impact of the environment on conflict
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B. Brooks
POLS 478: Causes of War
Valeriano
Climate Changes In A War Torn World:
Can Weather Affect Interstate War?
The world in which we live is constantly changing and shifting from many different
perspectives. One the most controversial in recent years is the change in the global
environment. Some scientists argue the world is becoming warmer while others argue
it is becoming cooler, or that weather patterns are simply shifting. The indisputable
fact of the matter is that there is a difference between the past climates versus that of
recent years. The causes of these changes are just as unclear as to exactly what
changes are occurring and to what extent.
Equally undeniable is that nations are struggling to to deal with the changes that are
occurring in the environment. Be it drought, or flood, heatwaves or unproductive
fishing grounds, there is significant stress involved and increasing use of resources to
deal with the crises and perceived environmental changes that are occurring. More
concerning in regard to the causation of war, are changes in the amounts of arable
land and natural boundaries such as rivers that could easily bring into question the
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borders of nations. Populations are dwindling due to diseases and starvation, possibly
leading to smaller, less well prepared militaries. Equally important are that these
stressors are causing unrest in the populace where they occur. Governments are
crumbling because they cannot provide food, shelter, and protection for their people.
Situations such as these could plausibly lead to anything from minor skirmishes to
inter-state wars, to global terrorism.
The causes of war and conflict as listed by scholars are numerous but many revolve
around the allocation of resources which gives rise to conflicts over territory. Yet how
can we as scholars adequately make the link of carbon emissions to increased
conflict? Initially it is vexing to attempt the correlation of environmental changes to
that of conflict initiation. The first task is to define the different stages or types of
conflicts that arise. It would seem to be an impossible undertaking to attempt to
directly link the increase of interstate wars with the change in the environment,
however the fall of a small nation's government giving rise to terrorist power grabs,
seems quite reasonable. Additionally, civil unrest, leading to civil war caused by a
shortage of water and inability to grow food, is also not a hard gap to bridge. The
inherent problem is that terrorist uprisings, domestic wars, and waging world war are
different conflicts and need differentiation. Certainly these types of conflicts are able
to lead to one another and arguably have done so in the past, but their classifications
should not be considered interchangeable. In the same way, dyadic wars and world
wars should not be categorized as the same types of conflicts. Because of the
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differences in the types of conflicts, their initiators and the scales on which they work,
for the purpose of this paper it behooves us to present a classification of wars and
conflicts.
Classification of Interstate War
In the interest of this dissertation, for identifying war we will rely on the classification
based off of the research that John A. Vasquez uses in his scholarly tome, The War
Puzzle Revisited. To say that his research on the subject is thorough does him
discredit; in his work, there is ample and exhaustive deliberation over the classification
of conflicts. Based on his research, we shall define the term war as, organized
sustained violence between two or more entities as an outgrowth of the political
process causing 1000 or greater human deaths. In this instance way we can
differentiate between conflicts and actual wars. More thoroughly and again to his
credit, Vasquez continues his dissection of the subject to divide between the types of
of war, however for the sake of this particular research project, there is not a single
type of war that is more or less important that the others.
Causes of Interstate War
From our definition, we have a basic grasp of the scope of what a war is but not what
is known to cause these large scale conflicts. Vasquez professes that there cannot be
a single explanation to the causes of all types of warfare. Indeed his studies,
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research, and analysis show that there are many different ways a nation goes from
disagreement to war. In the terms of interstate wars, there are four such conditions
that Vasquez identifies as causative criteria: territorial disputes, interstate rivalry, arms
races, and the formation of alliances.1
Vasquez spends significant literary real estate on the topic of territorial disputes as a
cause of war. This is because of the very significant findings of his research on the
topic. Vasquez's research shows that territorial issues ...have persistently dominated
warfare for almost 350 years. To further emphasize the importance of territorial
disputes, Table 1 from Vasquez shows quantitatively the amount of wars, at least
partially reasoned if not totally, that involve territorial disputes.
Historical Periods
Type of Issue I
(1648-1714)
II
(1715-1814)
III
(1815-1914)
IV
(1918-1941)
V
(1945- )
Territory 17 (77%) 26 (72%) 18 (58%) 22 (73%) 27 (47%)
Territoriality
Related Issues
2 4 8 6 19
Subtotal
Cumulative %
(86%) (83%) (84%) (93%) (79%)
None of the above 3 (14%) 6 (17%) 5 (16%) 2 (7%) 12 (21%)
Totals 22 36 31 30 58
Table 1: Frequency of wars involving a particular issue (Vasquez 2009)
1 Vasquez (2009) pp: 393
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Analysis of these figures shows that as time progressed their was a relatively steady
yet high rate of nations going to war over territorial dispute. Indeed, Vasquez shows
that even some other of his criteria (rivalry) are influenced by territorial dispute. If
territorial disputes provide such a powerful explanation, it stands that if territorial
boundaries shift or come into question, the nations who are involved in the dispute
would have a much higher likelihood of going to war.
Interstate rivalry is another major causation of war. We look to Diehl and Goertz's
operational definition of rivalry in order to best understand what Vasquez's steps to
war involve. Diehl and Goertz start by showing state rivalries have a propensity for
military conflict. Their second criteria is the use of an inductive method of identifying
and classifying rivalry to include the use of empirical patterns to identify rivals. On the
back of this Diehl and Goertz's third criteria for identifying interstate rivalry is a time-
density measurement versus militarized dispute. Their final criteria is a dyadic focus.
According to their research the condensed causes of rivalry include polarity, the dyad
or individual nation-states, and political shocks.2 Vasquez also provides input on this
topic from his text, by showing evidence that involvement in militarized disputes is a
contributing factor for rivals to continue with an onset to interstate war. Here he also
points out that territorial disputes are major point of contention between rivals
especially when they are contiguous states.3 Diehl and Goertz typify rivals based on
2 Diehl and Goertz (2000) pp: 39-51
3 Vasquez (2009) pp: 78-87
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their criteria and into three categories, shown in table 2. Of all of these rivalries, based
on the amount of conflicts and time involved in a rivalry, Diehl and Goertz enforce
Vasquez's claims that territorial disputes are a major contributing factor to the
causation of rivalrous wars, by showing that two of their five empirically important
rivalry criteria involve territory issues.4
Rivalry Type N (%)
Isolated 880 (76)
Proto 223 (19)
Enduring 63 (5)
6-13 disputes 36 (3)
> 13 disputes 27 (2)
Total 1166 (100)
Table 2: Rivalries Typified (Diehl and Goertz 2000)
Of Vasquez's four steps to war, the one that seems to be the most prominent and
consistent cause of the onset of interstate war is territorial dispute. However, in
combination, the steps increase the likelihood that two or more nations will end up
going to war with each other exponentially. But what about intrastate, or civil wars?
For all of his research, Vasquez does not give much regard to this type of conflict
admittedly because the research conducted for his The War Puzzle Revisited in-
depth study focuses almost exclusively on interstate wars.
4 Diehl and Goertz (2000) pp 58-59
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Defining Civil Wars
Since civil disputes, even wars are not addressed thoroughly in the context of the one
text, we must seek the definition from another point of view. James Fearon makes an
excellent definition of civil war in his article Iraq's Civil War. In this work, Fearon
describes civil war as a violent conflict within a country fought by organized groups
that aim to take power at the center in a region, or to change government policies.
He continues, also acknowledging the benchmark of 1000 death casualties as one of
the defining factors of the term war itself, but does not make the direct connection of
civil war to this number. For the sake of simplicity in the paper, we shall make use of
the inferred connection to define any term for war to include the 1000 casualty clause.
However this still leaves us with the question of as to what the causes of civil wars
are.5
Causes of Civil Wars and other Internal Conflicts
Derived from our modified Fearon's definition, we catch the inference of a reason for
civil war as one group's attempt to overthrow the government in power. However,
whole populations do not spontaneously rise up one day and decide to change the
ruling regime, especially not through uncertain, violent means. What reasons do we
find to show why civil wars, that is one side trying to violently overthrow the other for
control, occur?
5 Fearon (2007)Iraq's Civil War
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Unlike the relatively firm causes of interstate wars, the tinder and fuel for civil wars
seems to be as heavily disputed as the topic of climate change. There is plethora
research studies on the subject attempting to pin-point the various causative factors of
intrastate conflict. Jeffery Dixon of Texas A&M University, using a comparative study
has compiled data from over 46 studies, covering 200 variables on the topic. In his
work, What Causes Civil Wars?: Integrating Quantitative Research Findings, he cites
the authors findings and provides his own analytical insight from a statistical
standpoint concerning both the causative and mitigating factors of civil war. In these
cases of analysis he uses the standard Pearson Correlation Coefficient to determine if
there is a statistical significance to the findings.
While there are few, if no, 100% percent solutions to the civil war equation, there are
some contributing factors that have very strong correlations. One such factor is the
demographics of a nation in regard to population density. Dixon finds in particular that
Table 3: Studies showing various demographic factors as a cause for civil war (Dixon 2009)
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increased population density proves to be a causative factor for civil war but only in
the circumstance that the entire nation have a evenly distributed high population
density. When the nation's population density is distributed unevenly, (that is high
density in certain areas, and low density in others) then the study indicates that the
population density does not contribute as greatly to a causation of civil war. In the
same vein, countries with higher populations are shown to have a greater propensity
for civil war. Ethnic heterogeneity was also found to be a significant factor in the
contribution of civil war and conflict however because there is no correlation between
a nation ethnicity and the change of the environment, it cannot warrant further mention
at this time. Table 2 summarizes Dixon's analysis on the effects of demographics as
a causative factor in civil war.
Dixon's findings continue with a study of geographical factors as a cause for civil
conflict. The findings here are significant leading to how the environment could, at
least indirectly, affect conflict within a nation. Here, Dixon's research shows that there
is a significant risk for nations in the Middle East and those in Asia for civil war.
Additionally, there is the factor of soil degradation which comes under the
environmental destruction category, another environmentally and climate affected
factor. The data findings here indicate that when there is a high level of soil
degradation, there is a significantly high chance of a civil war. Also in this category, is
the local water scarcity and fresh water per capita factors, which too are shown to be
significant contributors to civil war. Dixon comments on these factors that, in general,
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there is substantial evidence that severe environmental destruction is dangerous.
Table 3 shows Dixon's compiled findings on the effects of geography and
environmental factors in concern to the causation of civil war.
As one might suspect, Dixon also find thats weak or unstable governmental regimes
are very prone to civil war. Along those same lines, there is a strong negative
correlation with Gross Domestic Product and civil war. Conversely, there are other
factors with just as strong correlations, showing contributions which may mitigate the
causes off civil wars. Table 4 covers Dixon's overall findings in general terms and
gives us a good starting point with which to identify effective causes of civil wars. In
Dixon's research, environmental factors and weak government are shown to be the
largest escalatory factors in the onset of civil conflicts and wars.
Table 4: Geographic and environmental factors in the cause of civil wars (Dixon 2009)
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The Vital Link: Civil War and Interstate War
While not immediately apparent, and in many cases, said to be not correlated, there
has been little study to show that civil wars and interstate wars have much to do with
each other. More investigation however has provided evidence that civil war and
Table 5: Consensus determinants of civil war (Dixon 2009)
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international conflict are not only related, but correlate directly with the other. In a
study by Giacomo Chiozza et al., entitled, Civil War, Tenure, and Interstate
Insecurity, the team of researchers from different schools around the United States
find that there is, in fact, a trifecta relationship between civil war, international conflict,
and a nation's leader losing office. Sourcing the Correlates of War project and other
datasets on wars and conflicts, Chiozza et al. find that there is a two-way direct
correlation between civil armed conflicts/ wars and a nation's likelihood for involving
itself in interstate wars. Likewise, there is a two-way positive correlation between the
weakness of a state and a state's propensity to engage in civil conflict. However, there
is a two-way indirect correlation between the tenure of a state's leader and directly
engaging in interstate conflicts. That is to say, in the two-way direct correlations, when
one variable increases, the other increases and vice versa. Just the opposite is true in
the indirect correlation, that when a leader is involved in international war, their tenure
is reduced and vice versa. These correlational links show us that while typically
considered to be an in-house matter, civil war may very well lead to, or at the very
least contribute to, the risks of interstate war. The opposite relationship should be
considered as well. 6 It stands then, according to this circular logic presented by
Chiozza, that there could be an escalatory and reducing spiral effects between the
two-way factors. Chiozza does mention that how much these factors contribute to
conflict escalation or pacification seems to be dependent upon the nation, leader, and
governmental style of a particular nation. Overall however the study does not
address secondary relationships but focuses strictly on the adjacent factors. Most
6 Chiozza (2004) Civil War, Tenure, and Interstate Insecurity
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significant to the topic of this paper however, is that the link between civil war and
interstate war have been made. Therefore, we can theorize that any factor
contributing to civil war, then also has the ability to contribute to interstate war.
Though we can theorize the link between the two conflicts based on Chiozza's
research, the extent to which a causative factor of civil war influences the onset of
intestate war cannot at this time be determined without further and significant empirical
research.
Climate Change
The topic of climate change is itself a point of conflict and though not physically,
certainly a war from the viewpoint of it's advocates and critics. More specifically, the
topic of global warming is one of great and vehement dispute amongst scientists,
laypersons, and especially politicians. Some say, including United States Senator, Al
Gore, that global warming is a very real threat and cause for immediate action in the
case of reducing green house gas (GHG) emissions on a global level. In this case,
Sen. Gore had made it his personal mission to advocate green economies and
industry in an attempt to combat the threat of global warming7. Refuting the global
warming crisis however, are just as many scientists and prominent political figures as
there are those professing it.
One such scholar is MIT professor of Meteorology, Richard S. Lindzen. denies that the
7 algore.com
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crude idea of a greenhouse catastrophe is in fact occurring or inevitable and that
carbon dioxide concentrations have been increasing since the 1800s for a multitude of
reasons, though not the least of which is the burning of fossil fuels.8 Despite the
conflicts between the two camps the only substantiated statement is that there is not
enough data to support either claim. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's data shows that while there is a change in climate, that it is not
extreme nor is it the anticipatedly warm trend.9 In a interview with the Wall Street
Journal's Anne Jolis, Gilbert Compo, a researcher assigned to NOAA's 20th Century
Reanalysis (V2) project, explained what can be interpreted from the vast database of
meteorologic measurements. In concern of global climate and weather pattern
changes, Gilbert is quoted, In the [theoretical] climate models, the extremes get more
extreme as we move into a doubled CO2 world in 100 years so we were surprised that
none of the three major indices of climate variability that we used show a trend of
increased circulation going back to 1871.10
Evidence does not point to a increased
trend in climate change, but that
climate and temperature changes
are actually more of a constant, we
will have to consider the impacts of
different climate anomalies in their
respective regions in regard to the
influence of climate and
8 Lindzen (1992) Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus
9 NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis V2 data
10 Jolis (2011) The Weather Isn't Getting Weirder
Illustration 1: Geographic areas affected directly (red)
and indirectly (blue) by ENSO (Hsiang 2011)
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temperature changes in the
context of these phenomena
contributing to the causation of
wars.
How Climate Can Bring
Conflict?
Of course, it is not the El Nio or any other climate or weather phenomena itself that is
the direct cause of war. That is to say, the people of a nation do not go to war simply
because it is an El Nio year. For a many years, military experts, soldiers, and officers
alike have suspected that there is a direct correlation between the heat index of a
nation and it's propensity for conflict both internally and with it's neighbors. In other
words the suspicion has been that, the hotter the nation is on average, the more likely
there is to be war in those nations. There have been many studies and cataloged
incidents revolving around the impact of heat and how affects the human mind and
decision making. It seems too that there now is evidence to support the fact that
increased environmental factors such as those caused by the El Nio weather
anomalies, will even cause an increase in conflict. This was the basis of a study led
by Solomon Hsiang and associates of Columbia University. Entitled, Civil conflicts
are associated with global climate, Hsiang et al perform empirical research on the
history of El Nio years to see if there is a correlation between the years when civil
wars occurred in countries affected by the weather anomaly. The findings of the study
Table 6: Conflicts started during one-third most El Nio-
like years (Hsiang 2011)
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solidly show that there is an increase in civil conflict and war in countries that are
directly affected by El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The research was
conducted very thoroughly in order to ensure that findings from one continent in
particular did not skew the data. Likewise, the time periods tested preclude the years
immediately after World War II so that the creation of many new nations would not
adversely affect the research results. Starting with data from 1975 and going to 2004,
the study clearly shows that during El Nio years and seasons, there is a significant
increase in the amount of civil conflicts that occur in comparison to those in the control
group, La Nia years and seasons. Illustration 1 shows the areas of the globe directly
and indirectly affected by the ENSO phenomena. Red indicates the areas that are
directly impacted and thusly, according to the study, more prone to civil conflicts and
wars during the El Nio season. Hsiang continues with showing his findings of direct
correlation in time series regressions, linear and best fit model lines, and the bar graph
reproduced in Table 5. More importantly he attempts to explain this correlation
through the impact of the ENSO phenomena on the the GDP per capita of the affected
nations. Hsiang's argument here is that there are economic hardships in the directly
affected countries during the El Nio years. Here he reports the associated problems
with El Nio seasons including poor agricultural performance, increased tropical
cyclone activity and disease outbreak affect both non-agrarian societies and agrarian
societies alike. The study then cites Larrick and Timmerman, stating that altered
environmental conditions stress the human psyche, which can lead to aggressive
behavior. Hsiang closes by reiterating that El Nio can simultaneously lead to adverse
economic and psychological effects increasing the likelihood of conflict and calling for
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more research on the simultaneous global impact of ENSO phenomena on conflict
escalation.11 For all his groundbreaking research and suggestive evidence which
shows the impacts of ENSO on civil conflict onset, Hsiang's research does not shed
any light on the question of weather there is a correlation between climate change and
the causation of interstate wars.
But were the military superstitions then correct? If the temperature of the globe rises,
be it from an El Nio or any other phenomena, should we suspect an increase in
violent behavior? A study by Richard P. Larrick et al. shows that there may be some
credence to this hypothesis with an unrelated psychological study. In his 2011 study,
Larrick analyzes data from over 57,000 Major League Baseball games in order to find
a direct link to heat and retaliation. Despite a large amount of studies, attempting to
directly link human aggression to higher temperatures,12 Larrick instead finds a
distinct correlation between heat and retaliation. When a batter on a pitcher's team
was hit by an opposing pitch, there was a significant jump in the probability that an
individual from the opposing would be hit by a pitch as well when heat indexes were
higher. In fact, Illustration 2 shows the nearly linear, direct correlation of the two
incidences in regard to heat indices. While a significant finding in the field of human
psychology, it is not certain how this correlation would affect persons making decisions
at the strategic level unless no climate control was available to them. If it were to be a
significant factor in the decision to go to war, it is safe to say this factor would almost
11 Hsiang (2011) Civil Conflicts Are Associated With the Global Conflict
12 Anderson et al (1995)Hot Temperatures, Hostile Affect, Hostile Cognition, and Arousal... amongst many other studies
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certainly affect escalation of the rivalry between two dyads engaged in a rivalrous
relationships. This escalation or acceleration in rivalrous behavior, in turn, could
aggravate MIDs or even promote the approach to full-fledged war. In this case, there
would need to be more research performed in order to see if a consistent rise in
temperature would also cause an increase of retaliatory decisions at the national level.
Theoretical Influences Of the
Weather
Showing how influential the
existence of territorial dispute is
in regard to the likelihood that two
neighboring dyads may go to war
is possibly the easiest way to link
the influence of the changing
environment to that of the onset
of interstate war. In theory, a
nation that has natural borders
should not have to worry about
them changing very much over a
few years time. However, in the recent history, regardless of the claims of climate
change nay-sayers, there has been an increase in the water levels in some areas of
the globe. In others, there has been increasing desertification significantly in addition
Illustration 2: Predicted probability of a batter being hit as a
function of temperature and the number of the pitcher'steammates hit by the opposing team's pitcher earlier in the
game. (Larrick 2011)
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to disappearing rivers and streams. To be blunt, while there does seem to be climate
changes, the data tables that are available are mostly from the late 1990s and do not
accurately reflect the state of the world as it is and especially not the worst case
scenarios published in some late 20th century works13. However, this does not mean
that significant changes to geography may not occur due to environmental changes.
Vasquez shows that there is a significant amount of interstate war associated with
territorial disputes. Indeed this is one of the greatest contributors in the steps to war,
showing in some time periods 90% of wars being associated with territorial dispute
(refer to Table 1). The land itself is not necessarily the desirable asset but what can be
produced from the land or built on it is what give the territory its value. Additionally,
there may be a significant value in a mostly worthless piece of land resource wise, if it
provides military advantage. This is quite easily evidenced by the rampant colonialism
of European nations in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Those nations did not
colonize a country unless their was a reasonable expectation that the cost in military
personnel and gold would produce a significant return. Any of these appeal factors
however can change through the doomsday predictions of climate change. If ocean
levels and shoreline erosion become more problematic, not only may the square
footage of land become more scarce but the resources that can be gleaned from the
same land and its strategic values may change. Additionally, we would expect to see
island nations looking to increase their holdings of arable land in order to support their
populace. If the situation became dire enough it would not be surprising to see such a
13 Refer to http://www.grida.no/ for UNEP/GRID-Arendal compliations
http://www.grida.no/http://www.grida.no/ -
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nation looking for a weak neighbor to opportunistically assimilate. In the same vein, if
the borders of a nation were changed because of rising sea levels, there would very
likely be territorial disputes, especially if the new land shape proves to be economically
advantageous such as the case of a natural harbor. A difficult hypothesis to prove, the
best way to predict if such behavior would indeed come about would be to create a
simulation coastline where two nation's borders meet and see if what the conflict over
a loss of land would occur when a desirable coastal feature occurs on the boarder of
the two nations. According to Vasquez, we would expect to see contest over the land
feature and a high probability of the disputing nations going to war because of it,
especially when conjoined with Vasquez's other steps to war.
If there is an increase in desertification, increase in flooded areas, and other factors
that disturb the ability for a populace to produce sustenance for its people, we would
expect to see an increase of conflict as well. Indeed, these are the warnings put forth
in analysis of Homer-Dixon's work by Gleditsch and Urdal. In their work, entitled
Ecoviolence? Links Between Population Growth, Environmental Scarcity and Violent
Conflict in Thomas Homer-Dixon's Work, they state that while Homer-Dixon was
certainly attempting to show how a changing environment will cause problems for the
populace, it is because of supply-induced scarcities can cause violent intrastate
conflict. Here Gleditsch and Urdal state that bluntly that Homer-Dixon does not
foresee a rise in interstate conflict. However, Chiozza's findings show that a rise in
civil conflict may directly result in interstate conflict. Confirmed by both Homer-Dixon's
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and Chiozza is the fact that a weakened state government has a greater propensity for
civil war.
Conclusions
It is clear that the causes of interstate war can be defined through Vasquez's Steps to
War. Rivalry and territorial disputes are two of the largest contributors to the steps to
war with territory being the most inflammatory issue. Neither Vasquez's nor Diehl and
Goertz's studies attribute rivalry or territorial disputes to civil conflict, admittedly
because they were not trying to attribute these causes of war to civil conflict. Nor were
they considering the environment as a possible contributing factor to the causes of
war. However, in light of the other studies reviewed we find that there is evidence to
suggest that the change in the environment may also affect the interactions between
persons and between states. The increase in temperature can cause an increase in
retaliation, suggesting more aggressive behavior, especially dangerous in context of
rivalry. The decrease in land mass or the change of borders and shorelines due to
desertification and shifting shorelines could certainly give rise to territorial dispute.
Through Chiozza's research we see the causes of civil wars can also be attributed as
contributions of interstate war. From this new perspective, we find that drought,
population density, famine, and the allocation of wealth, all could be contributing
factors to the rise of wars, though to what extent is yet to be seen. Though there are a
myriad of conflicting reports about the truth of global warming, it is plausible that
environmental conditions can be a contributing factor to the causes of interstate war.
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