introduction to pipeline risk assessment
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Laila Utari Ratna PuspitaFakultas Teknik Mesin dan Dirgantara
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1. The Science and Philosophy of Risk
Entropy is a measureof the disorder of a
system
Entropy must alwaysincrease in the
universe and in anyhypothetical isolated
system within it
To offset the effects of entropy, energy mustbe injected into any
system. Withoutadding energy, the
system becomesincreasinglydisordered
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The Scientific Method
Methodology:
Observe a phenomenon Hypothesize an explanation for the phenomenon Predict some measurable consequences that
your hypothesis would have if it turned out to betrue
Test the prediction experimentally
Modeling
The scientific method is a process by which wecreate representations or models of our world
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2. Basic Concepts
HazardHazard is a characteristic or group of characteristics that
provides the potential for a loss, e.g. flammability andtoxicity.
A Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) study is a technique inwhich a team of system experts is guided through a formalprocess in which imaginative scenarios are developedusing specific guided words and analyzed by the team.
We can change the risk without changing a hazard.
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Risks
Risk is most commonly defined as the probability of an event that causes a loss and the potentialmagnitude of that loss.
RiskProbabilityof Failure
(PoF)
Consequenceof Failure
(CoF)
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Relatedrisk termsinclude:
Acceptablerisk
Tolerablerisk
RiskTolerance
Negligiblerisk
Risk is defined byanswering these questions:
What can go wrong?
How likely it is?
What are theconsequences?
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Failure(What can go wrong)
Definitions Of Pipeline Failure:
Unintentional release of pipeline contents
Loss of integrity
Failure to perform its intended function
Possiblepipeline failuremechanisms:
Third party
CorrosionDesign
Incorrectoperations
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Frequency,Statistics, and
Probability
Frequencyusually refers toa count of pastobservations.
Statistics refersto the analyses
of the pastobservations.
Probability isdegree of
belief, whichnormally utilizesstatistics butrarely based
entirely on them.
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Failure Rates
A failure rate is simply a count of failures over time. It is usually firsta frequency observations of howoften the pipeline has failed over
some previous period of time
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Consequences are sometimes grouped into direct and indirect categories .:
Property damages Damages tohuman health
Environmentaldamages
Loss of products
Repair costs Cleanup andremediation costs
Directcosts:
Litigation Contract violation Customer
dissatisfaction Political reactions Loss of market
share Government finesand penalties
Indirectcosts:
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RiskAssessment
Risk assessment is ameasuring process. It
must measure both theprobability and the
consequences of all of the potential events thatcomprise the hazard.
Using the riskassessment, we can
make decisions related tomanaging those risks.
Experts
Experts refers to peoplemost knowledgeable in thesubject matter. Theyre notrestricted to a scientist or
other technical person. Thegreatest expertise for a
specific pipeline systemprobably lies with theworkforce that has operatedand maintained that system
for many years. Theexperience and intuition of the entire workforce should
be tapped as much as is
practical when performing arisk assessment.
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Risk Management Risk management is a reaction to perceived risks. It is the set of actionsadopted to control the risk. Many challenging questions are implied inrisk management:
Where and when should resources be applied?
How much urgency should be attached to any specific risk mitigation? Should only the worst segments be addressed first? Should resources be diverted from less risky segments in order to
better mitigate risks in higher risk areas? How much will risk change if we do nothing differently?
The intention is not to make the risk disappear, but to minimizethem at least to the extent that no unacceptable risks remain.
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3. Uncertainty
Further adding to the uncertainty isthe fact that the thing being
measured is constantly changing.
Managers must control the rightrisks with limited resources becausethere will always be limits on the
amount of time, manpower, or moneythat can be applied to a risk situation.
It is usually best to assume that
Uncertainty = Increased risks
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5. Data collection
What will the data represent? The data are the sum of our knowledge about thepipeline section
How will the values be obtained?
Who will be performing the evaluations?
What manuals or procedures will be used?
How often will the evaluations be repeated?
Will hard proof or documentation be a requirement inall cases? Or can the evaluator accept opinion datain some circumstances?
What defaults are to be used when no information isavailable?
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What sources ofvariation exist?
Typical sources of variation in pipeline riskassessment include: Differences in the pipeline
section environment
Differences in the pipelinesection operation
Differences in the amount of information available on thepipeline section
Evaluator-to-evaluator variation in informationgathering and interpretation
Day-to-day variation in the waya single evaluator assignscores
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There are several steps to reduce thosevariations:
Improved documentation and procedures Evaluator training Refinement of the assessment technique to
remove more subjectivity Changes in the information-gathering activity
Use of only one evaluator
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Why are the data beingcollected?
The common link will bethe desire to create a
better understanding of the pipeline and its risks inorder to make
improvements in the riskpicture.
The secondary reasonsare: Identify relative risks hot spots Ensure regulatory compliance Set insurance rates Define acceptable risk levels Prioritize maintenance spending Build a resource allocation model Assign dollar values to pipeline
systems Track pipelining activities
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5. Conceptualizing A Risk Assessment Approach
Checklist for design
The following is a partiallist of considerations in
the design of a riskassessment system:
Purpose
Audience
General public or special interest group
Local, state, or federalregulators
Company-all employees
Company-managementonly
Company-specificdepartments only
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Risk identification Resource allocation Design or modify an operating disciplines Regulatory compliance for risk assessment Regulatory compliance for all required
activities Regulatory compliance waivers Project approvals Preventive maintenance schedules Due diligence Liability reduction Risk communications
Uses
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Users Internal only Technical staff only Managers Planning department
District-level supervisors Regulators Other oversight Public presentations
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Resources Data Software Hardware
Staff Money Industry
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Design
Scope Failure causes considered Consequences considered Facilities covered Scoring Direction of scale Point assignments
Resolution issues Defaults Zone-of-influence distance Relative versus absolute Reporting
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Formal vs. Informal RiskManagement
Formal pipeline riskmanagement is growing inpopularity among pipeline
operators and is increasinglymandated by government
regulations.
An informal approach to riskmanagement is the product of expert engineering consensusbuilt on solid experience. It is
simple, easy to comprehend andto communicate.
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RiskAssessmentBuilding Blocks
Checklists Safety review Relative ranking Preliminary hazard
analysis what -if analysis HAZOP study FMEA analysis Fault-tree analysis Event-tree analysis Cause-and-consequence
analysis Human-error analysis
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Fig.1.3 event-tree analysis
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8. Choosing A Risk Assessment Issues
Several questions to the pipelineoperator that may direct the choiceof risk assessment technique:
What data do you have? What is your confidence in the
predictive value of the data? What resources are available in
terms of money, person-hours,and time?
What benefits do you expect to
accrue in terms of cost savings,reduced regulatory burdens,improve public support, andoperational efficiency?
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Any completerisk assessmentmodel should beable to pass the
following four test:
The I didnt know that!test The why is that? test The point to a map test The what about__? test
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9. Quality And Risk Management
Severaldefinitions to
define quality are:
Fitness-for-use Consistency withspecificationsFreedom from
defects
Risk managementcan be thought of asa method to improve
quality
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Distinction between types of work performed in the name
of the customer:
Value added work
These are work activitiesthat directly add value to the
product or service
Necessary work
These are work activitiesthat are not value added, butare necessary in order tocomplete the value added
work
Waste
Task that are done routinely,but really do not directly or indirectly support thecustomer needs, are
considered to be waste
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10. Reliability
Reliability is often defined as theprobability that equipment,
machinery, or systems will performtheir required functions satisfactorily
under specific conditions within acertain time period
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Common reliability measurementand control efforts involve issues
of:
Equipment performance, asmeasured by availability, uptime,
MTTF, MTBF, and Weibullanalysis
Reliability as a component ofoperation cost or ownership
costs, sometimes measured bylife-cycle cost
Reliability analysis techniqueapplied to maintenance
optimization, including ReliabilityCentered Maintenance (RCM),
Predictive PreventiveMaintenance (PPM), and root
cause analysis
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THANK YOU
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