integrated ecological economic modeling of ecosystem services from brazil's amazon rainforest

Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling of Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling of Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon

RainforestRainforest

By By Rosimeiry PortelaRosimeiry Portela

AtAtConservation InternationalConservation International

Washington, DCWashington, DCJuly, 2005July, 2005

IntroductionIntroduction

The Amazon tropical rain forest: Largest tract of tropical forest on Earth with half of the species of the world.

Vegetation: Regional pattern of precipitation and radiation and and regulation of GHGs.

Plant animal interactions and nutrient cycling.

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ATLANTIC

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VENEZUELA

COLOMBIA

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BOL IVI A

BRAZI L

GUYANA

SURINAMEFRENCHGUIANA

Jauru

MARABA

Xapuri

Vilhena

CACERES

Altamira

Xinguara

Normandia

Caracarai

Ariquemes

Itaituba

Tarauaca

RIO BRANCO

Porto Velho

NOVOARIPUANA

ALTOARAGUAIA

SenaMadureira

Sao Joaode Pirabas

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AMAZONASPARA

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AMAPARORAIMA

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BSRS IBasi c Science and Remote Sensing Initiative

TOWNS

ForestDeforestationSecondary GrowthWaterCloud CoverCloud ShadowCerradoHighway

State/Country BoundariesTransamazonica Highway

F ORE ST COVER IN TH E BRAZ IL IAN AMAZON, 1992

Legal Amazon, Brazil

““To try to understand the structure and function To try to understand the structure and function of …(the Amazon) is comparable to composing a of …(the Amazon) is comparable to composing a

mosaic picture.mosaic picture.

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Sioli, H. 1984

RUMBA: Integrating functions of the RUMBA: Integrating functions of the ecosystem to human economy and social ecosystem to human economy and social

interactions…interactions…

…with the main focus on the contribution of the ecosystem goods and functions to human economy and welfare.

Atmosphere

Lithosphere

Hydrosphere

Biosphere

Original land cover andderived land uses

Human-madeCapital(Built Capital,Human CapitalSocial Capital)

EcosystemServices

HumanImpacts

Anthroposphere

Solar Energy

Natural Capital

Rest of the

World

RUMBA: ScenariosRUMBA: Scenarios

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Baseline: Historical trends;

Scenario 1: Increased investment in BC with region’s own financial resources;

Scenario 2: Increased investment in BC with region’s and external financial resources;

Scenario 3: Increased investment in NC with region’s own financial resources;

Scenario 4: Increased investment in NC with region’s and external financial resources.

Research Results: Annual Deforestation Research Results: Annual Deforestation RatesRates

Baseline and Alternative ScenariosBaseline and Alternative Scenarios

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1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Year

Km

2 *yr-1

BASELINE SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4 DATA

Research Results: Research Results: Annual Deforestation RatesAnnual Deforestation Rates

Year 2050Year 2050 Scenario 1: 27 thousand kmScenario 1: 27 thousand km22 yr yr-1-1

Scenario 2: 29 thousand kmScenario 2: 29 thousand km22yryr-1-1

Scenario 3: 22 thousand kmScenario 3: 22 thousand km22yryr-1-1

Scenario 4: 25 thousand kmScenario 4: 25 thousand km22yryr-1-1

Forest is cleared at Forest is cleared at a faster rate under a faster rate under scenarios of scenarios of increased increased development.development.2050: Baseline: 26 2050: Baseline: 26 thousand kmthousand km2 2 yryr-1-1-3500

-2500

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3500

km2

Research Results: Research Results: Annual Deforestation RatesAnnual Deforestation Rates

Deforested areas Deforested areas under scenarios of under scenarios of increased increased development are development are higher than those higher than those of conservation and of conservation and BaselineBaseline

Deforestation in Scenario in Relation Baseline Deforestation in Scenario in Relation Baseline (2100)(2100)

Scenario 1: -73 thousand kmScenario 1: -73 thousand km22

Scenario 2: -171 thousand kmScenario 2: -171 thousand km22

Scenario 3: +205 thousand kmScenario 3: +205 thousand km22

Scenario 4: +45 thousand kmScenario 4: +45 thousand km22

62646668707274767880

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2100

Year

Deforested Area, All Scenarios Year 2100

BASELINE SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4

Research Results: Research Results: Land Cover/Land Use CompositionLand Cover/Land Use Composition

Baseline ScenarioBaseline ScenarioStrong trend in land Strong trend in land

conversion from forest conversion from forest to other land uses;to other land uses;

1975: 96% forest cover1975: 96% forest cover 2100: 26% forest cover2100: 26% forest cover

Land UseLand Use Pasture: 40%Pasture: 40% Fallow: 24%Fallow: 24% Agriculture: 10%Agriculture: 10%

LAND COVER/LAND USE COMPOSITION/BASELINE SCENARIO YEAR 1975

Forest96%

Agriculture1%

Pasture2%

Fallow1%

Urban0%

Forest Agriculture Pasture Fallow Urban

LAND COVER/LAND USE COMPOSITION/BASELINE SCENARIO YEAR 2100

Forest26%

Agriculture10%

Pasture40%

Fallow24%

Urban0%

Forest Agriculture Pasture Fallow Urban

Results: Climate Variables/Baseline Results: Climate Variables/Baseline ScenarioScenario

Precipitation: 23% reductionPrecipitation: 23% reduction

Evapotranspiration: 26%reductionEvapotranspiration: 26%reduction

Temperature: 11% increaseTemperature: 11% increase

Forest Carbon Balance: Decreasing Forest Carbon Balance: Decreasing Uptake and Increasing EmissionsUptake and Increasing Emissions

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Results: Ecosystem Services VariablesResults: Ecosystem Services Variables

Removal of forest cover leads to increasing losses of ecosystem services: +70% by 2100

Higher losses observed in scenarios of increased development

Monetary valuation: Increasing prices per unit of service

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Results: Average Values of Ecosystem Results: Average Values of Ecosystem ServicesServices

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Table 6.1. Ave rage Values of Ecosystem Services Provision for Forest, Cropland andPasture for simulated period a

Unit Forest Cropland PastureGas Regulation Ton C km-2 yr-1 812.5 322.1 351.5

Climate Regulation oC Ton C -1 yr-1 km-2 34.8 13.8 15.0

DisturbanceRegulation

Ton C km-2 23,551.8 879.6 896.4

Plant NutrientUptake

Ton N km-2 yr-1 4,1 0.9 0.9

a. Average value for the simulated period 1975-2100.

Results: Monetary Valuation of Results: Monetary Valuation of Ecosystem Services Ecosystem Services

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001)

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BASELINE SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4

Value of ecosystem services is estimated at about 5 times the GRP

Results: Capital Variables/Baseline ScenarioResults: Capital Variables/Baseline Scenario

POPULATION GROWTH (1E6 People)POPULATION GROWTH (1E6 People) 1975 2100

BASELINE 11.0 61.2SCENARIO 1 66.3SCENARIO 2 67.9SCENARIO 3 55.1SCENARIO 4 57.4

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Results: Capital Variables/All ScenariosResults: Capital Variables/All Scenarios

BUILT CAPITALBUILT CAPITAL1E6 US$ (2001)1E6 US$ (2001)

KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE1E6 US$ (2001)1E6 US$ (2001)

SOCIAL SOCIAL NETWORKNETWORKSNISNI

19751975 21002100 19751975 21002100 19751975 21002100

BASELINEBASELINE 555555 15,00915,009 47.847.8 810.8810.8 4.164.16 9.939.93

SCENARIO 1SCENARIO 1 23,19723,197 455.8455.8 9.869.86

SCENARIO 2SCENARIO 2 26,12426,124 313.1313.1 9.889.88

SCENARIO 3SCENARIO 3 7,3737,373 922.5922.5 9.949.94

SCENARIO 4SCENARIO 4 8,2588,258 1,238.81,238.8 9.959.95

Results: Capital Variables/Capita All ScenariosResults: Capital Variables/Capita All Scenarios

BC/CAPITABC/CAPITA1E3 US$ 1E3 US$ (2001)/Person(2001)/Person

KNOW/CAPITAKNOW/CAPITA1E3 US$ 1E3 US$ (2001)/Person(2001)/Person

SNI/CAPITASNI/CAPITASNI/PersonSNI/Person

19751975 21002100 19751975 21002100 19751975 21002100

BASELINEBASELINE 49.549.5 245.1245.1 4.34.3 13.213.2 0.370.37 0.160.16

SCENARIO 1SCENARIO 1 349.9349.9 6.96.9 0.150.15

SCENARIO 2SCENARIO 2 384.3384.3 4.64.6 0.150.15

SCENARIO 3SCENARIO 3 133.8133.8 16.716.7 0.180.18

SCENARIO 4SCENARIO 4 143.8143.8 21.621.6 0.170.17

Results: Economic Variables GRPResults: Economic Variables GRP

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GRP Legal Amazon, Brazil

BASELINE SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4

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Results: Welfare/All ScenariosResults: Welfare/All Scenarios

1975 2005 2050 2100

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.005.506.006.507.007.508.008.509.00

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Welfare Index Amazon, Brazil

BASELINE SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4

Results: Compensation for Avoided DeforestationResults: Compensation for Avoided Deforestation

Gains to the regional economy from forest conversion against losses associated with emissions

Scenario 3 (2005-2091) Forest spared from deforestation

: 210 thousand km2

Avoided Emissions: 3.0 Pg C

Foregone economic growth: US$ 1.7 Trillion

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Amazon Deforestation: Amazon Deforestation: 0.3 Pg C yr0.3 Pg C yr-1-1

Kyoto Target:Kyoto Target:0.5 Pg C yr0.5 Pg C yr-1-1

Results: Single Compensation for Results: Single Compensation for Avoided EmissionAvoided Emission

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GRP/BASELINEGRP/SCENARIO 3GRP COMPENSATED WITH SINGLE PAYMENT ($10/tonne C)GRP COMPENSATED WITH SINGLE PAYMENT ($100/tonne C)GRP COMPENSATED WITH SINGLE PAYMENT ($200/tonne C)

Results: Continuous Compensation for Results: Continuous Compensation for Avoided EmissionAvoided Emission

Discussion: Main FindingsDiscussion: Main Findings

Increasing land use change in the Brazilian Amazon incurs significant losses without this being adequately offset by increasing monetary income or welfare of people of the region.

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In the absence of significant incentives from global beneficiaries for any one ecosystem service or a combination of incentives addressing several ecosystem services, rational uses at the local level lead to sub optimal uses from the global perspective.

Discussion: AlternativesDiscussion: Alternatives

Effective Comand and Control Regulations

Efficient Market-Based Instruments: Carbon-offsetting trading Conservation Concession Timber Certification Fair Trade Secure Property Rights Tradeable Development Rights

International Grants Resources Global Forestry Agreements

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Overall ConclusionsOverall Conclusions Deforestation proceeds at high rates in

the Brazilian Amazon

The region suffers significant climate changes and losses of forest services as a result of forest removal

Increasing regional economic growth is not translated into increasing monetary income and welfare

Protection of forest will require a concerted long-term effort

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Model Limitations and CaveatsModel Limitations and Caveats

RUMBA: A unified metamodel

Use of average parameters; Assumptions to model processes that are

poorly understood; Linearly homogeneous production functions; Sensitivity of production limits of biosphere

to climate variables; Sensitivity of economic production to climate

variables and decreasing stocks of natural capital;

A economic distribution function.

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‘What we are doing to the forest of the world is but a

mirror reflection of what we are doing to ourselves

and one another’.

—Mahatma Ghandi

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