ivan taylor and roman petryk defence r&d canada centre for operational research and analysis
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Defence Research andDevelopment Canada
Recherche et développementpour la défense Canada Canada
QUANTITATIVE MODELS FOR PERFORMANCE AND COST OF COMMAND, CONTROL, COMMUNICATIONS, COMPUTERS AND
INFORMATION SYSTEMS
Ivan Taylor and Roman Petryk
Defence R&D Canada
Centre for Operational Research and Analysis
613 992-4500
Roman.petryk@drdc-rddc.gc.ca
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
OUTLINE
• Background
– Capability Engineering
– Complex Scenario
• Capability Engineering Decision Framework
– Performance, Cost, Schedule, Risk Models
• Putting it all together - Conclusions
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
BACKGROUND
• Defence R&D Canada Trial
– ‘Best Practices in Systems Engineering’
• Domestic Humanitarian Aid/Disaster Relief Scenarios
– Major Canadian City
• Canadian Forces to support Command and Control
– Liaison with Law Enforcement Agencies
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
BACKGROUND
• Command, control, communications, computers and information a capability gap
• Goal of project to come up with viable options to fill the gap
• Viability defined by performance, cost, schedule and risk
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
Capability Engineering Team
• Project Leader
• Operational subject matter experts
• Technological subject matter experts
• Operational research analysts
• Technological support team
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
TECHNOLOGICAL OPTIONS
• Operational and technological subject matter experts
– Three technological options
• The Status Quo
• Option 1 - A Collaborative Information Environment
• Option 2 - A Collaborative Information Environment combined with a Secure Broadband Wireless Network
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
Capability Engineering Decision Framework
• The Operational Research analysts were asked to evaluate these options
• By adding skilled personnel, construct Force Development Options
• Quantitative models for performance, cost, schedule and risk
• Based on data provided by operational subject matter experts on capability engineering team
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
PERFORMANCE MODEL
• Focus on decision quality in Operational Headquarters
• Based on time and effort available to
– Orient, evaluate, decide and implement decisions
• Combine orient and implement functions into communication subtask
• Combine evaluate and decide functions into decision support subtask
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
COMMUNICATION FUNCTION
• Data collected and disseminated is computed as
cc TtPD /• Where
– Pc is the personnel assigned to the task
– t is the task time constraint in hours
– Tc is the person hours required to complete the task
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
DECISION SUPPORT FUNCTION
• Data processed and decision support cycles are computed as
ss TtPC /• Where
– Ps is the personnel assigned to the task
– t is the task time constraint in hours
– Ts is the person hours required to complete the task
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
DECISION QUALITY FIGURE OF MERIT
• We wanted a Figure of Merit function for decision quality
• Gives values between (0,1)
• Demonstrates diminishing returns
• Such that when personnel allocations equal to personnel requirements Q=0.5
• We chose the lognormal function
))(ln( CDQ
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
SINGLE TASK SENSITIVITY RESULTS
Sensitivity Variables
1 2 3 4 5
Task Hours (t)
0.500 0.917 0.986 0.997 0.999
Collection Personnel (Pc)
0.864 0.963 0.986 0.993 0.996
Processing Personnel (Ps)
0.864 0.963 0.986 0.993 0.996
Collection Hours Required (Tc)
0.999 0.995 0.986 0.972 0.954
Processing Hours Required (Ts)
0.999 0.995 0.986 0.972 0.954
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
LIAISON WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES
• Seven tasks
– Establish and maintain contact with law enforcement agencies
– Initiate flow of information for the disaster zone
– Assist with coordinating employment of civil mobility resources
– Assist in crowd control
– Conduct or assist with humanitarian aid/disaster relief distribution
– Assist with policing operations as required and provide assistance to minimize looting
– Handover resources and responsibilities to civilian authority at closure
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
LIAISON WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES
• Operational subject matter experts
– Estimated the hours required to
• Collect and disseminate data
• Process information and provide decision support
– For each of these tasks
– For each of the technological options
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
PERFORMANCE RESULTS*
Personnel Status Quo Option 1 Option 2
70 0.68 0.85 0.90
65 0.81 0.88
60 0.77 0.84
55 0.71 0.80
50 0.74
46 0.69
* We can improve performance and reduce personnel at the same time
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
PERFORMANCE/PERSONNEL TRADEROFFS
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
-25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0
HQ Personnel Reduced
HQ
Per
form
ance
Status Quo
Option 1
Option 2
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
COST MODEL
• Cost model consists of
– Capital Cost
– Maintenance Cost
– Personnel Cost
• We will compute the average annual cost of ownership for each option
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
AMORTIZED CAPITAL COST
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0
Years of Life
An
nu
al A
vera
ge
Co
sts
Cap
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
EXPONENTIALLY INCREASING MAINTENANCE COSTS
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0
Years of Life
An
nu
al A
vera
ge
Co
sts
Maint
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
AVERAGE ANNUAL COST OF OWNERSHIP
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0
Years of Life
Ann
ual A
vera
ge C
osts
Cap
Maint
Total
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
AVERAGE ANNUAL COST OF OWNERSHIP
Costs ($M/yr)
Status Quo Option 1 Option 2
Capital 0.68 1.40 2.12
Maintenance 0.55 1.08 1.63
Personnel* 9.10 9.10 9.10
Average Annual Total
10.3 11.6 12.8
*The average annual cost is dominated by the personnel costs
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
PERFORMANCE / COST TRADEOFFS
Option Number of Personnel
Cost ($M/yr)
Performance (FoM)
Status Quo
70 10.3 0.68
Option 1 70 11.6 0.85
60 10.3 0.77
53 9.4 0.69
Option 2 70 12.8 0.90
60 11.5 0.84
50 10.2 0.74
46 9.7 0.69
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
PERFORMANCE/COST TRADEOFFS
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0
HQ Annual Cost ($M)
HQ
Per
form
ance
%
Opt 2
Opt 1
SQ
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
SCHEDULE AND RISK MODELS
• Project Management Factors
– Schedule defined as years to implement
– Not deployment time
– Risk defined as likelihood of serious problems meeting performance, cost, schedule targets
– Not operational risk
• Based on Technological Readiness Level
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
SCHEDULE MODEL*
0
2
46
8
10
12
1416
18
20
1 3 5 7 9
Technology Readiness Level
Yea
rs to
Impl
emen
t
*Based on lowest Technology Readiness Level in Option
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
RISK MODEL*
0
0.1
0.20.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.70.8
0.9
1
1 3 5 7 9
Technology Readiness Level
Con
fiden
ce
*Based on reliability model using seriesconnections
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Option Status Quo
Option 1 Option 2
Number of Personnel
70 70 60 53 70 60 50 46
Performance (FoM)
0.68 0.85 0.77 0.69 0.90 0.84 0.74 0.69
Cost ($M/yr)
10.3 11.6 10.3 9.4 12.8 11.5 10.2 9.7
Schedule (yrs)
0 2 2 2 9 9 9 9
Risk (FoM)
0 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
CONCLUSIONS
• Demonstrated the Capability Engineering Process for a Complex Scenario
• Produced Quantitative Capability Engineering Decision Framework Models
– Performance, Cost, Schedule and Risk
• Produced Force Development Options for Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Information systems
• Demonstrated that Performance can be improved and Costs reduced within limited Schedule and with acceptable Risk
Defence Research andDevelopment Canada
Recherche et développementpour la défense Canada Canada
QUESTIONS
Roman Petryk
Defence R&D Canada
Centre for Operational Research and Analysis
613 992-4500
Roman.petryk@drdc-rddc.gc.ca
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