irish & eu beef & livestock market outlook...november 2016 irish & eu beef &...

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

AIDAN COTTER

CHIEF EXECUTIVE

BORD BIA

28 JANUARY 2009

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

November 2016

Irish & EU Beef & Livestock Market Outlook

Joe Burke

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2016

2015

Irish weekly finished cattle supplies (head)

5.1% Increase in Irish Cattle Supplies

(+68,500 head)

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

0-12 12-24 24-36

2015 2016

Male Cattle Numbers by Age Category on 1st of September

-24,000

+71,000

+44,000 Source:

AIM

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

0-12 12-24 24-36

2015 2016

Female Beef Cattle No.s by Age Category on 1st of September

Source: AIM

+3,000

+51,000 +13,000

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Finished Cattle Supplies – Export Meat Plants 2013 – 2017(F)

2017: 100-120,000 additional finished cattle likely

1.49 1.65

1.56 1.63-1.64

1.73-1.75

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F

Mill

ion

he

ad

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

(head) 2015 2016 % change

Total

NI

GB

Italy

Spain

Netherlands

Belgium

France

Other EU

Int. mkt.s

163,547

46,759

8,086

22,038

28,755

43,624

473

8,503

1,253

4,056

124,059

20,922

5,823

17,259

35,848

26,937

328

5,854

2,443

8,645

-24%

-55%

-28%

-22%

+25%

-38%

-31%

-31%

+95%

+113%

Live Cattle Exports 2016 Distribution of Live Exports from Ireland up to w/e. 5th November

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Producer Prices: Ireland vs. Continental EU (c/kg excl VAT)

(w/e 05/11) Irish Price €3.54/kg vs. UK €3.95 vs. Continental EU av: €3.60/kg

In Italy, R3 young bull price: €3.72/kg, Spain: €3.63, France: €3.57, Germany €3.74

200

250

300

350

400

450UK R3 Steer

Ireland R3Steer

ContinentalEuropean R3Young Bull

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Currency Exchange Rates

Average for 2014: €1: £0.806

16th Nov 2016: €1: £0.861

Value of Euro in Sterling terms

For 2015: €1: £0.726

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

British Cattle Price Development in Sterling terms

£ Ste

rling p

/kg

Last week: GB R3 steers average £3.61 @ 88.2p = €4.09/kg

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

UK

• Throughput +5.1%

• Steers +3.6% / YB’s +11%

• Cull cows +10%

European Markets

Cattle Supplies 2016

France

• Production +1.8%

• Cull cows: +3.8%

• Live Exports +6.5%

Germany

• Production +0.3%

Italy

• Production N/C.

• Live imports +3%

Spain

• Throughput +5%

• Live imports +10%

• Live exports -15%

EU Beef Production 3.5% higher (EU Commission)

Source: EU Commission beef forecast working group

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Germany (EU Forecast)

Volume : +1.1%

France

(Jan to mid-Sept)

Volume: -0.8%

Av Price: +2.3%

Britain

(12 wks to mid-Oct)

Volume: -1.5%

Av Price: -4.3%

Home Market

(12 wks to mid-Oct)

Volume: +3.1%

Av Price: -0.7%

EU Beef Retail Sales / Consumption 2016

Italy (EU Forecast)

Volume : -1.1%

Netherlands (EU Forecast)

Volume : +1.8%

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

• Exports 510,000 T

• UK 54% / 275,000 T

• EU 42% / 220,000 T

– France 52,000 T

– Netherlands 40,000 T

– Italy 38,000 T

– Scandinavia 42,000 T

– Germany 24,000 T

• International 3% 15,000 T

Irish Beef Markets 2015

Source: CSO / Bord Bia Estimates

-2%

+1%

-1%

+5%

-1%

-3%

+10%

+140%

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

UK: Maintaining Profile in Retail and Foodservice

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

GERMANY Driving Awareness and building premium positioning

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Netherlands Maintaining Image based on Quality, Environment and Welfare attributes

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

Chefs Irish Beef Club 84 Michelin-starred chefs acting as ambassadors for Irish beef across 8 markets

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

CHINA & SOUTH-EAST ASIA EU Funded Campaign

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

AIDAN COTTER

CHIEF EXECUTIVE

BORD BIA

28 JANUARY 2009

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

November 2016

Irish & EU Beef & Livestock Market Outlook

Joe Burke