Lunar Exploration Innovation Challenges

PM Challenge 2010

Robert M. KelsoManager, Lunar Commercial Services

February 2010

Used with Permission

Utilization of the Moon for NASA’s Vision

Monday, February 22, 2010 2

•ON the Moon•Exploration and technology development/demonstration to reduce risk/cost avoidance for systems supporting the Altair lander and LSS

•FROM the Moon•Observations from the moon toward earth for earth/climate “whole-disc” assessments•Observations from the moon away from earth for far-side astronomy

oRadio astronomyoAstrophysicsoHeliophysics

•ABOUT the Moon •Support scientific research leading to increased understanding about the Moon

oIts process, evolution, chronological datingTied to NRC report

Monday, February 22, 2010 3

Lunar Commercialization Goal

• Obtain lunar data for NASA through commercial services– Utilize emerging commercial capability to land

payloads on the Moon• Includes lunar data purchase and/or NASA lunar instrument

delivery

– Cost to NASA that is less than a dedicated NASA robotic mission

– Contracted services could begin in late 2011 timeframe

Fundamental Change for NASA

Apollo ModelFrom NASA as the

customer funding prime contractors on a cost plus

fixed fee basis

Commercial –(COTS/CRS) Model

To NASA as a customer and partner, working with other customers, financiers, and emerging space companies on fixed

price basis to secure capabilities, services and products

Increased Private Sector

Resources

5• 5

Business Model Feasibility•The shift from small market, highly complex projects to manageable components with appeal to expanded markets enables greater commercial participation

Small

Large

SimpleComplex

Communications Services

Surface Transportation

Landers Launchers

- Evolution of the Discussion -

Key drivers include:• Complexity• Scale• Timing/frequency• Uncertainty

MarketSize

Product Development Cost Structure

6• 6

Demand Framework

- US Government -

- Non-US Government -

- Space Focused -

- Broad Focus -

ESMD

Science Directorate

Planetary Science

Astrophysics/Heliophysics

Earth Science

Tier 1

Tier 2

Academics

7

LADEE(Lunar Orbiter)

GRAIL(Lunar Orbiter Pair)

Current & Planned NASA Lunar Missions

NASA Unmanned Spacecraft

NASA Instruments

Constellation: Current View

Blue = Launched Green = Funded Yellow = Proposed Purple = Inactive

LRO & LCROSS

(Lunar Orbiterand Impactor)

2008 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 US LQ 7

(Lunar Lander)US ILN

(Lunar Landers)US LQ 8

(Lunar Lander) US LQ 9(Lunar Lander)

Mini-SAR*(Chandrayaan-1)

Moon Minarology Mapper*

(Chandrayaan-1)

Altair IOC(HLR)

ARES-VIOC

8

Luna-Glob 2Lunar Lander

Moon Impact Probe

Current & Planned Lunar Missions:Tier One International Agencies

European Space Agency

Roscosmos

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency

Indian Space Research Organisation

Chandrayaan-1Lunar Orbiter

Chandrayaan-2Lunar Orbiter with

Lunar Rover

Indian Manned Lunar Mission

Blue = Launched Green = Funded Yellow = Proposed Red = Discussed

Chang’e 1Lunar Orbiter

SELENE 2/Kaguya 2Lunar Orbiter

Chang’e 3Lunar Rover

Chang’e 4Lunar Sample

Return

Chinese Manned Lunar Mission

Japanese Robotic Lunar Mission

Japanese Manned Lunar Mission

Japanese International Moon Base

Luna-Glob 2Lunar Lander

Luna-Grunt 1Lunar Orbiter,

Lander, andSample Return

Russian Robotic Lunar Base

Assumed by Inference: First Indian Manned Mission

Assumed by Inference: First Japanese Manned Mission

Luna-Grunt 2More AdvancedLunar Orbiter,

Lander, andSample Return

SELENE/KaguyaLunar Orbiter

European Autonomous

Lunar Lander

European Aurora Manned Lunar

Mission Program (possibly with NASA)

2008 ’09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25

Chang’e 2More Advanced Lunar OrbiterChina National

Space Agency

Luna-Glob 2Lunar LanderLuna-Glob 2

Lunar Lander

Luna-Glob 1Lunar Orbiterand Impactor

Luna-Glob 1Lunar Orbiterand Impactor

9

Current & Planned Lunar Missions:Tier Two International Agencies

2008 ’09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25

British NationalSpace Centre

Blue = Launched Green = Funded Yellow = Proposed Red = Discussed

German Space Agency

Notes

• Other civil space agencies—e.g. Australia, Israel, Brazil, South Africa—have not yet formulated active plans for lunar activity

• Current participants in International Lunar Network (ILN)—signatories to the July 2008 NASA Ames “Statement of Intent” are:

Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States

Canadian Space Agency

Korea Aerospace Research Institute

South Korean Lunar Orbiter

South Korean Lunar Probe

International Lunar Network (ILN) Program (with NASA)

Canadian companies may have manufacturing role in the 4 planned missions launched together

UK MoonLITELunar Orbiter with

Four Impactors

UK MoonRAKERLunar Lander

Lunar Exploration Orbiter (LEO) Lunar Orbiter

10

NASA Driven Lunar TransportDemand Phasing

• 10

2009 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25

Ares-VIOC HLR

180 Day Stay

LRO&LCROSS

LADEEGRAIL

US ILN 1, 2, 3, & 4

Potential heavy lift to Moon in advance/lieu of Ares V

Early demand from science/technology demonstrations

Potential commercial resupply of manned outpost

Demand Phase

Time Frame

Description

Early 2010-2013 • Driven by science and technology development objectives in preparation for human return• Transport of instruments (as secondary payloads) and microlanders (GLXP)

2014-2017 • Small (LRO-class) spacecraft and landers such as the ILN probes• Farside missions• International organizations begin lander deployment

2018-2020 • Pre-Positioning of assets, site prep for HLR

Middle 2020-2025 • Driven by increased robotic activity at the Moon & initial human sorties• Emplacement of infrastructure to enable long-duration human stays• Potential to augment Ares V

Late Beyond 2025 • Support of human operations; resupply of human outposts • Emplacement of large-scale and human-serviced science equipment

11

Lunar ObjectivesLunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG)

• LEAG has identified 70 lunar exploration objectives. (Draft Lunar Exploration Roadmap, 2009)– 50 require transport to lunar orbit and/or surface– 46 require data derived from in-situ or orbital

measurement/observation of lunar parameters• 19 are classified as “science” objectives which will likely provide

data towards the other objectives

– 58 are related to human lunar exploration needs or goals– These objectives fall into the following nominal time

phasing*

• 11

Early Middle Late45 56 54

* As defined by the LEAG, where EARLY includes any robotic precursors and activity up to human lunar return; MIDDLE includes activity related to initial outpost build-up to including human stays of >1 lunar day and including part of the lunar night, as well as Robotic missions; and LATE includes activities with Lunar Outpost established, human stays of >30 days, including robotic missions.

12

LEAG Science Objectives: Demand for Lunar Data

• 12Source: LEAG, Lunar Exploration Roadmap, 2009

Early Middle Late Totals by PhaseRegolith Structure & Composition 4 4 4Regolith Weathering 1 1 1Structure and Composition of Lunar Rocks, Crust and Mantle 3 3 3

Terrain- Geological and Geophysical Formations 4 5 5Identification and Characterization of Cold Traps 1 Sunlight/Illuminated Areas (Polar) 1Exospheric 1 1 1Surface Transport & Characterization 4 5 5

Lunar Seismic Tomography 1Lunar Electromagnetic Environment 1 1 1Lunar Dust- Toxicity and Effect on Equipment 1 1TOTAL 22 21 20

Other

Early: 5Middle: 6

Early: 3Middle: 2Late: 1

Parameter: (Lunar Observable/Measurable)

LEAG Science Objectives which Require Data on Parameter by Time Phase

"Science About the Moon"

Lunar Geology

Mapping

Volatiles

Early: 8Late: 8

Middle: 8

Early: 6Late: 5

Middle: 5

Lunar Commercial Payload Delivery

“I have also long believed it should be a balanced program that includes both robotics and human involvement, and our focus will be on the human space flight aspect and that part of the robotics program that links directly to human space flight.”

Norm Augustine on Human Spaceflight Review 5/8/09

LunEx

Strategies for Achieving Commercial Lunar Communications & Navigation (C&N):

Concepts for Industry Comment

Collaboration between Exploration Systems Mission Directorate

Commercial Crew & Cargo Program Office (C3PO)Rob Kelso, Lead

Jon Michael Smith

And

Space Operations Mission DirectorateSpace Communications and Navigation (SCaN)

Program OfficeJim Schier

Mini-ISRU Node and Evaluation of Regolith (MINER)

Commercial Lunar Oxygen

NASA & Commercial Tractor Recover Oxygen from the Lunar Regolith

Rover mounted ISRU Payload

Excavator

NASA Lunar Commercial Services : “what’s new over the last year?”

• Commercial Lunar Payload Delivery/Data-Buy– Goal: “buy the ride” or “buy the data” using commercially-demonstrated

capability …As soon as early 2012

– Service pool from: GLXP, Lockheed “Lunar Express”, others

– NASA collection of lunar data ‘desirement’ list of “demand”: ESMD/SOMD

– Assessing NASA options for advanced purchase commitments and prizes

– Continued discussion w/ NASA Lunar Science Inst. on data acquisition

• Lunar Commodities– Commercially-provided lunar oxygen to support human lunar return

• Life support, water production, propellant

– Performed risk-adjusted cost analysis (RANPC) for Commercial Lunar O2

– ISRU has potential to save >$1B/yr … >5x cost trade

– Seeking funding for early flight test demo of O2 extraction (MINER)Monday, February 22, 2010 16

Lunar Commercial activities this fall….

• Collection of “Orphan” equipment list– Assessment of utilization

– Assessment of early demand vs science value

• Two funded studies– Lunar Transportation Market Assessment (Futron)

– MINER Pre-Phase A conceptual assessment (NASA)

• Assessment of Augustine Report and resultant NASA strategic planning