is water a limiting factor for population growth in south australia?
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The Environment InstituteWhere ideas grow
Professor Graeme Hugo
Is water a limiting factor for population growth in South Australia?
Outline of Presentation IntroductionPopulation and Water: A Global PerspectiveSouth Australia’s Contemporary Population• Growth• Composition• DistributionPopulation and WaterPopulation Planning and Policy in South AustraliaConclusion
Population and Water: The Supply/Demand Equation
Supply Demand
Rainfall Population Number
Runoff Population Characteristics
Capture Population Distribution
Storage Use per capita
Recycling Other Uses
Pipelines - Agriculture
Desalination - Industry
Global Population: 2009Source: U.N. 2009, p.1
Major Area 1950 1975 2009 2050World 2,529 4,061 6,829 9,150More developed regions 812 1,047 1,233 1,275Less developed regions 1,717 3,014 5,596 7,875
Least developed countries 200 357 835 1,672Other less developed countries 1,517 2,657 4,761 6,202
Africa 227 419 1,010 1,998Asia 1,403 2,379 4,121 5,231Europe 547 676 732 691Latin America and Caribbean 167 323 582 729Northern America 172 242 348 448Oceania 13 21 35 51
Population (millions)
World Population by Region at the Turn of Three Centuries: 1800, 1900 and 2000
Source: U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision
Projected Population Change by Region, 2005 - 2050
Source: C.Haub, 2005 World Population Data Sheet (2005)
Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 31
Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 98
Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 99
Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 102
Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 103
Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 103
Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 128
At A Global Level(World Water Assessment Programme 2009)
• Need to progress toward zero population growth as soon as possible
• Need to better manage water systems to achieve development objectives and sustain development
• Decision making on water seeking synergies and selecting appropriate trade offs
Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) Source: ESCAP 2008; Population Reference Bureau 2007 and 2008; ABS 2008
Country/Region Year Rate Per Annum
World 2007-08 1.2
LDCs 2007-08 1.4
MDCs 2007-08 0.5
Europe and the New Independent States 2007-08 0.4
North America 2007-08 0.9
ESCAP Region 2007-08 1.0
Indonesia 2007-08 1.1
Australia 2007-08 1.7
South Australia 2007-08 1.1
Australia and South Australia: Rate of Population Growth per Annum, 1947 to 2008
Source: ABS 1983 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues
Note: Data are for Calendar Years
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
Perc
ent
Year
South AustraliaAustralia
Projections of the Population of Australia and South Australia
Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008 and Planning SA
ABS 2005 ABS 2008 ABS 2005 ABS 2008 2M in2051
2006 Actual 20.7 20.7 1.57 1.57 1.572007 Actual 21.0 21.0 1.58 1.58 1.582021 Projected 23.9 25.6 1.63 1.81 1.732051 Projected 28.0 34.2 1.58 2.16 2.01
Australia
Series B Series B
South Australia
Population Growth is a Function of:
• Mortality• Fertility• Migration
South Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947 to 2008
Source: ABS 1997 and Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
Year
Num
ber
Net Migration
Natural Increase
Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2007Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins
Expectation of Life at BirthMales Females
1947 66.1 70.62007 79.0 83.7
Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2007
Source: ABS
Year Males Females
1901-1910 21.2 23.7
1970-1972 23.0 28.3
2007 31.4 35.2
Persons Aged 65 Years and Over with DisabilitiesSource: ABS 2005
Birth cohort crude prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥ 30) among males between 1991 and 2008
Source: SA Department of Health
MALES.
0
10
20
30
40
50
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Year of survey
Prop
ortio
n ob
ese
(BM
I>30
)
1981-1995 (Gen Y) 1965-1980 (Gen X)1946-1964 (Baby Boomers) 1925-1945 (Silent Gen & WWII)Pre 1925 (GI Gen)
FEMALES
0
10
20
30
40
50
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Year of survey
Prop
ortio
n ob
ese
(BM
I>30
)
1981-1995 (Gen Y) 1965-1980 (Gen X)1946-1964 (Baby Boomers) 1925-1945 (Silent Gen & WWII)Pre 1925 (GI Gen)
NB: Insufficient numbers for Gen Y (1991-2003) and GI Gen (2005-2008) cohorts resulted in exclusion from analysis.
FertilityAustralia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2007
Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues
Total Fertility Rate(a): States and TerritoriesSource: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends
2007-8 COMPONENTS OF GROWTH
Births 285,653Deaths 142,039Natural Increase 145,617Net Migration 213,715Population Increase 1.71 percent
Australia: A Country of Immigration
• 24 percent born overseas• 26 percent Australia-born with an
overseas-born parent(s)• 809,628 persons temporarily present at
30/6/08
• 149,365 incoming permanent settlers in 2007-08
• 56,575 “onshore” settlers in 2007-08
Record Australian Migration 2007-8
• 206,135 permanent migrants• Net overseas migration: 235,900• 61 percent of population increase• 457s – 110,570• Students – 278,194• WHM – 154,148• Total Temporary Residents – 542,902
Intended State and Territory Destinations ofPermanent Additions
Source: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends; DIAC 2008
1996-97% % 000
New South Wales 43.7 31.7 65.2Victoria 21.7 25.2 52.0Queensland 15.8 19.3 39.7South Australia 3.8 6.3 13.0Western Australia 11.6 14.0 28.8Other (a) 2.3 2.8 5.8Australia (b) 100.0 100 205.9
(a) Other includes Tasmania, NT, ACT and Other Territories(b) Total includes those for w hich state and territory destinations w ere not know n
2007-08
South Australia: Net Overseas Migration, 1979 to 2008Source: ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,00019
79
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Year Ending 30 June
Pers
ons
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Per c
ent
Net Overseas Migration toSA% of National Intake
Australia: Settler Arrivals by State According to Whether They are State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme Migrants or
Other Migrants, 2006-07Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues; DIAC Immigration Update, various issues
Changes in Composition of the Population
• Ageing• Shifting ethnic composition• Socio-economic composition• Education levels
South Australia:Age-Sex Structure, 2001 and 2006
Source: ABS 2006 Census Time Series Profile
60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
Age
Gro
up
Persons
2001 2006
Males Females
Wittert, 2006
South Australia: Age and Sex Distribution of the Population,2006 and Projected 2031
Source: ABS 2006 Census and ABS 2005 Projections
60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
Age
Gro
up
Persons
2006 2031
Males Females
Structural Ageing:South Australia: Change by Age: 2004- 2010, 2004- 2020
Source: ABS Projections 2005, Series B
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
0 5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85+
Age
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Ch
an
ge 2004-2010 (1.57 m)
2004-2020 (1.62 m)
Structural Ageing:South Australia: Change by Age: 2006-2021, 2006-2031
Source: ABS Projections 2008, Series B, based on Jackson 2004
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85+
Age
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Ch
an
ge 2006-2021 (1.81 m)
2006-2031 (1.95 m)
The Demography of Ageing in Australia Over the Next 25 Years
• Numbers aged 65+ will double
• Proportion of population aged 65+ will almost double
• Characteristics of older population will change
• Where older people live will change
The Challenge
• The closing gap between the numbers of working age and dependent aged populations.
• Greatly increased numbers in the older age groups with high levels of demand in high cost areas of health and aged care services.
Meeting the ChallengeStrategies for Baby Boomers• Increased Age at Retirement• Increased saving and preparation for retirement• Reduced obesity and improved health
Strategies for the Rest of the Working Age Groups• Increased productivity• Increased workforce participation
Strategies in the Health and Aged Care Sectors• Improved efficiency• Preventative health• Better models of funding and provision
• Part of the strategy will require at least maintaining the size of the workforce or slightly increasing it at the same time as the older population is increasing rapidly
The Population and Water Issue
“ That Australia is a dry continent is an intrinsic part of our national ethos, and the present distribution of population is in large measure related to the supply of water and the disposal of effluents.
….The availability of water constitutes one of the major factors in determining the size and distribution of Australia’s population”
CSIRO 1973 – quoted in National Population Inquiry 1975 p 719-720
The Mismatch Between Water and Population
(Nix 1988, 72)
Far North
Australia
(%)
Southern
Australia
(%)
Population 2 82
Potentially Arable Land 4 65
Annual Mean Surface Run Off 52 27
By far the largest volumes of uncommitted water are in northern Australia and Western Tasmania. In the
most heavily populated regions of south western and south eastern Australia surface waters are
committed to a high degree and the consequences of climate change are potentially most serious
Pittock and Nix 1986
Australian Rainfall 2006
Australia: Rainfall and Population in 2006
Australian rainfall 2006
% of Population
2006 2006 population Growth ratePercent of Land Area
Below average 89.6 17,749,462 0.98 38Average 7.23 1,432,090 0.70 18Above average 3.17 628,865 -1.57 44
How Has Australia Dealt with the Water/Population Issue?
The twentieth century solution to supplying water to a rapidly increasing population with increasing per capita consumption levels was an engineering one ….
“There was a comforting belief that there was always sufficient supplies available and all that was required was application of engineering skills to deliver them” (Troy, 2008,188)
In South Australia(Fenner, 1929, 118)
…water supply, combined with and dependent on rainfall, is the dominating geographical control of population in the State. All that has been done in the face of adverse conditions provide an excellent example of the way in which man (“nature’s insurgent Son”) has in the first place adapted himself to the geographic conditions, and in the second place, by the exercise of his ingenuity and skill, has turned on his environment and shaped it to his will”
Growth of Population and Reservoir Capacity, 1986-2006
Source: ABS and SA Water; Fenner, 1929, p.118. (Hugo, Forthcoming)
In my view we are faced with a dilemma. Firstly in the short to medium term we need to increase population as part of our strategy to offset the effects of ageing of the baby boomers. Secondly water and other environmental considerations indicate the need to work toward a stable population with a balance of working and non working age groups in the medium to long term.
STATE STRATEGIC PLAN POPULATION TARGETS (2007)
Target 1.22: Total Population “Increase South Australia’s population to 2 million by 2050, rather than the projected pop’n
decline. Interim target of 1.64 million by 2014”. Revised to 2 million in 2032.
Target 1.23: Interstate Migration “Reduce net loss to interstate to zero by 2010 with a positive inflow from 2010-14”
Target 1.24: Overseas Migration “Match SA’s share of international migrants to Australia with the State’s share of the overall
national pop’n over the next 10 years. Net overseas gain to be 8,500 by 2014”.
Target 1.25: Fertility “Maintain at TFR of 1.7” Target 5.9: Regional Populations “Maintain and develop viable regional population levels for sustainable communities. Keep
share at 18 percent.”
South Australia: Population if Current Rate of Growth Maintained
2005-6 2006-7 2007-82006 1,558,230 2007 1,584,513 2008 1,601,8212011 1,629,624 2011 1,651,464 2011 1,655,7562021 1,782,375 2021 1,831,481 2021 1,849,0022031 1,949,444 2030 2,010,215 2029 2,019,7162034 2,002,554 2031 2,031,122 2031 2,064,8032041 2,132,173 2041 2,252,523 2041 2,305,7892050 2,311,228 2050 2,472,346 2050 2,546,635
South Australia’s Population Policy• First in the nation to initiate a population policy• Strengths
– See population as a key element in economic policy
– consideration of each demographic process– Recognition of the short term impact of the ageing
of the baby boom– basis for community discussion
• Weaknesses– Targets without any empirical rationale– needs to more explicitly build in environmental
factors– Need for more regional community and local level
consideration– Too Adelaide focussed
The 30 Year Plan for Adelaide – Population Policies
• 560,000 people over 30 years added to the population
• 258,000 dwellings• Actively encourage inward interstate
migration and reduce outward migration of working age people
• Retain “regional migration status” to attract a higher proportion of skilled migrants
The 30 Year PlanStrengths• An integrated plan – much needed basis for discussion• Adopts a functional definition of Adelaide regionWeaknesses• What is the empirical basis of the 560,000 population
increase over the 30 Years?• At least implicit that most growth will be of young working
families• Concern at whether limited high quality agricultural land
will be protected
The Need for Dialogue Rather than Debate
• Need to recognise that there are environmentalconstraints on population in Australia and factor them into all planning.
• Population planning and environmental planning shouldnot be totally separate activities
• Need to better understand these constraints and howpopulation and environment are inter-related.
• Little is known about this complex relationship and thereis a need for an evidence base to inform policy.
• Need for environmental science and population scienceto work together in teaching, research and policy.
• The objective of population policy should be to facilitate sustainability.
• The discussion about population and water has been dominated by interest groups and single dimensional solutions.
• The need is for a comprehensive consideration of economic, environmental, social, cultural and demographic elements of sustainability.
• The policy must be evidence-based and the result of significant and representative consultation across the community.
• Population policy must not be a substitute for sound economic, environmental, social inclusion and good governance policies but should support them.
• Population, Society, Economy and Environment are related to each other in complex ways. Population policy is not a “sliver bullet” solution.
• There will be trade-offs and compromises to derive the best outcome for the community
Conclusion• Population and water issues in (South) Australia
are manageable.• However immediate action and a conceptual
shift will be necessary.• The need is for less confrontation and more
collaboration and co-operation to develop strategies which will work, and are in the interests of all Australians.
• There must be more and better evidence produced and wider community involvement in the discourse.
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