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Lunar Exploration Innovation Challenges
PM Challenge 2010
Robert M. KelsoManager, Lunar Commercial Services
February 2010
Used with Permission
Utilization of the Moon for NASA’s Vision
Monday, February 22, 2010 2
•ON the Moon•Exploration and technology development/demonstration to reduce risk/cost avoidance for systems supporting the Altair lander and LSS
•FROM the Moon•Observations from the moon toward earth for earth/climate “whole-disc” assessments•Observations from the moon away from earth for far-side astronomy
oRadio astronomyoAstrophysicsoHeliophysics
•ABOUT the Moon •Support scientific research leading to increased understanding about the Moon
oIts process, evolution, chronological datingTied to NRC report
Monday, February 22, 2010 3
Lunar Commercialization Goal
• Obtain lunar data for NASA through commercial services– Utilize emerging commercial capability to land
payloads on the Moon• Includes lunar data purchase and/or NASA lunar instrument
delivery
– Cost to NASA that is less than a dedicated NASA robotic mission
– Contracted services could begin in late 2011 timeframe
Fundamental Change for NASA
Apollo ModelFrom NASA as the
customer funding prime contractors on a cost plus
fixed fee basis
Commercial –(COTS/CRS) Model
To NASA as a customer and partner, working with other customers, financiers, and emerging space companies on fixed
price basis to secure capabilities, services and products
Increased Private Sector
Resources
5• 5
Business Model Feasibility•The shift from small market, highly complex projects to manageable components with appeal to expanded markets enables greater commercial participation
Small
Large
SimpleComplex
Communications Services
Surface Transportation
Landers Launchers
- Evolution of the Discussion -
Key drivers include:• Complexity• Scale• Timing/frequency• Uncertainty
MarketSize
Product Development Cost Structure
6• 6
Demand Framework
- US Government -
- Non-US Government -
- Space Focused -
- Broad Focus -
ESMD
Science Directorate
Planetary Science
Astrophysics/Heliophysics
Earth Science
Tier 1
Tier 2
Academics
7
LADEE(Lunar Orbiter)
GRAIL(Lunar Orbiter Pair)
Current & Planned NASA Lunar Missions
NASA Unmanned Spacecraft
NASA Instruments
Constellation: Current View
Blue = Launched Green = Funded Yellow = Proposed Purple = Inactive
LRO & LCROSS
(Lunar Orbiterand Impactor)
2008 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 US LQ 7
(Lunar Lander)US ILN
(Lunar Landers)US LQ 8
(Lunar Lander) US LQ 9(Lunar Lander)
Mini-SAR*(Chandrayaan-1)
Moon Minarology Mapper*
(Chandrayaan-1)
Altair IOC(HLR)
ARES-VIOC
8
Luna-Glob 2Lunar Lander
Moon Impact Probe
Current & Planned Lunar Missions:Tier One International Agencies
European Space Agency
Roscosmos
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
Indian Space Research Organisation
Chandrayaan-1Lunar Orbiter
Chandrayaan-2Lunar Orbiter with
Lunar Rover
Indian Manned Lunar Mission
Blue = Launched Green = Funded Yellow = Proposed Red = Discussed
Chang’e 1Lunar Orbiter
SELENE 2/Kaguya 2Lunar Orbiter
Chang’e 3Lunar Rover
Chang’e 4Lunar Sample
Return
Chinese Manned Lunar Mission
Japanese Robotic Lunar Mission
Japanese Manned Lunar Mission
Japanese International Moon Base
Luna-Glob 2Lunar Lander
Luna-Grunt 1Lunar Orbiter,
Lander, andSample Return
Russian Robotic Lunar Base
Assumed by Inference: First Indian Manned Mission
Assumed by Inference: First Japanese Manned Mission
Luna-Grunt 2More AdvancedLunar Orbiter,
Lander, andSample Return
SELENE/KaguyaLunar Orbiter
European Autonomous
Lunar Lander
European Aurora Manned Lunar
Mission Program (possibly with NASA)
2008 ’09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
Chang’e 2More Advanced Lunar OrbiterChina National
Space Agency
Luna-Glob 2Lunar LanderLuna-Glob 2
Lunar Lander
Luna-Glob 1Lunar Orbiterand Impactor
Luna-Glob 1Lunar Orbiterand Impactor
9
Current & Planned Lunar Missions:Tier Two International Agencies
2008 ’09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
British NationalSpace Centre
Blue = Launched Green = Funded Yellow = Proposed Red = Discussed
German Space Agency
Notes
• Other civil space agencies—e.g. Australia, Israel, Brazil, South Africa—have not yet formulated active plans for lunar activity
• Current participants in International Lunar Network (ILN)—signatories to the July 2008 NASA Ames “Statement of Intent” are:
Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States
Canadian Space Agency
Korea Aerospace Research Institute
South Korean Lunar Orbiter
South Korean Lunar Probe
International Lunar Network (ILN) Program (with NASA)
Canadian companies may have manufacturing role in the 4 planned missions launched together
UK MoonLITELunar Orbiter with
Four Impactors
UK MoonRAKERLunar Lander
Lunar Exploration Orbiter (LEO) Lunar Orbiter
10
NASA Driven Lunar TransportDemand Phasing
• 10
2009 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
Ares-VIOC HLR
180 Day Stay
LRO&LCROSS
LADEEGRAIL
US ILN 1, 2, 3, & 4
Potential heavy lift to Moon in advance/lieu of Ares V
Early demand from science/technology demonstrations
Potential commercial resupply of manned outpost
Demand Phase
Time Frame
Description
Early 2010-2013 • Driven by science and technology development objectives in preparation for human return• Transport of instruments (as secondary payloads) and microlanders (GLXP)
2014-2017 • Small (LRO-class) spacecraft and landers such as the ILN probes• Farside missions• International organizations begin lander deployment
2018-2020 • Pre-Positioning of assets, site prep for HLR
Middle 2020-2025 • Driven by increased robotic activity at the Moon & initial human sorties• Emplacement of infrastructure to enable long-duration human stays• Potential to augment Ares V
Late Beyond 2025 • Support of human operations; resupply of human outposts • Emplacement of large-scale and human-serviced science equipment
11
Lunar ObjectivesLunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG)
• LEAG has identified 70 lunar exploration objectives. (Draft Lunar Exploration Roadmap, 2009)– 50 require transport to lunar orbit and/or surface– 46 require data derived from in-situ or orbital
measurement/observation of lunar parameters• 19 are classified as “science” objectives which will likely provide
data towards the other objectives
– 58 are related to human lunar exploration needs or goals– These objectives fall into the following nominal time
phasing*
• 11
Early Middle Late45 56 54
* As defined by the LEAG, where EARLY includes any robotic precursors and activity up to human lunar return; MIDDLE includes activity related to initial outpost build-up to including human stays of >1 lunar day and including part of the lunar night, as well as Robotic missions; and LATE includes activities with Lunar Outpost established, human stays of >30 days, including robotic missions.
12
LEAG Science Objectives: Demand for Lunar Data
• 12Source: LEAG, Lunar Exploration Roadmap, 2009
Early Middle Late Totals by PhaseRegolith Structure & Composition 4 4 4Regolith Weathering 1 1 1Structure and Composition of Lunar Rocks, Crust and Mantle 3 3 3
Terrain- Geological and Geophysical Formations 4 5 5Identification and Characterization of Cold Traps 1 Sunlight/Illuminated Areas (Polar) 1Exospheric 1 1 1Surface Transport & Characterization 4 5 5
Lunar Seismic Tomography 1Lunar Electromagnetic Environment 1 1 1Lunar Dust- Toxicity and Effect on Equipment 1 1TOTAL 22 21 20
Other
Early: 5Middle: 6
Early: 3Middle: 2Late: 1
Parameter: (Lunar Observable/Measurable)
LEAG Science Objectives which Require Data on Parameter by Time Phase
"Science About the Moon"
Lunar Geology
Mapping
Volatiles
Early: 8Late: 8
Middle: 8
Early: 6Late: 5
Middle: 5
Lunar Commercial Payload Delivery
“I have also long believed it should be a balanced program that includes both robotics and human involvement, and our focus will be on the human space flight aspect and that part of the robotics program that links directly to human space flight.”
Norm Augustine on Human Spaceflight Review 5/8/09
LunEx
Strategies for Achieving Commercial Lunar Communications & Navigation (C&N):
Concepts for Industry Comment
Collaboration between Exploration Systems Mission Directorate
Commercial Crew & Cargo Program Office (C3PO)Rob Kelso, Lead
Jon Michael Smith
And
Space Operations Mission DirectorateSpace Communications and Navigation (SCaN)
Program OfficeJim Schier
Mini-ISRU Node and Evaluation of Regolith (MINER)
Commercial Lunar Oxygen
NASA & Commercial Tractor Recover Oxygen from the Lunar Regolith
Rover mounted ISRU Payload
Excavator
NASA Lunar Commercial Services : “what’s new over the last year?”
• Commercial Lunar Payload Delivery/Data-Buy– Goal: “buy the ride” or “buy the data” using commercially-demonstrated
capability …As soon as early 2012
– Service pool from: GLXP, Lockheed “Lunar Express”, others
– NASA collection of lunar data ‘desirement’ list of “demand”: ESMD/SOMD
– Assessing NASA options for advanced purchase commitments and prizes
– Continued discussion w/ NASA Lunar Science Inst. on data acquisition
• Lunar Commodities– Commercially-provided lunar oxygen to support human lunar return
• Life support, water production, propellant
– Performed risk-adjusted cost analysis (RANPC) for Commercial Lunar O2
– ISRU has potential to save >$1B/yr … >5x cost trade
– Seeking funding for early flight test demo of O2 extraction (MINER)Monday, February 22, 2010 16
Lunar Commercial activities this fall….
• Collection of “Orphan” equipment list– Assessment of utilization
– Assessment of early demand vs science value
• Two funded studies– Lunar Transportation Market Assessment (Futron)
– MINER Pre-Phase A conceptual assessment (NASA)
• Assessment of Augustine Report and resultant NASA strategic planning
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