hurricane charley: a retrospectiveflghc.org/ppt/2014/workshops/ws122 ten yrs after... · 2004...

Hurricane Charley: A Retrospective2014 Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference

2004 Hurricane Season: Storm Tracks

Satellite Images of 2004 Hurricanes

Charley Frances

Ivan Jeanne

Three Hurricanes in Polk County in 1 Year!Last Hurricane was in 1960

2004 Hurricane Season Statistics

First system formed July 31, 2004

Last system dissipated December 5, 2004

Strongest storm Ivan , 165 mph (270 km/h)

Total depressions 16

Total storms 15

Hurricanes 9

Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) 6

Total fatalities 3000+

Total damage $44 billion in U.S.

2004 Storms That Hit Florida

Name Dates

Max

Wind

Direct

Deaths

U.S.

Damage

Bonnie Aug 3-13 65 mph 3 Minor

Charley Aug 9-14 150 mph 15 $15.1 billion

Frances Aug 25 – Sep 8 145 mph 7 $9.5 billion

Ivan Sep 2-24 165 mph 91 $18.8 billion

Jeanne Sep 13-28 120 mph 3,000+ $7 billion

2004 Hurricane Fatalities in Florida

• 32 direct

hurricane deaths

• 91 indirect

deaths

The most since

the 1935 Labor

Day hurricane

that hit the

Florida Keys!

Storm Surge

Wind/Wave

Tornado

Flood

Wind

Wave

91 Indirect Fatalities

Power

Stress

Motor

Vehicle

Other

Cleanup

• Cleanup– Debris Removal– Roof Repair

• Power Related– Carbon Monoxide– Candle Fire– Electrocution

• Stress Related– Heart Attack– Suicide– Storm Preparations

• Motor Vehicle Accident– Roadway Obstruction– Traffic Signal Outage

• OtherTotal: 91 Indirect FatalitiesData: Florida Medical Examiners Commission Note: Not a comprehensive list of causes

38%

8%

25%

16%

13%

(34)

(7)

(12)

(15)

(23)

2004 Hurricane Charley

Daniel Noah

NWS Tampa Bay

Wayne Sallade

Charlotte County EM

Scott Spratt

NWS Melbourne

Costliest U.S. Atlantic HurricanesAdjusted for Inflation

9 of the Top 10 have

occurred in the last ten

years

Charley in Florida

- 9 direct fatalities

- 20 indirect fatalities

Newspaper Headlines

Television Coverage

Charley Was Mainly a Wind Event

Arcadia, FL

Newspaper HeadlinePerception is Reality

Yellow

Dots

Actual

Position

weather.gov/tampabay

<120 miles“Very small/

midget”Charley

120-180 miles “Small” Allison

180-360 miles “Average” Frances

360-480 miles “Large” Wilma

>480 miles “Very large” Gilbert

Determined by distance from center to outermost closed isobar

Storm Size Matters

weather.gov/tampabay

2004 Charley Size vs 1988 GilbertMax Diameter of T.S. Force Winds

488 Miles

Charley vs Frances Wind Field

Charley2004

Frances 2004

Orange/Purple = Hurricane Wind, Green/Yellow = Tropical Storm

weather.gov/tampabay

2004 Hurricane CharleyLandfall on Friday, August 13

wunderground archive

Fast moving

storm

at 20 mph

2004 Hurricane Charley Makes Landfall

Very Small Eye WallDamage Similar to 20 Mile Wide F2 Tornado

Charley Enters Charlotte HarborNotice the “moat”

Hurricanes vs Mobile Homes

Boca Grande

Captiva

Hardee County

No electricity in county for 9 days

The Power of Flowing Water

Dangers of Flooding from Heavy Rains

A man was killed when his car went into the water covered

hole on Highway 60 near Lake Wales during Charley

Lannis Waters

The Palm Beach Post

Charley Brought Out Different Sides of People

I Was in the Lee County Emergency Operations Center

How About Hurricane Intensity Forecasts?

Over 23 years

No improvement in

first 24 hours

Little improvement

at 48 and 72 hours

Big improvement at

96 and 120 hours

Damage Crossed Florida

Arcadia

Tampa

*

Widespread Panic

Photo Courtesy of Scott Moe

“I never felt so helpless and small in all my life.”David Gaylord St. Petersburg, FL

~1,400 people were in this auditorium

“All we could hear was yelling and screaming as widespread panic set in”

Hurricane Charley Well Inland

Surge and Wind Probabilities

Wind Probabilities Were Not Available in 2014

Chances of hurricane-force winds at Tampa Bay

and Port Charlotte are both around 30%

2004 Hurricane Charley’s Eye Wall was Tiny

7 ft

surge12 mile

wide

eye wall

What if Charley was a Normal Size Storm?

18 ft50 mile

wide

eye wall

New Surge Product

Harnessing the

power of Social

Science and

input from key

partners in the

Media and

Emergency

Management

Experimental Storm Surge Inundation Map

• Available on NHC website at

http://hurricanes.gov

• Created when warning issued, about

48 hours before impact

• 45 to 60 minutes after Advisory issued

• Updated every 6 hours

Storm Surge Maps are in AGL @ High TideExample of 1-in-10 chance of water depth

Not the “worse case” but a realistic worse case based on current storm

On NHC Website at Hurricanes.gov

Fact Sheets

• Public

• Media

• Emergency Management

NWS Tampa Bay Social Media

http://weather.gov/tampabay

@NWSTampaBay

US.NationalWeatherService.TampaBay.gov

http://www.youtube.com/NWSTampa

2014 Forecast Cone has Gone on a Diet Since 2004

Size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical

official forecast errors over the previous 5 years

2014 Forecast Cone

72-Hour Forecast Cone: 2004 vs 2014

2014

Cone

What if Charley Followed Skinny Black Line? Radar Simulation Below

Project PhoenixTampa Bay Regional Planning Council

http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/scenario.shtml

The Role of your local NWS Forecast Office

Analyze all

the various

products and

forecasts

Develop

localized

picture of

timing and

impact

Communicate

uncertainty and

impacts so our

customers can

make informed

decisions