hurricane charley: a retrospectiveflghc.org/ppt/2014/workshops/ws122 ten yrs after... · 2004...
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Hurricane Charley: A Retrospective2014 Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference
2004 Hurricane Season: Storm Tracks
Satellite Images of 2004 Hurricanes
Charley Frances
Ivan Jeanne
Three Hurricanes in Polk County in 1 Year!Last Hurricane was in 1960
2004 Hurricane Season Statistics
First system formed July 31, 2004
Last system dissipated December 5, 2004
Strongest storm Ivan , 165 mph (270 km/h)
Total depressions 16
Total storms 15
Hurricanes 9
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) 6
Total fatalities 3000+
Total damage $44 billion in U.S.
2004 Storms That Hit Florida
Name Dates
Max
Wind
Direct
Deaths
U.S.
Damage
Bonnie Aug 3-13 65 mph 3 Minor
Charley Aug 9-14 150 mph 15 $15.1 billion
Frances Aug 25 – Sep 8 145 mph 7 $9.5 billion
Ivan Sep 2-24 165 mph 91 $18.8 billion
Jeanne Sep 13-28 120 mph 3,000+ $7 billion
2004 Hurricane Fatalities in Florida
• 32 direct
hurricane deaths
• 91 indirect
deaths
The most since
the 1935 Labor
Day hurricane
that hit the
Florida Keys!
Storm Surge
Wind/Wave
Tornado
Flood
Wind
Wave
91 Indirect Fatalities
Power
Stress
Motor
Vehicle
Other
Cleanup
• Cleanup– Debris Removal– Roof Repair
• Power Related– Carbon Monoxide– Candle Fire– Electrocution
• Stress Related– Heart Attack– Suicide– Storm Preparations
• Motor Vehicle Accident– Roadway Obstruction– Traffic Signal Outage
• OtherTotal: 91 Indirect FatalitiesData: Florida Medical Examiners Commission Note: Not a comprehensive list of causes
38%
8%
25%
16%
13%
(34)
(7)
(12)
(15)
(23)
2004 Hurricane Charley
Daniel Noah
NWS Tampa Bay
Wayne Sallade
Charlotte County EM
Scott Spratt
NWS Melbourne
Costliest U.S. Atlantic HurricanesAdjusted for Inflation
9 of the Top 10 have
occurred in the last ten
years
Charley in Florida
- 9 direct fatalities
- 20 indirect fatalities
Newspaper Headlines
Television Coverage
Charley Was Mainly a Wind Event
Arcadia, FL
Newspaper HeadlinePerception is Reality
Yellow
Dots
Actual
Position
weather.gov/tampabay
<120 miles“Very small/
midget”Charley
120-180 miles “Small” Allison
180-360 miles “Average” Frances
360-480 miles “Large” Wilma
>480 miles “Very large” Gilbert
Determined by distance from center to outermost closed isobar
Storm Size Matters
weather.gov/tampabay
2004 Charley Size vs 1988 GilbertMax Diameter of T.S. Force Winds
488 Miles
Charley vs Frances Wind Field
Charley2004
Frances 2004
Orange/Purple = Hurricane Wind, Green/Yellow = Tropical Storm
weather.gov/tampabay
2004 Hurricane CharleyLandfall on Friday, August 13
wunderground archive
Fast moving
storm
at 20 mph
2004 Hurricane Charley Makes Landfall
Very Small Eye WallDamage Similar to 20 Mile Wide F2 Tornado
Charley Enters Charlotte HarborNotice the “moat”
Hurricanes vs Mobile Homes
Boca Grande
Captiva
Hardee County
No electricity in county for 9 days
The Power of Flowing Water
Dangers of Flooding from Heavy Rains
A man was killed when his car went into the water covered
hole on Highway 60 near Lake Wales during Charley
Lannis Waters
The Palm Beach Post
Charley Brought Out Different Sides of People
I Was in the Lee County Emergency Operations Center
How About Hurricane Intensity Forecasts?
Over 23 years
No improvement in
first 24 hours
Little improvement
at 48 and 72 hours
Big improvement at
96 and 120 hours
Damage Crossed Florida
Arcadia
Tampa
*
Widespread Panic
Photo Courtesy of Scott Moe
“I never felt so helpless and small in all my life.”David Gaylord St. Petersburg, FL
~1,400 people were in this auditorium
“All we could hear was yelling and screaming as widespread panic set in”
Hurricane Charley Well Inland
Surge and Wind Probabilities
Wind Probabilities Were Not Available in 2014
Chances of hurricane-force winds at Tampa Bay
and Port Charlotte are both around 30%
2004 Hurricane Charley’s Eye Wall was Tiny
7 ft
surge12 mile
wide
eye wall
What if Charley was a Normal Size Storm?
18 ft50 mile
wide
eye wall
New Surge Product
Harnessing the
power of Social
Science and
input from key
partners in the
Media and
Emergency
Management
Experimental Storm Surge Inundation Map
• Available on NHC website at
http://hurricanes.gov
• Created when warning issued, about
48 hours before impact
• 45 to 60 minutes after Advisory issued
• Updated every 6 hours
Storm Surge Maps are in AGL @ High TideExample of 1-in-10 chance of water depth
Not the “worse case” but a realistic worse case based on current storm
On NHC Website at Hurricanes.gov
Fact Sheets
• Public
• Media
• Emergency Management
NWS Tampa Bay Social Media
http://weather.gov/tampabay
@NWSTampaBay
US.NationalWeatherService.TampaBay.gov
http://www.youtube.com/NWSTampa
2014 Forecast Cone has Gone on a Diet Since 2004
Size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical
official forecast errors over the previous 5 years
2014 Forecast Cone
72-Hour Forecast Cone: 2004 vs 2014
2014
Cone
What if Charley Followed Skinny Black Line? Radar Simulation Below
Project PhoenixTampa Bay Regional Planning Council
http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/scenario.shtml
The Role of your local NWS Forecast Office
Analyze all
the various
products and
forecasts
Develop
localized
picture of
timing and
impact
Communicate
uncertainty and
impacts so our
customers can
make informed
decisions