icwes15 - a digital future and resource depletion. presented by jackie m carpenter, uk

A Digital Future

and

Resource Depletion

by Jackie Carpenter BSc CEng MIMechE

22 July 2011 ICWES15 Adelaide

The Digital Age is new

Computers were not around when I was born in 1950

I didn’t see a PC until I was in my 30’s

We didn’t have microprocessors in washing machines, cars and printers

We didn’t have printers! And no mobile phones either!

Resource depletion - oil

Everything has changed fast in my life

Cheap oil has fuelled the changes Faster and faster! But the oil won’t last for much

longer It is a finite resource (one of many

finite resources)

“Peak Oil” is a big issue

Why is Peak Oil important?

The peak for conventional oil was declared to be 2006 last year by WEO

Our society and economy depends on oil for transport, food, medicine

We could change to other energy sources, but we are not changing fast

1 gram of silicon chip needs 630 grams of fossil fuel

Peak Oil in Australia

Your life-style includes driving huge distances, currently using oil

You rely on oil-powered ships to export coal, sugar etc.

If the economies of other countries collapse because of oil shortages, your markets will collapse

The oil age

We are not “running out” of oil At the peak, half is left But the first half was cheap and easy The second half will be expensive

and hard-to-get Competition from China etc too Tar sands, shales, deep-water - all

expensive and hard-to-get

Wait! “Peak Oil” is a myth!

As energy shortages develop, we will find new sources of energy

People are clever; technology will solve all our problems

The current recession is temporary and we will soon be “back to normal”

Not a myth, but a new story

We tell ourselves stories We tell ourselves that next year is

going to be the same as last year Well, not quite the same, the

details will be different But we shall still drive about, have

mobile phones and use computers. Won’t we? That is the first story.

A second story

Here is a second story The future will change faster than

my life has changed so far The only certainty is uncertainty We will stop driving about in

petrol cars - that at least is certain. (Is it?)

The Digital Age will continue

The second story

Will computers stay with us? Yes! As the price of petrol goes up,

everyone will work from home more Less transport will reduce climate

change problems We shall use our digital know-how

to increase efficiency and develop green technologies

The second story

More working-from-home will benefit women

Perhaps women will be more flexible, quicker to change and adapt?

Perhaps women will benefit from the “end of office politics”?

Perhaps we can drive the changes and set the salaries?

Helicopter vision

Is there a third story?

Not just oil shortages

The Earth is finite All non-renewable materials are finite Computers, digital devices and other

new technologies need materials that are in short supply

Important materials include gold, silver, platinum, indium, gallium, lithium and rare earths.

And water

Lead, copper, zinc

Gold

Lithium

World resources are 9,813 k tonnes (7,500 of these are in Chile) That’s 1.5 kg per person Not much for my laptop batteries,

electric car and mobile phones! Wikipedia says “used for disposable

batteries” What about my grandsons?

Rare earths

Third story

The end of economic growth Instead, growth in happiness

Older cultures

Tribes of 50 - 100 people Lived in the present. Free, no slavery. Didn’t build up wealth Considered themselves to be part of

the world, part of Nature They believed their destiny was to

cooperate with the rest of creation Sustainable. Existed for 50,000 years

Community

The third story could be a return to the sustainable Older Culture way

Going forward to a new future, not going backwards

Living in Community Local food and energy Good local technology

Trelay Community

The third story

Will computers stay with us? Maybe.

The third story

The beginning of a more sustainable Digital Age

Great efforts to make computers locally, with local materials

New attitude to long life and re-use

Determination to maintain the web

The third story – challenges!

Can we develop the technology to transmit power without wires - soon?

Can we find a way to make silicon chips on a small scale with low energy and water inputs?

Can we make computers that will last 100 years?

The third story

The female way of thinking will become more important than

the male way of thinking

A fourth story?

Doom for the human species!

“At last they’ve gone!”

Jackie CarpenterTrelay Farm, St Gennys, Bude,

Cornwall

jackie@trelay.org