jochen schwarz & holger maiwald bauhaus-universität weimar, earthquake damage analysis center...

Jochen Schwarz & Holger Maiwald

Bauhaus-Universität Weimar, Earthquake Damage Analysis Center

Damage and loss prediction model Damage and loss prediction model

based on the vulnerability of building typesbased on the vulnerability of building types

4th International Symposium on Flood Defence:

Managing Flood Risk, Reliability and Vulnerability, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, May 6-8, 2008

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

MotivationMotivation

Residential buildings

1.706 Mio. €

Forestry and agriculture79 Mio. €

Infrastructure other sectors

111 Mio. €Emergency

management136 Mio. €

Content529 Mio. €

Governmentalinfrastructure

928 Mio. €

Communalinfrastructure1.287 Mio. €

Commercial sector

1.420 Mio. €

Reasons for the study Reasons for the study

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Distribution of losses in Saxony after the flood 2002*

* after Sächsische Staatskanzlei (2002)

Reasons for the study Reasons for the study

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Building type: masonryDamage grade: D2

Primary influence factor:Inundation level

Building type: masonryDamage grade: D2-3 (slight settlements)

Primary influence factor:Inundation level

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Reasons for the studyReasons for the study

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

In addition to Flood Action Side, the impact of structural parameters (Resistance Side) has to be considered.

Can the procedures developed for the Risk Analysis of Earthquakes be adapted to Flood Risk Analysis procedures?

If “yes”: Development of a Damage and Loss Prediction Model based on an Engineering Evaluation System of Buildings

Reasons for the study Reasons for the study

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Building type: clayDamage grade: D5

Special influence factor:Flow velocity and circulations

Building type: masonry with clay mortarDamage grade: D5

Primary influence factor:Inundation level Flow velocity

„Step 1“

Reasons for the study Reasons for the study

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Inundation level Flow velocity DurationBuilding type

Building type: clay Building type: masonry

Inundation levelFlow velocityDuration Building type

„Step 1 + 1/2“

Reasons for the study Reasons for the study

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Inundation level Flow velocityDuration Building type

Inundation levelFlow velocity Duration Building type

Building type: masonry (clay mortar)Building type: masonry

Basic elementsBasic elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

0 20 40 60 80 100

Durchfeuchtungsgrad d f [%]

Da

ma

ge

Gra

de

Di

S1

1

2

3

4

5

S8S7

S6

S10 S9

S5

S2S3

S4

Bauweise Überflu-tungshöhe

VerweilzeitFließ-geschwin-digkeit

Einflussparameter

Inundation level [%]

Building type

Inundation level

DurationFlow velocity

Influence parameter

Influence: high moderate low

First approach

Classification of different damage cases (samples S1 - S10)

Basics of the StudyBasics of the StudyEngineering Evaluation System of BuildingsEngineering Evaluation System of Buildings

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Data baseData base

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Dataset 1: EDAC – questionnaire

Saxony August 2002

Baden Württemberg 1978 - 1994

Bavaria September 2005

Saxony April 2006

Dataset 2: MEDIS – telephone interview

Basic elementsBasic elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Criteria Observed effect / measureDamage grade Di

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5

Building physical damage

Penetration of supporting and non-structural walls and the floor slabs

Chemical damage

Pollution (mud, excrements …)

Contamination (oil, chemicals)

Structural damage

Impressed doors and windows

Slight cracks in structural elements

Major cracks / deformations in structural walls and slabs

Settlements

Partial failure of primary structural elements

Collapse of major parts of the building

Rehabilitation measures

Cleaning of penetrated elements

Replacement of extension elements

Replacement of non-structural elements

Replacement of structural elements

Demolition of building required

„New Step“

Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Damage grade D1

Drawing Example

No structural damageSlight non-structural damage

Only penetration and pollution

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Damage grade D2

Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades

Drawing Example

No to slight structural damageModerate non-structural damage

Slight cracks in supporting elementsImpressed doors and windowsContaminationReplacement of extension elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Damage grade D3

Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades

Drawing Example

Moderate structural damageHeavy non-structural damage

Major cracks and/or deformations in supporting walls and slabsSettlementsReplacement of non-structural elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Damage grade D4

Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades

Drawing Example

Heavy structural damageVery heavy non-structural damage

Structural collapse of supporting walls, slabsReplacement of sructural elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Drawing Example

Damage grade D5

Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades

Very heavy structural damageVery heavy non-structural damage

Collapse of the building or of major parts of the buildingDemolition of building required

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Basic elements Basic elements

1

2

3

4

5

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Inundation level hgf [m]

Da

ma

ge

gra

de

Di

1

2

3

4

5

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Inundation level hgf [m]

Da

ma

ge

gra

de

Di

Dataset 1 „EDAC“ Dataset 2 „MEDIS“

Main building type (masonry) Other building types

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Basic elements Basic elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Dataset „EDAC“

Dataset „EDAC + MEDIS“

Masonry buildings

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Basic elements Basic elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Classification of building types in vulnerability classes

Most likely vulnerability class

Probable range of scatter

Range of less probable, exceptional cases

Classification of building type Flood vulnerability class HW-VC

Main building type short A B C D E

Clay Clay

Prefabricated PF

Framework FW

Masonry MW

Reinforced concrete RC

Flood resistant designed buildings FRD

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Basic elements Basic elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Flood vulnerability class HW-E

Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau- und Wohnungswesen: Planen und Bauen von Gebäuden in hochwasser-gefährdeten Gebieten

Bauhaus-Universität WeimarInstitute for Foundations and Soil Mechanics

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Basic elements Basic elements

Building types Flood vulnerability classes

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Specific Vulnerability Functions of type: Dm = f (hgf)

1

2

3

4

5

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Inundation level hgf [m]

Da

ma

ge

gra

de

Dm

PF

FW

Clay

MW

RC

1

2

3

4

5

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Inundation level hgf [m]

Da

ma

ge

gra

de

Dm

HW-A

HW-B

HW-C

HW-D

Dm - Mean damage grade

hgf - Inundation level over ground floor

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Basic elements Basic elements

Damage grades Dm Buildings (without specification)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Specific Vulnerability Functions of type: Dm = f (hgl, vfl)

1

2

3

4

5

0 1 2 3 4 5

Specific energy height H [m]

Da

ma

ge

gra

de

Dm

1

2

3

4

5

0 1 2 3 4 5

Specific energy height H [m]

Da

ma

ge

gra

de

Dm

H = hgl + (vfl²/2g) hgl - Inundation level over ground level

vfl - Flow velocity

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Basic elements Basic elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

0

25

50

75

100

125

0 1 2 3 4 5

Inundation level hgl [m]

Lo

ss [

%]

Losses (MDR) and impact parameters

H = hgl + (vfl²/2g) hgl

0

25

50

75

100

125

0 1 2 3 4 5

Specific energy height H [m]

Lo

ss

[%

]

Inundation level hgf

Lo

ss

[%

]

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Basic elements Basic elements

SDF 1b: Example for HW-C,

with cellar

SDF 2: Example for floor number n,

with cellar (under preparation)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Specific Damage Functions (SDF i)

Inundation level hgf

Lo

ss

[%

]

1 floor

2 floors

3 floors

4 floors

D5

D4

D3

D2

D1

Case studiesCase studies

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

1

23

Case studies

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Study areas in Saxony

1 – Eilenburg

2 – Döbeln

3 – Grimma

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Case studies Case studies

Observed damage grades Re-Interpretation

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

no damage observed no damage data available

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

no damage observed no damage data available

Mean damage grades in the

ATKIS- land use areas (MDm):

Study area 1: Eilenburg

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Case studies Case studies

Single Buildings ATKIS-land use areas

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Mean Damage Ratio

(MDR) in [%]

Study area 2: Döbeln

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 >100

no damage observed

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 >100

no damage observed

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Case studies Case studies

Consideration of the inundation level;

Dm = f (hgf)

Consideration of inundation level

and flow velocity; Dm = f (hgl, vfl)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

no damage observed no damage data available

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

no damage observed no damage data available

Mean damage grades in the

ATKIS- land use areas (MDm):

Study area 3: Grimma

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Case studies Case studies

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Study area Level Reference Losses in [Mio. €]

Reported EDAC – loss model

1 Microscale

Residential building stock

83.3 89.9

Total building stock 146.0 166.3

2 Microscale

Residential building stock

61.9 71.8

Total building stock 145.0 149.4

3 MesoscaleResidential building stock

58.5 62.2

ConclusionsConclusions

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Conclusion (I) Conclusion (I)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Result: Damage and loss prediction model based on an engineering evaluation system of buildings including:

- a unified definition of global structural Damage Grades (Di) - Specific Flood Vulnerability Classes (HW-A to HW-E)- Specific Vulnerability Functions (SVF) of type: Dm = f (hgf) Dm = f (hgl, vfl) - Specific Damage Functions (SDF) of type: Loss [%] = f (hgf, HW-VC, n, poc) Loss [%] = f (hgf, Di,)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Conclusion (II) Conclusion (II)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

The Results and developed Tools:

- enable the reinterpretation of damage and loss parameters, are suited for damage and loss prediction

- enable the identification of critical zones are suited for disaster management decisions (short- and long-term)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types

Thanks for

Contact:

http://www.edac.biz

Project ManagementFunding Coordination

RIMAX-MEDIS