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It’s the Democrats’ Turn National Voter Survey of Likely 2016 Voters
January 16, 2015
Methodology
This research was a joint project of Democracy Corps, the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, and the Voter Participation Center. The Voter Participation research related to nonpartisan questions regarding policy topics. The survey polled 950 2016 voters from January 7-11, 2015. Respondents who voted in the 2012 election or registered since were selected from the national voter file. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in 2016.* Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample= +/-3.2 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. 50 percent of respondents were reached by cell phone, in order to account for ever-changing demographics and trying to accurately sample the full American electorate.
*This is a change in methodology for Democracy Corps surveys, which were previously conducted using Random Digit Dialing. 2
Key Findings
3
• Democrats are back: Despite a dispiriting off-year and big consequential losses at the federal and state level, the presidential electorate is open to and enthusiastic about a Democratic agenda and Democratic candidates.
• White working class voters will be key: Whether 2016 can be turned into a big enough year to take back a lot of territory in the Congress and states and whether the presidential candidate can build a formidable wall depends on Democrats and Hillary Clinton doing better with white working class voters, both men and women.
• The President and the Democratic party are up: There has been a big change in the mood of the country—Obama’s approval is up 4 points to 48 percent approve (with 48 percent saying they disapprove). Right direction is up nearly 10 points.
• The presidential race begins robustly for Clinton: Clinton begins with a 6 point lead over Romney and 12
points over Jeb Bush. That result is produced by a surprising level of party consolidation among Democrats and Republicans, though Clinton is winning independents right now in either contest.
• An expanded Democratic coalition strongly backs Clinton: The Rising American Electorate (RAE) and
Democratic coalitions including college-educated women is bigger and fairly strong for Clinton. This could produce a big presidential vote.
• Democrats still have room to grow with unmarried women and blue collar whites: But the starting
strategic challenge is whether the Democrats’ messages, narrative and policy agenda can lift support with unmarried women and the broader RAE as well as the white working class in its great diversity.
Key Findings (continued)
4
• Key groups are dealing in a tougher economy and a different mood: Both unmarried women and blue collar whites see the path to the middle class as increasingly precarious and feel that they are not doing as well as they should be—Jobs do not pay enough to live on, and while the middle class pays a lot in taxes they do not feel the country works for them.
• Economic advocacy and reform are critical: Policies that appeal to the RAE, unmarried women and blue collar whites are all embedded in a broader economic reform agenda that is stronger than any narrative Republicans are offering. These voters are struggling economically and react against an unresponsive and gridlocked government, reform is as essential as economic advocacy to these voters.
• An economic agenda that put women at the center sells: An economic message that focuses on women
scores no differently than an economic message that does not mention gender. There is no price for bringing in the pay equity as policy with men or working class men.
The Shifting Mood
5
New GOP congressional leaders toxic already
6
Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE
feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any
number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If
you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.
34 27 20 15 12 11 7 8 7
50 45 42
36 34 30 21 23 21
34 34 31 32 36 37
33 34 33
42 43 43 47 49 51 43 47 48
Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25)
Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
Jeb Bush
Dems in Congress
GOP in Congress
Dem Party
GOP Party
Mean: 51.0
Net: +8
Mean: 48.6
Mean: 37.7
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 40.0
Mean: 48.0
Mean: 41.9
Net: +2 Net: -22 Net: -11 Net: -21 Net: -1 Net: -15
Mitch McConnell
Net: -24
Mean: 36.6
Net: -27
Mean: 36.4
John Boehner
Favorable ratings for Democrats improve as GOP ratings decline
53
56
51 51
54
51 51
48
50 51
50 50 51 52
50
52
55
53
54 54 55
51 51 49
49 48
45
49
51
47
49 48
46 47 46
45
43
46 46 46 46 47 47
45
48 49 49 50 50
48 48 46 47
46
44 43
46
48
45
47 46
44 45
44 43
41
44 42
43 43
45 45
44
46 45 45
47 47 47 45
44 45 43 41
42
44 44
48
49
45 46 46
45 44
42
42
43
41
43
45
43 43
45
43 44
45 45
41
43
43 40 39 39
41
45
42
46
50
46 46 45
44
42
39 39 40
39
41
43
40 39 41
39 39
41 42
39
42 40
39 38
35 37
43
40
Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14
Barack Obama Democratic Party Democrats in Congress Republican Party Republican Congress
2010 Election
Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE
feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold.
2012 Election
7
2012 2014 2014
Election
*Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past 4 years. Data represents MEAN ratings.
Dramatic improvement in voter mood
33 36
29 26
33 28
16 15 19
29 34 33 32
36 32 39 39 40 42
32 28
23 18
29 27 26 25
23
32
58
56
59 65
58 61
75
76
69 65 59 59 60 58
62
55 55 55 52
59 64
68
76
63 65 69 68 68
61
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15
Right Direction Wrong Track
2011
Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
2012 Election
8
2012 2014 2014
Election
23
32
68
61
November 2014 January 2015
Right Direction Wrong Track
Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have
gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Big change in mood of the country—right direction is up by nearly 10 points
9
44 48 50 48
November 2014 January 2015
Approve Disapprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Obama’s approval rating edges up
10
Presidential Election
11
49 43
Clinton Romney
Clinton Romney
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today,
would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney/Jeb Bush?
Initial vote
+6
Clinton ahead of Romney and doubles her margin against Bush
12
52
40
Clinton Bush
Clinton Bush
+12
49
92
43
4
43
3
40
90
Clinton Romney Clinton Romney Clinton Romney Clinton Romney
Clinton Romney
Parties consolidated with Clinton winning Independents against Romney
Total Democrats Independents Republicans
+89 -86
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney?
13
+6 +3
52
95
46
3
40
4
38
87
Clinton Bush Clinton Bush Clinton Bush Clinton Bush
Clinton Bush
Party bases still consolidated and Independents lean towards Clinton more strongly against Bush
Total Democrats Independents Republicans
+91 -84
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Jeb Bush?
14
+12 +8
49 52
49 43
40 43
Clinton Romney Clinton Romney Clinton Romney
Clinton Romney
Clinton wins a big majority of voters who stayed home in 2014
Total
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney?
15
+12 +6
Drop-Off Voters 2014 Voters
+6
51 45
56 51
62
41 44
39 44
33
Clinton GOP Clinton GOP Clinton GOP Clinton GOP Clinton GOP
Clinton GOP
Clinton vs. GOP: Gender gap very real but marriage gap more so
Total
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney/Jeb Bush?
16
+1 +10
Women Men
+17 +7 +29
Married Women
Unmarried Women
49
58 59 63
72
63
43
34 32 33
15
30
Total RAE Millennial Unmarried Women Minority College Women
Clinton Romney
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today,
would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney?
+6 +24
RAE, unmarried women and college women can deliver a national win for Clinton, but needs working class too
+30 +57 +27 +33
17
49
32 31 33 30
43
60 59 62 60
Total White Non-College White NC Men White NC Women White Seniors
Clinton Romney
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today,
would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney?
+6 -28 -28
Hillary’s win comes with less than 1/3 support among white non-college
-29 -30
18
52
37 33
42 37 40
55 58 51 48
Total White Non-College White NC Men White NC Women White Seniors
Clinton Bush
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today,
would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Jeb Bush?
+12 -18 -25
Hillary gains with white working class women – but against Bush
-9 -11
19
The Mood Among Key Groups
20
32 38 36
46 46
37
61
52 53 48
42
51
Total RAE Unmarried Women Millennials Minority College women
Right Direction Wrong Track
-2 -14 -17 +4 -29
Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have
gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Unmarried women are most pessimistic about the country’s direction of all the base groups
-14
21
32
20 19 21 19
61
76 78 74 76
Total White Non-College White Non-College Men White Non-College Wmn White Seniors
Right Direction Wrong Track
-56 -59 -53 -57 -29
Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have
gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Deep dissatisfaction and pessimism among white working class and seniors
22
48
61 57
62
77
58
48
35 39
34
18
38
Total RAE Unmarried Women Millennial Minority College Women
Approve Disapprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
- +26
Unmarried women still cautious about president: almost 40 percent disapprove
+18 +59 +28 +20
23
48
29 25
32 32
48
67 71
64 66
Total White Non-College White NC Men White NC Women White Seniors
Approve Disapprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
- -38 -46
Older and blue collar voters are deeply negative
-32 -34
24
30
50
24
47
Middle Class Disappearing Middle Class Attainable
Middle Class Blocked much Middle Class Attainable much
Country divided over the core middle class promise
25
Now let me read you some short statements. Please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view.
+3
Getting to or staying in the middle class is harder than ever and nearly impossible with so many jobs that don’t pay enough to live on.
Times are tough but those who work hard can still reach or stay in the middle class.
30 30 38 27 32 28
50 51 58
47 52
47
24 22 16 25 19 17
47 45 39
51 43
50
Middle Class Blocked much Middle Class Attainable much
Unmarried women and minorities most likely to see middle class blocked, but sizeable minority of Millennials too
26
Now let me read you some short statements. Please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view.
Getting to or staying in the middle class is harder than ever and nearly impossible with so many jobs that don’t pay enough to live on.
Times are tough but those who work hard can still reach or stay in the middle class.
Total Millennials College Women
+3 +9
RAE Unmarried
Women Minority
+3 +19 +6 +4
30 32 30 35 30
50 52 47 56
50
24 26 27 25 25
47 46 51
42 44
Middle Class Blocked much Middle Class Attainable Much
Blue collar women are more pessimistic on middle class attainability than blue collar men
27
Now let me read you some short statements. Please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view.
Getting to or staying in the middle class is harder than ever and nearly impossible with so many jobs that don’t pay enough to live on.
Times are tough but those who work hard can still reach or stay in the middle class.
Total White
Non-College White
Seniors
+3
White Non-College Men
White Non-College Wmn
+14 +6 +4 +6
Making sure jobs pay enough to live on is the top priority for this electorate, along with government reform
28
38
36
35
32
27
24
36
33
33
29
Making sure jobs pay enough to live on
Helping working families
Reducing special interest influence in government
Helping middle-class families
Promoting greater equality for women and others
Helping the most vulnerable
Getting control of America's borders
Reducing the size and reach of the federal government
Ending welfare abuse
Helping small businesses
Now I want to ask you about government. I am going to read you a list of statements that describe what some people believe about the role of government today. After I read the list, please pick the three you believe are the most important.
2016 LV’s
Progressive advocacy agenda
Right-wing populism
Neutral Reform
29
54
36
35
34
29
29
32
26
22
28
Making sure jobs pay enough tolive on
Helping working families
Helping middle-class families
Promoting greater equality forwomen and others
Reducing special interestinfluence in government
Helping the most vulnerable
Ending welfare abuse
Getting control of America'sborders
Reducing the size and reach of thefederal government
Helping small businesses
Now I want to ask you about government. I am going to read you a list of statements that describe what some people believe about the role of government today. After I read the list, please pick the three you believe are the most important.
Unmarried Women
49
40
36
35
29
27
30
26
23
30
Making sure jobs pay enough tolive on
Helping middle-class families
Helping working families
Promoting greater equality forwomen and others
Reducing special interestinfluence in government
Helping the most vulnerable
Ending welfare abuse
Getting control of America'sborders
Reducing the size and reach of thefederal government
Helping small businesses
RAE
Democratic base groups lean toward the progressive advocacy agenda, especially making sure jobs pay enough
Blue collar white women also focused on pay and all blue collar groups select reforming government
30
Now I want to ask you about government. I am going to read you a list of statements that describe what some people believe about the role of government today. After I read the list, please pick the three you believe are the most important.
33
30
27
25
20
17
50
42
39
31
Making sure jobs payenough to live on
Reducing specialinterest influence in…
Helping middle-classfamilies
Helping workingfamilies
Promoting greaterequality for women…
Helping the mostvulnerable
Getting control ofAmerica's borders
Reducing the size andreach of the federal…
Ending welfare abuse
Helping smallbusinesses
White Non-College
35
27
27
27
17
13
52
51
35
37
Reducing specialinterest influence in…
Making sure jobs payenough to live on
Helping workingfamilies
Helping middle-classfamilies
Promoting greaterequality for women…
Helping the mostvulnerable
Reducing the size andreach of the federal…
Getting control ofAmerica's borders
Ending welfare abuse
Helping smallbusinesses
White Non-College Men
39
27
26
23
22
19
49
43
33
26
Making sure jobs payenough to live on
Helping middle-classfamilies
Reducing specialinterest influence in…
Helping workingfamilies
Promoting greaterequality for women…
Helping the mostvulnerable
Getting control ofAmerica's borders
Ending welfare abuse
Reducing the size andreach of the federal…
Helping smallbusinesses
White Non-College Women
The policy agenda that reaches
31
Democrats outpace GOP in looking out for women and men (and men and women)
32
25
23
21
20
20
19
16
46
38
36
39
38
36
36
22
30
31
35
34
33
34
41
48
46
51
51
51
54
GOP Much Better Dem Much Better
Dem
-GOP
+18
+15
+13
+12
+10
+10
-5
Looking out for working women and men
Looking out for the interests of working people
Looking out for the interests of the middle class
Being on my side
Addressing issues important to me
The economy
Now, I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans
would do a better job with each issue.
Looking out for working men and women
Democrats receive high ratings from RAE on economic advocacy
33
17
12
10
12
13
11
9
34
25
26
24
26
23
22
27
41
39
39
43
42
43
53
58
60
61
63
63
67
GOP Much Better Dem Much Better
Dem
-GOP
+45
+40
+37
+37
+34
+33
+19
Looking out for working women and men
Looking out for the interests of working people
Looking out for the interests of the middle class
Being on my side
Addressing issues important to me
The economy
Now, I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans
would do a better job with each issue.
Looking out for working men and women
RAE
Unmarried women also give Democrats a wide margin on middle class advocacy
34
18
14
11
9
12
12
11
33
26
28
26
23
23
23
29
38
43
42
43
42
47
55
58
63
66
66
65
70
GOP Much Better Dem Much Better
Dem
-GOP
+47
+43
+43
+40
+35
+32
+22
Looking out for working women and men
Looking out for the interests of working people
Looking out for the interests of the middle class
Being on my side
Addressing issues important to me
The economy
Now, I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans
would do a better job with each issue.
Looking out for working men and women
Unmarried Women
35
35
32
33
26
32
28
29
62
59
53
56
48
51
50
13
21
14
19
19
24
23
26
32
29
35
31
37
37
GOP Much Better Dem Much Better
Dem
-GOP
-13
-14
-17
-21
-24
-27
-36
Looking out for working women and men
Looking out for the interests of working people
Looking out for the interests of the middle class
Being on my side
Addressing issues important to me
The economy
Now, I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think (ROTATE) the Democrats or the
Republicans would do a better job with each issue.
Looking out for working men and women
White Non-College
White non-college voters give GOP advantage on economic advocacy
The Democratic agenda includes advocacy for working families, general Democratic policies and progressive reform policies
36
Social Security/Medicare: Protect Medicare and Social Security so there is no reduction in benefits, and keep the politicians' hands off Social Security so today's and tomorrow's seniors can retire with security.
Working Mothers: Help working mothers by making sure they have access to affordable child care, have paid sick days to care for themselves and their children, and protect pregnant workers from being fired or demoted.
Infrastructure Jobs: Create a long term plan to rebuild America and create new good paying jobs by investing in infrastructure, such as modernizing schools, improving roads, bridges, and airports, and investing in clean energy alternatives that create more new jobs.
Reform Government: Streamline government and reduce waste and bureaucracy to make sure every dollar spent is a dollar spent serving people, not serving government.
Equal Pay: Make sure working women have equal pay to men for doing the same work and, make it possible for women to work in management positions by rewarding companies that provide leave policies that make it possible for all employees to work and balance their work and family needs.
College Affordability: Make college more affordable by expanding the tuition tax credit that allows students to claim up to four thousand dollars for higher education expenses. Get serious and provide free tuition at community colleges or technical schools for all qualified high school graduates.
65
61
61
79
85
81
Protect Medicare and Social Security
Create a long term plan to rebuild America and create new goodpaying jobs by investing in infrastructure
Help working mothers with access to affordable child care, paidsick days and protect pregnant workers from being fired
Much more positive
37
Social Security and Medicare top priorities for key groups, reforming government and jobs are also popular
RAE
Unmarried Women
White Non-College
68
64
61
79
85
85
Protect Medicare and Social Security
Streamline government and reduce waste and bureaucracy
Create a long term plan to rebuild America and create new goodpaying jobs by investing in infrastructure
52
46
43
78
79
66
Protect Medicare and Social Security
Streamline government and reduce waste and bureaucracy
Create a long term plan to rebuild America and create new goodpaying jobs by investing in infrastructure
Now I am going to read you some things being proposed by Democrats as part of their plan to deal with the economy. After each item, please tell me whether that policy makes you feel much more positive about their plan, somewhat more positive about their plan, a little more positive, or not at all positive.
The Republican agenda includes general Republican policies and right wing populist policies
38
Fiscal Responsibility: Require lawmakers to pass a budget or withhold their pay, and require Congress to review programs deemed wasteful and redundant.
Regulation: Small businesses are strangled by unnecessary regulation, complex and increasing taxes, and high energy prices. We need to loosen the regulation that is stifling small businesses to make it easier for them to grow and expand.
Balanced Budget: Cut government spending immediately and pass a Constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget every year, so that we aren't spending more than we can afford.
Spending: Reduce unnecessary government spending and put an end to wasteful government programs to start resolving the trillion-dollar debt crisis, putting America back on a responsible track and giving certainty to investors and businesses.
Welfare: Reduce welfare spending by helping move more Americans from welfare to work by investigating cases of welfare fraud, and drug testing those who receive government help like food stamps and cash benefits.
Energy/Keystone: Promote lower energy prices through a comprehensive plan that includes increasing domestic production of oil, developing alternative energy sources such as wind and nuclear energy, advancing clean coal technology, and building the Keystone pipeline, which would create jobs and reduce our dependence on foreign oil.
46
42
38
68
64
69
Cut government spending immediately and pass a Constitutionalamendment requiring a balanced budget every year
Loosen the regulation that is stifling small businesses to make iteasier for them to grow and expand
Require lawmakers to pass a budget or withhold their pay, andrequire Congress to review programs deemed wasteful
Much more positive
39
Appetite for reform evident in responses to GOP agenda
RAE
Unmarried Women
White Non-College
48
43
42
68
72
64
Cut government spending immediately and pass a Constitutionalamendment requiring a balanced budget
Require lawmakers to pass a budget or withhold their pay, andrequire Congress to review programs deemed wasteful
Reduce welfare spending by helping move more Americans fromwelfare to work
59
58
58
77
82
80
Reduce welfare spending by helping move more Americans fromwelfare to work
Loosen the regulation that is stifling small businesses to make iteasier for them to grow and expand
Promote lower energy prices through a comprehensive plan
Now I am going to read you some things being proposed by Republicans as part of their plan to deal with the economy. After each item, please tell me whether that policy makes you feel much more positive about their plan, somewhat more positive about their plan, a little more positive, or not at all positive.
Economic Frame
40
41
(Reform) There is too much
money in politics and
government. Big corporations
and lobby groups spend millions
getting their candidates elected,
and then get tax breaks and
special laws that protect their
special interests. Billions are
spent on government programs
that are often out dated or don't
even work--but special interests
and government bureaucracy
protect them. We need leaders
who will clean up Washington by
restricting the campaign dollars
that come in, changing
programs that don't work and
using that money to help middle
class working families--not big
campaign donors.
(Combined Econ Agenda) People are drowning because jobs
don't pay enough to live on. We
need leaders who know what it's
like to work hard every day and still
struggle to pay the bills. We must
help people with affordable college,
job training, and childcare.
(Working families should earn
wages that keep up with the cost
of living/Women must get equal
pay so working women and
families can keep up.) We must
help the vulnerable by reducing
taxes for low-wage workers and
give a tax break for lower and
middle class working families. And
we must always protect Social
Security and Medicare. We need
an economy that works for working
people and the middle class again.
Reform and Economic messages are equally successful among 2016 likely voters
Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better. ..tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better.
39
71
VeryConvincing
40
72
VeryConvincing
42
(Tea Party Msg) Government is out
of control. The United States is so in
debt that generations of Americans
will pay for our bad decisions.
Bureaucracy and bloated
government continue to force
skyrocketing spending. President
Obama has seized more power
through executive orders that force
new policies on Americans without
Congress' consent, using
departments like the IRS to
investigate enemies, and secret
wiretaps to spy on our own citizens.
We need to dramatically cut the
power of the federal government,
restore the Constitution, reign in the
ability of the executive branch to
make unilateral policy decisions, and
put more power in the hands of local
governments and individuals.
(GOP Establishment Msg) Democrats failed to get our
economy back on track. The middle
class is struggling with declining
paychecks, high unemployment,
and rising costs. We must tighten
our borders and make sure only
those in this country legally who
can support themselves can stay,
and we need to reform the welfare
system so more people have the
opportunity to work. We need less
government regulation and should
fully harness our resources by
building the Keystone Pipeline. We
can bring back opportunity and
stimulate job creation if we just get
government out of the way and
allow energetic and entrepreneurial
Americans to rebuild the economy
from the ground up.
Republican messages less strong among this electorate
Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Republican leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better… tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better.
28
53
VeryConvincing
33
51
VeryConvincing
43
Both Economic and Reform messages outperform GOP messages
Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic/Republican leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better… tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better.
40
72
39
71
28
53
33
51
Reform Economic Establishment Tea Party
GOP Messages Dem Messages
40 36 36 36
72 66 64 68
39 35 29 41
71 67 62
71
Reform Agenda Very Convincing
Econ Agenda Very Convincing
Economic and Reform Messages are equally effective among blue collar whites
44
Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better. ..tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better.
Total White Non-
College White Non-College Men
White Non-College Women
40 43 40
72 78 75
39 44 48
71 78 80
Reform Agenda Very Convincing
Econ Agenda Very Convincing
Economic message more effective among women
45
Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better. ..tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better.
Total RAE Unmarried
women
46
(Working Families) People are
drowning because jobs don't pay
enough to live on. We need
leaders who know what it's like
to work hard every day and still
struggle to pay the bills. We must
help people with affordable
college, job training, and
childcare. Working families
should earn wages that keep
up with the cost of living. We
must help the vulnerable by
reducing taxes for low-wage
workers and give a tax break for
lower and middle class working
families. And we must always
protect Social Security and
Medicare. We need an economy
that works for working people
and the middle class again.
(Women Econ Agenda) People are
drowning because jobs don't pay
enough to live on. We need leaders
who know what it's like to work
hard every day and still struggle to
pay the bills. We must help people
with affordable college, job training,
and childcare. Women must get
equal pay so working women
and families can keep up. We
must help the vulnerable by
reducing taxes for low-wage
workers and give a tax break for
lower and middle class working
families. And we must always
protect Social Security and
Medicare. We need an economy
that works for working people and
the middle class again.
Very little differentiation between an economic message frame that mentions gender and one that does not
Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better. ..tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better.
38
71
VeryConvincing
39
71
VeryConvincing
38 35 32 38
71 68 65 70
39 35 25
43
71 66
60
71
Women Agenda Very Convincing
Working Families Very Convincing
Including women in the economic message does not alienate blue collar men
47
Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better. ..tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better.
Total White Non-
College White Non-College Men
White Non-College Women
38 40 46 36
71 77 80 78
39 47 49 49
71 78 79 81
Women Agenda Very Convincing
Working Families Very Convincing
Both agendas work well among groups of women in the base
48
Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better. ..tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better.
Total Women Unmarried
women College women
43 32
74 67
Reform First Econ First
Very Convincing Somewhat Convincing
Reform opens voters to progressive economic narrative
49
Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better. Please tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better.
People are drowning because jobs don't pay enough to live on. We need leaders who know what it's like to work hard every day and still struggle to pay the bills. We must help people with affordable college, job training, and childcare. (Working families should earn wages that keep up with the cost of living/Women must get equal pay so working women and families can keep up.) We must help the vulnerable by reducing taxes for low-wage workers and give a tax break for lower and middle class working families. And we must always protect Social Security and Medicare. We need an economy that works for working people and the middle class again.
Middle Class message strongest frame overall
50
+15 +17
0
The middle class is getting squeezed. They pay more taxes but get the least help. When the middle class succeeds, America succeeds.
America can't survive if we only take care of the richest few. We must give everyone the opportunity to succeed. We all do better when we all do better.
Working men and women are drowning in a new economy where hard work and playing by the rules don't mean a job that pays the bills. It's time for an economic plan that puts working families first.
Now let me read you some short statements. For each one, please tell me which statement is a better reason to support Democrats' economic plan.
Working Families frame works best among unmarried women
51
The middle class is getting squeezed. They pay more taxes but get the least help. When the middle class succeeds, America succeeds.
America can't survive if we only take care of the richest few. We must give everyone the opportunity to succeed. We all do better when we all do better.
Working men and women are drowning in a new economy where hard work and playing by the rules don't mean a job that pays the bills. It's time for an economic plan that puts working families first.
+2 +11
+13
Unmarried Women
Now let me read you some short statements. For each one, please tell me which statement is a better reason to support Democrats' economic plan.
Middle Class and Working America messages much stronger than Everyone message among blue collar whites
52
The middle class is getting squeezed. They pay more taxes but get the least help. When the middle class succeeds, America succeeds.
America can't survive if we only take care of the richest few. We must give everyone the opportunity to succeed. We all do better when we all do better.
Working men and women are drowning in a new economy where hard work and playing by the rules don't mean a job that pays the bills. It's time for an economic plan that puts working families first.
+25 +19
+14
White Non-College
Now let me read you some short statements. For each one, please tell me which statement is a better reason to support Democrats' economic plan.
Messaging and policy agenda helps Democrats make gains on advocacy and the economy
53
45
46
38
38
35
36
37
39
32
36
43
41
54
51
53
51
53
51
57
54
Dem
Gain
+7
+4
+3
Initial: Looking out for working women and men
Reask: Looking out for working women and men
Initial: Looking out for the interests of the middle class
Reask: Looking out for the interests of the middle class
Now, I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think (ROTATE) the Democrats or the
Republicans would do a better job with each issue.
Initial: Looking out for working men and women
Reask: Looking out for working men and women
Initial: Looking out for the interests of working people
Reask: Looking out for the interests of working people
Initial: The economy
Reask: The economy
+3
+3
49 50 51
43 44 42
Clinton Romney Clinton Romney Clinton Romney
Clinton Romney
Movement towards Clinton against the stronger GOP opponent indicates some room for growth
Initial
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for
President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt
Romney?
54
+6 +6
Revote Final Vote
+9
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