icwes15 - a digital future and resource depletion. presented by jackie m carpenter, uk
TRANSCRIPT
A Digital Future
and
Resource Depletion
by Jackie Carpenter BSc CEng MIMechE
22 July 2011 ICWES15 Adelaide
The Digital Age is new
Computers were not around when I was born in 1950
I didn’t see a PC until I was in my 30’s
We didn’t have microprocessors in washing machines, cars and printers
We didn’t have printers! And no mobile phones either!
Resource depletion - oil
Everything has changed fast in my life
Cheap oil has fuelled the changes Faster and faster! But the oil won’t last for much
longer It is a finite resource (one of many
finite resources)
“Peak Oil” is a big issue
Why is Peak Oil important?
The peak for conventional oil was declared to be 2006 last year by WEO
Our society and economy depends on oil for transport, food, medicine
We could change to other energy sources, but we are not changing fast
1 gram of silicon chip needs 630 grams of fossil fuel
Peak Oil in Australia
Your life-style includes driving huge distances, currently using oil
You rely on oil-powered ships to export coal, sugar etc.
If the economies of other countries collapse because of oil shortages, your markets will collapse
The oil age
We are not “running out” of oil At the peak, half is left But the first half was cheap and easy The second half will be expensive
and hard-to-get Competition from China etc too Tar sands, shales, deep-water - all
expensive and hard-to-get
Wait! “Peak Oil” is a myth!
As energy shortages develop, we will find new sources of energy
People are clever; technology will solve all our problems
The current recession is temporary and we will soon be “back to normal”
Not a myth, but a new story
We tell ourselves stories We tell ourselves that next year is
going to be the same as last year Well, not quite the same, the
details will be different But we shall still drive about, have
mobile phones and use computers. Won’t we? That is the first story.
A second story
Here is a second story The future will change faster than
my life has changed so far The only certainty is uncertainty We will stop driving about in
petrol cars - that at least is certain. (Is it?)
The Digital Age will continue
The second story
Will computers stay with us? Yes! As the price of petrol goes up,
everyone will work from home more Less transport will reduce climate
change problems We shall use our digital know-how
to increase efficiency and develop green technologies
The second story
More working-from-home will benefit women
Perhaps women will be more flexible, quicker to change and adapt?
Perhaps women will benefit from the “end of office politics”?
Perhaps we can drive the changes and set the salaries?
Helicopter vision
Is there a third story?
Not just oil shortages
The Earth is finite All non-renewable materials are finite Computers, digital devices and other
new technologies need materials that are in short supply
Important materials include gold, silver, platinum, indium, gallium, lithium and rare earths.
And water
Lead, copper, zinc
Gold
Lithium
World resources are 9,813 k tonnes (7,500 of these are in Chile) That’s 1.5 kg per person Not much for my laptop batteries,
electric car and mobile phones! Wikipedia says “used for disposable
batteries” What about my grandsons?
Rare earths
Third story
The end of economic growth Instead, growth in happiness
Older cultures
Tribes of 50 - 100 people Lived in the present. Free, no slavery. Didn’t build up wealth Considered themselves to be part of
the world, part of Nature They believed their destiny was to
cooperate with the rest of creation Sustainable. Existed for 50,000 years
Community
The third story could be a return to the sustainable Older Culture way
Going forward to a new future, not going backwards
Living in Community Local food and energy Good local technology
Trelay Community
The third story
Will computers stay with us? Maybe.
The third story
The beginning of a more sustainable Digital Age
Great efforts to make computers locally, with local materials
New attitude to long life and re-use
Determination to maintain the web
The third story – challenges!
Can we develop the technology to transmit power without wires - soon?
Can we find a way to make silicon chips on a small scale with low energy and water inputs?
Can we make computers that will last 100 years?
The third story
The female way of thinking will become more important than
the male way of thinking
A fourth story?
Doom for the human species!
“At last they’ve gone!”
