jochen schwarz & holger maiwald bauhaus-universität weimar, earthquake damage analysis center...
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Jochen Schwarz & Holger Maiwald
Bauhaus-Universität Weimar, Earthquake Damage Analysis Center
Damage and loss prediction model Damage and loss prediction model
based on the vulnerability of building typesbased on the vulnerability of building types
4th International Symposium on Flood Defence:
Managing Flood Risk, Reliability and Vulnerability, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, May 6-8, 2008
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
MotivationMotivation
Residential buildings
1.706 Mio. €
Forestry and agriculture79 Mio. €
Infrastructure other sectors
111 Mio. €Emergency
management136 Mio. €
Content529 Mio. €
Governmentalinfrastructure
928 Mio. €
Communalinfrastructure1.287 Mio. €
Commercial sector
1.420 Mio. €
Reasons for the study Reasons for the study
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Distribution of losses in Saxony after the flood 2002*
* after Sächsische Staatskanzlei (2002)
Reasons for the study Reasons for the study
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Building type: masonryDamage grade: D2
Primary influence factor:Inundation level
Building type: masonryDamage grade: D2-3 (slight settlements)
Primary influence factor:Inundation level
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Reasons for the studyReasons for the study
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
In addition to Flood Action Side, the impact of structural parameters (Resistance Side) has to be considered.
Can the procedures developed for the Risk Analysis of Earthquakes be adapted to Flood Risk Analysis procedures?
If “yes”: Development of a Damage and Loss Prediction Model based on an Engineering Evaluation System of Buildings
Reasons for the study Reasons for the study
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Building type: clayDamage grade: D5
Special influence factor:Flow velocity and circulations
Building type: masonry with clay mortarDamage grade: D5
Primary influence factor:Inundation level Flow velocity
„Step 1“
Reasons for the study Reasons for the study
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Inundation level Flow velocity DurationBuilding type
Building type: clay Building type: masonry
Inundation levelFlow velocityDuration Building type
„Step 1 + 1/2“
Reasons for the study Reasons for the study
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Inundation level Flow velocityDuration Building type
Inundation levelFlow velocity Duration Building type
Building type: masonry (clay mortar)Building type: masonry
Basic elementsBasic elements
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
0 20 40 60 80 100
Durchfeuchtungsgrad d f [%]
Da
ma
ge
Gra
de
Di
S1
1
2
3
4
5
S8S7
S6
S10 S9
S5
S2S3
S4
Bauweise Überflu-tungshöhe
VerweilzeitFließ-geschwin-digkeit
Einflussparameter
Inundation level [%]
Building type
Inundation level
DurationFlow velocity
Influence parameter
Influence: high moderate low
First approach
Classification of different damage cases (samples S1 - S10)
Basics of the StudyBasics of the StudyEngineering Evaluation System of BuildingsEngineering Evaluation System of Buildings
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Data baseData base
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Dataset 1: EDAC – questionnaire
Saxony August 2002
Baden Württemberg 1978 - 1994
Bavaria September 2005
Saxony April 2006
Dataset 2: MEDIS – telephone interview
Basic elementsBasic elements
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Criteria Observed effect / measureDamage grade Di
D1 D2 D3 D4 D5
Building physical damage
Penetration of supporting and non-structural walls and the floor slabs
Chemical damage
Pollution (mud, excrements …)
Contamination (oil, chemicals)
Structural damage
Impressed doors and windows
Slight cracks in structural elements
Major cracks / deformations in structural walls and slabs
Settlements
Partial failure of primary structural elements
Collapse of major parts of the building
Rehabilitation measures
Cleaning of penetrated elements
Replacement of extension elements
Replacement of non-structural elements
Replacement of structural elements
Demolition of building required
„New Step“
Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Damage grade D1
Drawing Example
No structural damageSlight non-structural damage
Only penetration and pollution
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Damage grade D2
Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades
Drawing Example
No to slight structural damageModerate non-structural damage
Slight cracks in supporting elementsImpressed doors and windowsContaminationReplacement of extension elements
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Damage grade D3
Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades
Drawing Example
Moderate structural damageHeavy non-structural damage
Major cracks and/or deformations in supporting walls and slabsSettlementsReplacement of non-structural elements
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Damage grade D4
Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades
Drawing Example
Heavy structural damageVery heavy non-structural damage
Structural collapse of supporting walls, slabsReplacement of sructural elements
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Drawing Example
Damage grade D5
Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades
Very heavy structural damageVery heavy non-structural damage
Collapse of the building or of major parts of the buildingDemolition of building required
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Basic elements Basic elements
1
2
3
4
5
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Inundation level hgf [m]
Da
ma
ge
gra
de
Di
1
2
3
4
5
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Inundation level hgf [m]
Da
ma
ge
gra
de
Di
Dataset 1 „EDAC“ Dataset 2 „MEDIS“
Main building type (masonry) Other building types
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Basic elements Basic elements
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Dataset „EDAC“
Dataset „EDAC + MEDIS“
Masonry buildings
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Basic elements Basic elements
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Classification of building types in vulnerability classes
Most likely vulnerability class
Probable range of scatter
Range of less probable, exceptional cases
Classification of building type Flood vulnerability class HW-VC
Main building type short A B C D E
Clay Clay
Prefabricated PF
Framework FW
Masonry MW
Reinforced concrete RC
Flood resistant designed buildings FRD
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Basic elements Basic elements
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Flood vulnerability class HW-E
Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau- und Wohnungswesen: Planen und Bauen von Gebäuden in hochwasser-gefährdeten Gebieten
Bauhaus-Universität WeimarInstitute for Foundations and Soil Mechanics
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Basic elements Basic elements
Building types Flood vulnerability classes
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Specific Vulnerability Functions of type: Dm = f (hgf)
1
2
3
4
5
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Inundation level hgf [m]
Da
ma
ge
gra
de
Dm
PF
FW
Clay
MW
RC
1
2
3
4
5
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Inundation level hgf [m]
Da
ma
ge
gra
de
Dm
HW-A
HW-B
HW-C
HW-D
Dm - Mean damage grade
hgf - Inundation level over ground floor
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Basic elements Basic elements
Damage grades Dm Buildings (without specification)
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Specific Vulnerability Functions of type: Dm = f (hgl, vfl)
1
2
3
4
5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Specific energy height H [m]
Da
ma
ge
gra
de
Dm
1
2
3
4
5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Specific energy height H [m]
Da
ma
ge
gra
de
Dm
H = hgl + (vfl²/2g) hgl - Inundation level over ground level
vfl - Flow velocity
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Basic elements Basic elements
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
0
25
50
75
100
125
0 1 2 3 4 5
Inundation level hgl [m]
Lo
ss [
%]
Losses (MDR) and impact parameters
H = hgl + (vfl²/2g) hgl
0
25
50
75
100
125
0 1 2 3 4 5
Specific energy height H [m]
Lo
ss
[%
]
Inundation level hgf
Lo
ss
[%
]
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Basic elements Basic elements
SDF 1b: Example for HW-C,
with cellar
SDF 2: Example for floor number n,
with cellar (under preparation)
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Specific Damage Functions (SDF i)
Inundation level hgf
Lo
ss
[%
]
1 floor
2 floors
3 floors
4 floors
D5
D4
D3
D2
D1
Case studiesCase studies
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
1
23
Case studies
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Study areas in Saxony
1 – Eilenburg
2 – Döbeln
3 – Grimma
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Case studies Case studies
Observed damage grades Re-Interpretation
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
no damage observed no damage data available
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
no damage observed no damage data available
Mean damage grades in the
ATKIS- land use areas (MDm):
Study area 1: Eilenburg
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Case studies Case studies
Single Buildings ATKIS-land use areas
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Mean Damage Ratio
(MDR) in [%]
Study area 2: Döbeln
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 >100
no damage observed
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 >100
no damage observed
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Case studies Case studies
Consideration of the inundation level;
Dm = f (hgf)
Consideration of inundation level
and flow velocity; Dm = f (hgl, vfl)
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
no damage observed no damage data available
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
no damage observed no damage data available
Mean damage grades in the
ATKIS- land use areas (MDm):
Study area 3: Grimma
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Case studies Case studies
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Study area Level Reference Losses in [Mio. €]
Reported EDAC – loss model
1 Microscale
Residential building stock
83.3 89.9
Total building stock 146.0 166.3
2 Microscale
Residential building stock
61.9 71.8
Total building stock 145.0 149.4
3 MesoscaleResidential building stock
58.5 62.2
ConclusionsConclusions
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Conclusion (I) Conclusion (I)
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Result: Damage and loss prediction model based on an engineering evaluation system of buildings including:
- a unified definition of global structural Damage Grades (Di) - Specific Flood Vulnerability Classes (HW-A to HW-E)- Specific Vulnerability Functions (SVF) of type: Dm = f (hgf) Dm = f (hgl, vfl) - Specific Damage Functions (SDF) of type: Loss [%] = f (hgf, HW-VC, n, poc) Loss [%] = f (hgf, Di,)
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Conclusion (II) Conclusion (II)
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
The Results and developed Tools:
- enable the reinterpretation of damage and loss parameters, are suited for damage and loss prediction
- enable the identification of critical zones are suited for disaster management decisions (short- and long-term)
Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building types
Thanks for
Contact:
http://www.edac.biz
Project ManagementFunding Coordination
RIMAX-MEDIS