indian ocean map

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE INDIAN CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN SMALL ISLANDS STATES: OCEAN SMALL ISLANDS STATES: CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE

INITIATIVESINITIATIVESby by

RAGOONADEN, SachoodaRAGOONADEN, Sachooda, , Consultant, Mauritius, Consultant, Mauritius, in collaboration within collaboration with

MOHABEER, Raj, Chargé de Mission, Indian MOHABEER, Raj, Chargé de Mission, Indian Ocean Commission, MauritiusOcean Commission, Mauritius

SOK APPADU Soobaraj N, Director, Meteorological SOK APPADU Soobaraj N, Director, Meteorological Services, Mauritius Services, Mauritius

AGRICOLE, Wills, Director, Meteorological AGRICOLE, Wills, Director, Meteorological Services, SeychellesServices, Seychelles

Indian Ocean mapIndian Ocean map

Global TrendGlobal Trend

• 1998 warmest year (+0.541998 warmest year (+0.54ºCºC))

• 2003 (+0.512003 (+0.51ºCºC))

• 2002 (+0.472002 (+0.47ºCºC))

• 2004 (+0.442004 (+0.44ºC)ºC)

• 2007 likely to be the warmest 2007 likely to be the warmest (+0.57(+0.57ºCºC))

Regional variations Regional variations +Trends+Trends

• MauritiusMauritius

- 7 warmest out the last 8 years since 1931- 7 warmest out the last 8 years since 1931

- 2003 (+0.79- 2003 (+0.79ºC)ºC) warmest warmest

- 2002 (+0.68- 2002 (+0.68ºCºC))

- 2006 (+0.67- 2006 (+0.67ºC)ºC)

- 1998 (+0.62ºC)- 1998 (+0.62ºC)

Regional variations Regional variations +Trends+Trends

•SeychellesSeychelles

- 1998 warmest- 1998 warmest

- 2006- 2006

- 2001- 2001

Rainfall trend in MauritiusRainfall trend in Mauritius

Maldives- Sea Level TrendMaldives- Sea Level Trend

Table I: Temperature, Rainfall and sea level changes for the period indicated

CountriesCountries PeriodPeriod Max Max TempTemp(º C)(º C)

Min Min TempTemp(ºC)(ºC)

RainfallRainfall(mm)(mm)

PeriodPeriod Sea LevelSea Level(mm/yr)(mm/yr)

ComorosComoros 1985-20041985-2004 -- -- +164+164 1985-20031985-2003 +1.29+1.29

MadagascarMadagascar unknownunknown +0.3+0.3 0.70.7 No No significant. significant.

trendtrend

1987-19981987-1998 +3.31+3.31

MaldivesMaldives -- -- -- -- 1989-20031989-2003 +1.29+1.29

MauritiusMauritius 1931-20061931-20061985-20061985-2006

+0.89+0.89+0.24+0.24

+0.39+0.39+0.91+0.91

-276-276-193-193

1986-20031986-2003--

-0.10-0.10--

SeychellesSeychelles 1972-20001972-20001985-20061985-2006

+0.41+0.41+0.27+0.27

+0.85+0.85+0.58+0.58

+502+502+684+684

1993-20041993-2004--

+1.69+1.69--

Projections-Indian OceanProjections-Indian Ocean

TemperatureTemperature RainfallRainfall

20202020 20502050 20802080 20202020 20502050 20802080

GCMGCM -- +2.1+2.1 +3.2+3.2 summersummer +3%+3% 6%6%

winterwinter +4%+4% 5%5%

Murari et Murari et alal

+0.97+0.97 +2.1+2.1 +3.16+3.16 +1.9+1.9 +3.1%+3.1% +5.1%+5.1%

Impacts of climate changeImpacts of climate change

• Comoros-734 hectares low lying area Comoros-734 hectares low lying area

floodedflooded

• Madagascar-225m of beaches inundated Madagascar-225m of beaches inundated and rate of loss of grassland by 212% and rate of loss of grassland by 212% by 2100. by 2100.

• Maldives-1m SLR loss of the entire land Maldives-1m SLR loss of the entire land of Maldives. Same fate for Agalega of Maldives. Same fate for Agalega (Mauritius) and St Brandon (Mauritius) (Mauritius) and St Brandon (Mauritius)

Impacts of Climate Change Impacts of Climate Change (contd.)(contd.)

• Mauritius- 1 m SLR lead to inundation of Mauritius- 1 m SLR lead to inundation of 12 km of primary roads and 25 km 12 km of primary roads and 25 km secondary roads, 1000 houses and secondary roads, 1000 houses and displacement of 6000 people (0.5% displacement of 6000 people (0.5% population)population)

• Seychelles-Coral bleaching of 1998 more Seychelles-Coral bleaching of 1998 more frequent. frequent.

Some measures takenSome measures taken

• Awareness campaign- electricity and water Awareness campaign- electricity and water savingsaving

• In Mauritius, CEB distributes a booklet on In Mauritius, CEB distributes a booklet on Electricity saving, Bagasse-biomass from Electricity saving, Bagasse-biomass from sugar cane- 15% of energy use, sugar cane- 15% of energy use, experiment on ethanolexperiment on ethanol

• In Seychelles, six booklets on use of CFLIn Seychelles, six booklets on use of CFL• Incentives for solar energy Incentives for solar energy • Coral sand mining bannedCoral sand mining banned

Way forwardWay forward

• Very few studies on impacts Very few studies on impacts compared to Pacific and Caribbean compared to Pacific and Caribbean regionsregions

• Some attempts by Indian Ocean Some attempts by Indian Ocean Commission but meetings onlyCommission but meetings only

Climate and Ocean Climate and Ocean observationsobservations

• Maintain Sea Level Stations for long Maintain Sea Level Stations for long term series records term series records

• Maintain primary meteorological Maintain primary meteorological stations to identify variation and trendsstations to identify variation and trends

• Strengthen Sea Surface Temperature Strengthen Sea Surface Temperature observationsobservations

Regional Committee on CC & Regional Committee on CC & SLRSLR

• No regional body on the issueNo regional body on the issue

• Propose one established under Indian Propose one established under Indian Ocean Commission Ocean Commission

Regional Report on the IORegional Report on the IO

• ““Climate Variability and Change and Sea Climate Variability and Change and Sea Level Rise in the Pacific Island regions” Level Rise in the Pacific Island regions”

• No comprehensive report on the WIONo comprehensive report on the WIO

• Need to prepare a regional report on Need to prepare a regional report on “Climate and Sea Level Variability and “Climate and Sea Level Variability and Change in the IO”Change in the IO”

Regional DatabaseRegional Database

• No harmonize system for environment No harmonize system for environment data archivedata archive

• Request to individual institution for dataRequest to individual institution for data

• UNEP EIS toolkit developedUNEP EIS toolkit developed

• All countries to adopt it for data storage All countries to adopt it for data storage

Internet PortalInternet Portal

• Information on CC scattered and Information on CC scattered and fragmentedfragmented

• Need a one stop shop for CC information Need a one stop shop for CC information for all stakeholdersfor all stakeholders

• A dedicated Internet Portal for exchange, A dedicated Internet Portal for exchange, display and communication on CC issuesdisplay and communication on CC issues

• India Ocean Commission could host it India Ocean Commission could host it

IPCC 4IPCC 4thth Assessment report Assessment report

• Very limited publicity on past IPCC Very limited publicity on past IPCC reportsreports

• Knowledge on CC & SLR very scantyKnowledge on CC & SLR very scanty

• A strategy to be developed at national A strategy to be developed at national and regional levelsand regional levels

• Popular articles, public talks in schools, Popular articles, public talks in schools, TV and radio, civil society and NGOs TV and radio, civil society and NGOs

Climate proofing National Climate proofing National Development PlansDevelopment Plans

• Integrate CC & SLR into national Integrate CC & SLR into national development plansdevelopment plans

• Six case studies- Cooks Islands and FSM- Six case studies- Cooks Islands and FSM- to demonstrate a risk base approach to to demonstrate a risk base approach to adaptation. adaptation.

• And mainstreaming adaptation in NDP and And mainstreaming adaptation in NDP and project activitiesproject activities

• Climate risk profile and return period of Climate risk profile and return period of extreme events-maximum hourly rainfall extreme events-maximum hourly rainfall and gusts, highest significant waves .and gusts, highest significant waves .

• Maldives. Need for other regions Maldives. Need for other regions

Modeling studiesModeling studies

• Most GCMs for global scale outputMost GCMs for global scale output

• Downscale output of GCM to better Downscale output of GCM to better define and understand island define and understand island processes and impactsprocesses and impacts

Concluding remarksConcluding remarks

• Much interest and opportunities to Much interest and opportunities to promote CC activities in IOpromote CC activities in IO

• Mauritius and Seychelles first two Mauritius and Seychelles first two countries to sign the UNFCCCcountries to sign the UNFCCC

• Expertise and funds limitedExpertise and funds limited

Regional proposalRegional proposal

• 1212thth Session of COP (Nairobi, November Session of COP (Nairobi, November 2006) side meeting2006) side meeting

• French delegation proposal for Capacity French delegation proposal for Capacity building enhancement on adaptation to CCbuilding enhancement on adaptation to CC

• Budget of project = Budget of project = € 3m€ 3m• Pledged = Pledged = € 1m€ 1m• Seeking partners for remaining budgetSeeking partners for remaining budget• Maldives should be included Maldives should be included

THANK THANK YOUYOU