high resolution fossil\industrial co 2 : historical context kevin gurney purdue university...
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High resolution fossil\industrial CO2: Historical Context
Kevin GurneyPurdue University
Department of Earth and Atmospheric SciencePurdue Climate Change Research Center
A52B: Frost & Petron presiding
……..In place of talk by Blasing and colleagues
Posters and talks
9 excellent posters yesterday (A41C-0042 to 0049)
6 talks this morning
Global
Regional: Asia, Europe
Urban: Salt Lake
Methodological: Radon/14C, air quality, energy sales/consumption
This session and the work in recent years heralds a renewed interest in the topic and a broadening
of motivations and methods
History: evolution of estimatesMotivation:
Explain observed CO2 rise
Support climate change projections
Work in the 1980s: Keeling: (1978)
Rotty: global national inventory
Marland:
Global 0-D UN production for years 1950-1982
UN “consumption” @ 5º x 5º for average year
Evolution of estimates continued
5º x 5º with population and industrial concentration
Marland and Rotty, 1984 using consumption
Adding more space & time
Rotty: seasonal global and regional (captured ~87% of globe) Found ptp of 24% of the annual mean.
Andres et al., 1996: moved to 1º x 1º with decadel res time series
EDGAR in the late 1990s - more sectoral/fuel detail
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Other disciplines
Atm chemistry campaigns: Trace-P
Modeling efforts
NOx, CO, VOCs
IPCC: integrated assessment - combining socioeconomics and energy systems analysis (we’ll come back to this)
We thought we were done!
By the 00’s, the carbon cycle community considered the fossil CO2 problem “solved” at least to the extent that was needed.
Focus on “missing sink”, terrestrial net uptake
What have we been using?
1 degree resolution
Sales, consumption at national level with pop for proxy spatial
Why is this no longer adequate?
1. Inversion moving to smaller scales driven, in part, by planned satellite CO2 measurements (OCO)
2. There is likely bias lurking (pop not best proxy)
• California electricity
• Interstates
• Diurnal, seasonal cycles
3. “local” climate policy has emerged in many places: significant need for spatiotemporal information
4. inadequate for dynamic, process understanding
1. Inversions moving to smaller scales driven, in part, by planned satellite CO2 measurements (OCO)
NACP Science Implementation Strategy (Denning, editor), 2005
Fossil emissions are the dominant net source of CO2 in North America….
State- or county-level inventories of fossil fuel emissions must be downscaled using emission models driven by statistics of power and industrial plant usage, locations, pop , weather, vehicular traffic, and other data…..
The goal is to provide daily or subdiurnal gridded emissions estimates commensurate with the <10 km flux analyses
Why is this no longer adequate?
1. Inversions moving to smaller scales driven, in part, by planned satellite CO2 measurements (OCO)
2. There is likely bias lurking (pop not best proxy)
• California electricity
• Interstates
• Diurnal, seasonal cycles
3. “local” climate policy has emerged in many places: significant need for spatiotemporal information
4. inadequate for dynamic, process understanding
2. There is likely bias lurking (pop not best proxy)
• California electricity
• Interstates
• Diurnal, seasonal cycles
Why is this no longer adequate?
1. Inversion moving to smaller scales driven, in part, by planned satellite CO2 measurements (OCO)
2. There is likely bias lurking (pop not best proxy)
• California electricity
• Interstates
• Diurnal, seasonal cycles
3. “local” climate policy has emerged in many places: significant need for spatiotemporal information
4. inadequate for dynamic, process understanding
3. “local” climate policy has emerged in many places: significant need for spatiotemporal information
New approaches?
Our Options: Downscale further?
Better proxies?
Scale with other pollutants?
Energy modeling?
what sources burn when, where and why?????
trains, planes & automobilesPowerplants, factories
Home heat, gas stations
The latest wave
There is now a growing community of researchers tackling various aspects of
high resolution CO2 emissions
• Petron, Frost and colleagues: CEM and mobile emissions
• Gurney, Fischer and colleagues: 10s km and hourly
• Andres, Gregg: state level and monthly
• Hirsch: 14C/Radon
• Pataki: urban
• Blasing, Broniak & Marland: state level/monthly
• Ackerman & Sundquist: point comparisons
1st HRFF meeting
Meeting at Purdue: Spring ‘07
Prioritize
Strategize
Plan proposals, collaborative work
This work can contribute to more than C science
Hestia
Build a global high resolution fossil/industrial CO2 model-data fusion system that is fully process-driven:
Google Earth Emissions
Thank you
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