. High Yield), J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global (EMBIG) (USD EMD), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index (USD Asia Credit), J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index – EM Global (GBI-EM) (Local EMD). *Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of the principal) of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates and is expressed as number of years. **Correlation measured over past 10 years of monthly total returns. Rising interest rates mean falling bond prices, while declining interest rates mean rising bond prices. Change in bond price is calculated using both duration and convexity, assuming a 1% fall in relevant local interest rate. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Illustrative impact of a 100bps fall in interest ratesAssumes a parallel shift in the yield curve and steady spreads
Price return
Total return
U.S. Treasuries 31/10/19 31/12/18Duration*
(years)
Correlation** to
10-year UST
2-Year 1.52% 2.48% 1.96 0.76
5-Year 1.51% 2.51% 4.8 0.93
TIPS 0.15% 0.98% 4.7 0.71
10-Year 1.69% 2.69% 9.02 1.00
30-Year 2.17% 3.02% 22.1 0.92
Sector
U.S. Floating Rate 2.32% 3.64% 0.13 -0.34
U.S. MBS 2.45% 3.39% 2.86 0.83
U.S. Investment Grade 2.84% 4.20% 7.88 0.67
U.S. High Yield 5.70% 7.95% 3.11 -0.20
USD EMD 5.03% 7.05% 7.69 0.25
USD Asia Credit 3.78% 5.19% 5.32 0.34
Local EMD 5.81% 7.20% 4.81 -0.03
Yield / Yield to worst
0.1%
2.0%
2.8%
4.8%
5.0%
8.5%
8.3%
2.0%
4.9%
4.9%
9.5%
25.1%
2.4%
4.6%
8.4%
8.6%
10.8%
11.4%
13.4%
3.6%
6.6%
6.9%
11.3%
27.4%
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32%
U.S. Floating Rate
U.S. MBS
U.S. HY
USD Asia Credit
Local EMD
U.S. IG
USD EMD
2y UST
5y UST
TIPS
10y UST
30y UST
52
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•
•
15%
-6%
-40%
15%
47%
15%
0%
11%
5%
-11%
6%
17%
22%
4% 4%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
'06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 2Q '19
Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) Compustat; (Right) Federal Reserve System. EPS levels are based on annual operating earnings per share except for 2019, which are quarterly. Percentages may not sum due to rounding. USD is the nominal effective exchange rate. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
S&P 500 year-over-year operating EPS growthAnnual growth contribution
S&P 500 sales and the U.S. dollarYear-over-year change Year-over-year change
Sales per share USD (8 mth lead, inverted)
Share of EPS growth 2Q ’19 Avg. '06-'18
Margin -1.3% 3.9%
Revenue 3.0% 3.0%
Share count 2.1% 0.5%
Total EPS growth 3.8% 7.4%
2019
(Quarterly)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19
44
•
•
•
•
Source: FactSet, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Right) CEIC, national statistics agencies. Earnings per share (EPS) used is next 12 months’ aggregate estimate. *Universe of stocks within the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan index are split into three buckets depending on their revenue exposure to their domestic market. Over the time period examined (01/01/09 – 30/09/19), monthly adjustments are made to the buckets to reflect changes in a company's operations over time. Subsequently, earnings-per-share (EPS) for each bucket is calculated by summing the market-value weighted EPS for each company on a monthly basis over the examined period. Each EPS series is then indexed to 100 on 01/01/09. **EM Asia ex-China includes Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Overall exports aggregate is gross domestic product (GDP)-weighted. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. For illustrative purposes only.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.
Domestic vs. exports-oriented Asian companies*MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan, earnings per share, Jan. 2009 = 100
Growth in nominal exports and earnings per shareUSD, year-over-year change
MSCI AC Asia
Pacific ex-Japan EPS
EM Asia ex-China exports**
Less than 70% of
revenue derived
domestically
Between 70% and
95% of revenue
derived domesticallyMore than 95% of
revenue derived
domestically
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19
42
Vincent Juvyns
Luxembourg
Tilmann Galler, CFA
Frankfurt
Maria Paola Toschi
Milan
Shogo Maekawa
Tokyo
Lucia Gutierrez Mellado
Madrid
Tai Hui
Hong Kong
Marcella Chow
Hong Kong
Ian Hui
Hong Kong
Yoshinori Shigemi
Tokyo
Kerry Craig, CFA
Melbourne
Dr. Jasslyn Yeo, CFA
Singapore
Karen Ward
London
Ambrose Crofton
London
Chaoping Zhu, CFA
Shanghai
Jai Malhi
London
Manuel Arroyo Ozores, CFA
Madrid
Agnes Lin
Taipei
Michael Bell, CFA
London
Alex Dryden, CFA
New York
Samantha Azzarello
New York
Dr. David Kelly, CFA
New York
Dr. Cecelia Mundt
New York
Meera Pandit
New York
John Manley
New York
Tyler Voigt, CFA
New York
Gabriela Santos
New York
David Lebovitz
New York
Jordan Jackson
New York
Jennie Li
New York
Hannah Anderson
Hong Kong
Hugh Gimber, CFA
London
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