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iNEMI 2015
Technology
Roadmaps
Bill Bader, iNEMI
April 16, 2015
ICEP Kyoto 2015 Conference
Topics
iNEMI Introduction
Roadmap Process Overview
Situation Analysis
Technology Needs
Paradigm Shifts
Medical PEG Highlights
Technology Sector
Summary/Next Steps
How to Get Involved
2ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference
About iNEMI
International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI) is an industry-led
consortium of 100 global manufacturers, suppliers, industry associations,
government agencies and universities. A Non Profit Fully Funded by Member Dues;
In Operation Since 1994.
Visit us at www.inemi.org
5 Key Deliverables:
• Technology Roadmaps
• Collaborative Deployment
Projects
• Research Priorities Document
• Proactive Forums
• Position Papers
Mission: Forecast and Accelerate improvements in the Electronics
Manufacturing Industry for a Sustainable Future.
2015 Roadmap
> 500 participants
> 280 companies/organizations
20 countries from 4 continents
19 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
5 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)
≈ 2000 pages of information
Roadmaps the needs for 2015-2025
4ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference
Roadmap Contents
Organic PCBInterconnect
Assembly Customer
RF Components &
Subsystems
OptoelectronicsLarge Area, Flexible Electronics
Energy Storage Systems
Modeling, Simulation,
and Design
Semiconductor
Technology
Final
Assembly
Mass Storage (Magnetic, Optical & Solid State)
Passive Components
Test, Inspection &
Measurement
Environmentally
Sustainable
Electronics
Ceramic
Substrates
Thermal
Management
Electronic
Connectors
MEMS/
Sensors
Green=Engineering Purple=Manufacturing Blue=Component & Subsystem
Solid State Illumination
Photovoltaics
Power Conversion Electronics
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 5
Optoelectronics and
Optical Storage
Organic Printed
Circuit Boards
Magnetic and
Optical Storage
Semiconductors
iNEMI
Mass Data
Storage
TWG
iNEMI / IPC /
EIPC / TPCA
Organic PWB
TWG
iNEMI / ITRS
/ MIG/PSMA
Packaging
TWG
iNEMI
Board
Assembly
TWG
Interconnect
Substrates—Ceramic
iNEMI Roadmap
iNEMI
Optoelectronics
TWG
iNEMI /
MIG / ITRS
MEMS
TWG
iNEMI
Passives
TWG
Fourteen Contributing Organizations
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 6
Projected Global Electronics Production
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 7
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2013
2015
2017
2019
2025
Projected Global Factory OEM Electronics Production by Product Sector ($ Billion)
Consumer/Office
Portable/Wireless
High End Computing
Aerospace & Defense
Automotive
MedicalP
roje
cted
Gro
wth
1.0 %
-1.2
4.4 %
4.4%
5.3 %
5.4%
Source: IHS Technology Report to iNEMI. (Aug 2014)
Key Factors Impacting the Product Sectors
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 8
Regional Analysis
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 9
2013 Regional Electronics Production
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 10
Major Drivers
Need for continuous introduction of complex multifunctional products to address converging markets favors modular components or SiP (2-D & 3-D):
Increases flexibility
Shortens design cycle
Cloud connected digital devices have the potential to enable major disruptions across the industry:
Major transition in business models
New Power Distribution Systems for Data Centers
Huge data centers operating more like utilities (selling data services)
Local compute and storage growth may slow (as data moves to the cloud)
“Rent vs. buy” for software (monthly usage fee model)
Rapid evolution and new challenges in energy consuming products such as SSL, Automotive and more
Sensors everywhere – MEMS and wireless traffic!
“More Moore” (scaling of pitch) has reached its forecast limit and must transition to heterogeneous integration - “More Than Moore”.
11ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference
Major Drivers(continued)
The Internet of Things (IoT) is making sensors ubiquitous; however, there are concerns
about network security as cyber attacks become more pervasive.
The focus in portables will shift to “wearables” with multiple sensors providing unique user
interfaces and user interaction.
Advancement of automotive safety systems and potentially broader use in other segments.
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 12
Technology
Situation Analysis
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 13
Technology Situation Analysis
Consumers’ demand for thin multifunctional products has led to increased pressure on alternative high density packaging technologies.
High-density 3D packaging has become the major technology challenge
SiP:
Technology driver for small components, packaging, assembly processes and for high density substrates
New sensors and MEMs:
Expected to see exponential growth driven by portable products and multiple market demands
Motion gesture sensors expanding use of 2D-axis & 3D-axis gyroscopes
Segment maturing, encouraging industry collaboration
3D IC with TSV:
Driven by Performance and Size requirements
14ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference
Technology Situation Analysis – con’d
New MEMS/Sensors driven by Automotive, Medical and Cell Phone applications
Thermal Management for Portable Products (incudes 3D-TSV)
Development of viable rework process for Pb-free soldering – low temp alloys highly
desirable
Reliability Evaluation and functional testing of MEMS
Testing of Energy Managed modules
Functional Testing of Complex SIPs
Low Temperature High Reliability Processing
Significant development will be required to drive down the cost of batteries for EV (Electric
Vehicle) applications from: $600/KWh to: $200/KWh.
15ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference
Medical Product
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 16
Situation Analysis
# of people >65 yrs of age to ~double in next
20 yrs.
Bulk from China, India, developing countries
Average income levels also increasing
outside Americas/EU
Medical Electronics must execute “turn to
Asia” strategy- Build close to customers,
regulatory agencies
17
WW Demographics and incomes will drive increased demand for Medical Products of all types.
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference
MEDICAL MARKET- 2014 IHS Update
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 18
Convergence in Class III Medical Therapy Devices
Smart, Connected Medical Microelectronics Miniaturized Connected Delivering therapy
Larg
e s
yste
ms fo
r Thera
py, D
iagnostic
s,
Sto
rage a
nd C
om
munic
atio
ns
Port
able
, patient
sid
e,
dia
gnostic a
nd
monitoring
Cochlear
Vagus Nerve & Spinal
Urinary
Implant
Gastric
Retinal
Cardiac
Brain
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 19
Digital Health: New Horizons
Miniaturization / Nano
- MEMS
- Self or bio powered systems
- Localized measurement – ex lab on a chip
- Gaseous and biological sensors – military and homeland security applications.
MEM’s and Implantable Devices are a rapidly growing market segment.
New Research / Growth Areas
- Bio-Chemical Sensors
- Alternative Power and Rechargable Batteries
- Wearable, patient monitoring systems
- RF telemetry, offloading diagnostics from primary device
- Nano-scale materials, coatings and conductors
- New High Density Batteries MnO2, may lead to 10+ year life.
- Very small scale systems:
Battery for artificial retina (Sandia)
All these advancements lead to complex problems involving materials management, energy constraints, data security, reliability and above all patient safety.
20ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference
Automotive PEG
Chair: Jim Spall, Delphi
Key Automotive Market Issues
The automotive electronics industry accounted for Factory OEM Revenues ($M) of $107Bn in 2013.
The sector is expected to experience relatively strong growth through 2025, increasing at a CAAGR
of about almost 4.4% per year.
The confluence of accelerating electronic content across the globe with strong emerging market
vehicle sales growth helps explain the automotive electronics market potential over the next six
years.
From a low of just over 60M vehicles produced in 2009 during the recession, global passenger car
and light commercial vehicle unit shipments rebounded to over 75M in 2011.
China has surpassed the US as the largest car market in the world.
Overall vehicle unit shipment growth off the 2011 base is expected to grow by just under 6% per
year thereafter.
Major Trends Driving Auto Electronics
Stricter fuel economy and emissions mandates
Legislated requirements for advanced safety systems, such as
advanced airbags and on-board tire pressure monitoring
Consumer demand for:
Greater vehicle efficiencies driven by escalating global crude oil
prices
Greater safety, comfort, and convenience features
Luxury features
Growth of hybrid and electric vehicles
Embedded Semiconductors’ Growth Forecast
Miniaturization: This table provides a view of
miniaturization impact in automotive electronics
MEMS TWG
MEMS Technology Working Group The MEMS TWG is affiliated with the MEMS Industry Group (MIG)
and the ITRS
The chapter publishes its findings in the iNEMI and ITRS roadmaps in alternating
years.
The MEMS Industry Group (MIG) is the trade association advancing MEMS and
sensors across global markets.
Over 160 companies comprise MIG http://www.memsindustrygroup.org
MEMS Chapter Main Contributors Michael Gaitan (Chair), NIST Mary Ann Maher, SoftMEMS
Philippe Robert (Co-Chair), LETI Arthur Morris, Wispry
Stephen Bart, MKS Instruments Rob O'Reilly, Analog Devices
Steve Breit, Coventor Marcie Weinstein, Akustica
Allen Cowen. MEMSCAP Jianmin Miao, NTU
Alissa Fitzgerald, AF & Assoc. Ramdesh Ramados, Form Factor Inc
Karen Lightman, MIG John Rychcik, Xcerra
27
iNEMI MEMS Chapter Situation Analysis
Markets
Manufacturers
Applications
Roadmap of Quantified
Attributes: Performance, Size,
Reliability
Inertial Sensors
Microphones
RF MEMS
28
• Technology Needs
– Design
– Fabrication
– Assembly and Packaging
– Testing
• Critical Issues
– Co-Design
– Standard Process Modules
– Packaging and Integration
– Standard Testing Protocols
Device Manufacturers
29
“Bosch now holds a third of the $3.8 billion revenue shared by the top five.”
- Jean Christophe Eloy, President & CEO at Yole
Accelerometer
Magnetometer
Gyroscope
Ambient Light
Pressure
Touch
Haptic
Fingerprint
Health
Environmental
UV &RGB
Humidity
Microphone
Motion Characterization
Contextual Awareness
Health & Fitness
Smart TV Remote
Gestures
Navigation
Biometrics Unlock
Heart Rate
Blood Sugar
CO and Pollutants
Multimedia
Haptic Feedback
Building Floor
Sensors ApplicationsSmart Phones
Samsung
Apple
Adapted from “Sensors System Integration Challenges, Len Sheynblat, M2M Forum, May 2012
Microsoft
Accelerometer
Gyroscope
Magnetometer
Pressure
Microphone
Temperature
Conductivity
Camera/Optical Sensor
Micro Speakers
eNose
pH
Humidity
Galvanic Skin Response
Caloric Consumption
Exercise Intensity
Exercise Safety
Sleep Patterns
Heart Rate
Blood Pressure
Walking Directions
Gas Monitor
Altitude
Motion
Shock
Messaging
Emergency Response
Nike
BodyMedia
Fitbit
Devices Applications
Samsung
Wearables
Apple
Roadmapping MEMS
New Devices Information from Conferences, Publications, Patents
There is a long gap between discovery and production. The
“MEMS Report Card” reports a 25 year gap.
Discrete Devices Exhibit incremental improvements in performance, size, power,
cost
No “Moore’s Law” equivalent and manufacturers have little
motivation to share future device performance metrics
Multimode Sensors The steps taken for multiple types of sensors and controllers into
a single package
The Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) exemplifies integration path
Opportunities for Collaboration
Discrete Devices
Testing
Integration Path
Identify manufacturing gaps
33
Testing
Assembly, packaging, and testing can consume the bulk of the
manufacturing cost.
MEMS Industry Group studies report testing can consume as much
as 60% of the manufacturing cost
Manufacturers have developed proprietary methods for device
calibration and reliability tests.
In order to drive down costs, manufacturers must transition to
commercially available test equipment.
Device performance defined in datasheets is not based on standard
tests.
This creates a communication gap between the device
manufacturers and their customers.
34
Key
Recommendation
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 35
Standards Development
Final assembly process definitions and metrics.
MEMS standardization of reliability test methods and standards for critical applications such
as implantable medical devices.
International sustainability standards based on common databases and data sets.
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 36
Board Assembly
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 37
Process Technology
Almost 50% failure related to EOS(ESD) due to IC sensitivity to HBM or CDM
A quantitative 3-steps control approach is proposed to mitigate the EOS risk
Take ESD process capability measurement, check component spec, risk mitigation plan
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 38
Assembly Material
Continuous Lead-Free solder and low silver SAC Halogen free prevail overtime for flux
Parameter Metric 2013 2015 2017 2019 2025
Solder Pastes
Lead-free
NA* 50% 50% 60% 70% 95%
Lead-free
WW** 70% 70% 70% 80% 95%
Halogen-free
NA 10% 10% 20% 40% 85%
Halogen-free
WW 25% 25% 40% 60% 95%
Low Temp
Lead-free
Assembly
<1% <1% <1% 5% 10%
Alloys
(Lead-free)
SAC/ SAC/ SAC/ SAC/ SAC/
Modified
SnCu/ Modified SnCu/ Modified SnCu/ Modified SnCu/ Modified SnCu/
Low Ag
SAC Low Ag SAC/ Low Ag SAC/ Low Ag SAC/ Low Ag SAC/
Low Temp Low Temp
Wave Solder
Fluxes
VOC free 10% 10% 10% 15% 20%
Halogen free 10% 10% 20% 40% 70%
Assembly Material
Type Purpose
CSP / BGA Improved vibration and impact resistance
DCA (Direct Chip Attach) Maintain joint integrity during thermal and power cycling
• Underfill – two strengthening mechanisms
Underfills
Low-k ILD
JEDEC L2
@ 260
JEDEC L2 @
260
JEDEC L2 @
260
JEDEC L2 @
260
JEDEC L2 @
260
45 nm tech 45 nm tech 45 nm tech 45 nm tech 32 and below
nm tech
Pre-applied
FC
JEDEC
L2@ 260
JEDEC L2A @
260
JEDEC L2A @
260
JEDEC L2A @
260
JEDEC L1 @
260
Large Die 30 mm low-
k 30 mm low-k 30 mm low-k 30 mm low-k 30 mm low-k
CSP Reworkable Reworkable Reworkable Reworkable Reworkable >>
25%
Parameter Metric 2013 2015 2017 2019 2025
The iNEMI Roadmap
I shared a small sample of information from our roadmap
There are 19 TECHNOLOGY CHAPTERS
There are 5 PRODUCT MARKET SEGMENTS
It is a wealth of information on trends for the next 10 years
From it you can make good business investment decisions
You can choose where to focus for highest returns
You can set the winning technology and business targets
We encourage you to get a copy of the iNEMI Roadmap at:
www.inemi.org
ICEP 2015 Kyoto Cenference 41
Bill BaderBill.Bader@inemi.org
Grace O’Malleygomalley@inemi.org
Chuck Richardson
crichardson@inemi.org
Get Involved in
the iNEMI
Roadmap!!
Contact Information
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