ipsos mori: political monitor september 2012
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POLITICAL MONITOR September 2012
Contacts:
Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
Voting Intentions
3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012, all certain to vote = 567 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -10
All giving a voting intention: 81%
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
Other
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?”
32%
42%
12%
14%
All certain to vote: 55%
Conservative lead = -11
30%
41%
13%
16%
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-03 M
ar-03 M
ay-03 Jul-03 S
ep-03 N
ov-03 Jan-04 M
ar-04 M
ay-04 Jul-04 S
ep-04 N
ov-04 Jan-05 M
ar-05 M
ay-05 Jul-05 S
ep-05 N
ov-05 Jan-06 M
ar-06 M
ay-06 Jul-06 S
ep-06 N
ov-06 Jan-07 M
ar-07 M
ay-07 Jul-07 S
ep-07 N
ov-07 Jan-08 M
ar-08 M
ay-08 Jul-08 S
ep-08 N
ov-08 Jan-09 M
ar-09 M
ay-09 Jul-09 S
ep-09 N
ov-09 Jan-10 M
ar-10 M
ay-10 Jul-10 S
ep-10 N
ov-10 Jan-11 M
ar-11 M
ay-11 Jul-11 S
ep-11 N
ov-11 Jan-12 M
ar-12 M
ay-12 Jul-12 S
ep-12
41%
Howard elected (Nov 03)
2005 General Election
Cameron elected (Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
13%
30%
2010 General Election
Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions January ‘03 – September ‘12 (all certain to vote) How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders
6
58
66
47
64
34
23
38
28
Net satisfaction
Net change from August
2012
-24 -8
-43 -16
-9 -7
-36 -8
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied
% Dissatisfied
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
23%
% s
atis
fied
Cameron
Clegg
Campbell
Clegg elected (Jan 08)
General Election
34% Miliband
38%
Brown
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – September ‘12
8
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIR MAJOR BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?
January 2006 – September 2012 September 2012
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
34%
58%
7%
Net = -24
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
Base: 254 Conservative supporters 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?
69%
27%
4% Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
September 2012
Net = +42
January 2006 – September 2012
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
11
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2012) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2012)
HOWARD (2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
12
10
20
30
40
50
60 Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2010 – September 2012 September 2012
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
38%
47%
14%
Net = -9
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 342 Labour supporters 18+, 15th - 17th September 2012
Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
September 2012
Net = +21
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – September 2012
55% 34%
11%
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Nick Clegg (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
January 2008 – September 2012 September 2012
23%
66%
11%
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied Net = -43
15
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
Base: 100 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
September 2012
43%
51%
6% Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -8
Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?
January 2008 – September 2012
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Economic Optimism
17 Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Improve
Stay the same Get worse
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
26%
36%
35%
3% Improve Don’t know
Get worse Stay the same
September 2012
EOI = -9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012
18
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan-
97
May
-97
Sep
-97
Jan-
98
May
-98
Sep
-98
Jan-
99
May
-99
Sep
-99
Jan-
00
May
-00
Sep
-00
Jan-
01
May
-01
Sep
-01
Jan-
02
May
-02
Sep
-02
Jan-
03
May
-03
Sep
-03
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46 -56 -48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index In
dex
(get
bet
ter m
inus
get
wor
se)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-9
Leader image
20
59%57%
54%
54%
46%
38%
37%
35%
34%
34%
31%
26%
15%
17%
18%
22%26%
29%
35%
30%
16%
21%
37%36%
Cameron Eloquent
Is a good person
Prime Ministerial
Likeable
Understands people like me
Tough enough for the job of PM
Represents Britain
Leader image
In your opinion, which party leader, David Cameron or Ed Miliband, is stronger on each of the following?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Smart enough for the job of PM
Has the right values
Will protect British jobs
A man of faith
Would be fun to meet in person
Miliband
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012
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