How fossil fuel CO2 uncertainty impacts estimates of carbon

exchange and variability

Kevin Gurney, Yang Song, Jianhua Huang, Kevin Coltin, Alex Garden

School of Life Sciences/School of Sustainability, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85281, USA

Introduction

A focus on power plant uncertainty: More available data, particularly in US Large proportion of total (~40%)

Examine US and global cases

Examine National inventories - total spread

Descriptive statistical characteristics of spans

Impacts of national span on high resolution fossil fuel CO2 data product (FFDAS) and atmospheric CO2 Inversions

Vulcan

Gurney et al., Env. Sci & Tech, 2009

www.vulcan.project.asu.edu

Hestia See poster 217, Today

FFDAS+

Uncertainty quantification in all of these data products remains challenging

US Power Plants (almost 40% of US FFCO2)

Comparing EPA derived data (CEMs primarily)to

DOE/EIA derived data (fuel consumption-based calculation)

US Power Plants continued

• Examine hourly data where one can isolate the “methods” used.

• CEMs is primary, but there are 6 alternative methods

• Require that every hour of a month be 100% single method

• Aggregate to month for comparison to DOE/EIA

Mean: -1.8%

aka “signed bias”

CEMs

US Power Plants continued

Method/typeAverage IRD

(%)lo/hi quartile

IRD (%) Data (%) CO2 (%)

CEMs -1.8% -5 / +7 25.7% 64.4%

alternative 1 9.4% -21 / +43 0.4% 0.01%

alternative 2 -5.7% -10 / +10 0.6% 0.2%

alternative 3 -11.8% -31 / +10 0.2% 0.06%

alternative 4 9.3% -3 / +66 0.2% 0.2%

alternative 5 -4.3% -10 / +9 61.6% 35.2%

alternative 6 NS NS NS NS

Why?• Are the CEMs measurements biased lo/hi?• Are the Fuel consumption estimates biased hi/lo?

……Stay tuned….

See poster 221, Today

Global Power Plants

Currently the only available global dataset is CARMA. That includes more than 60,000 power plants worldwide.

CARMA provides plant location and estimated CO2 emission for each power plant.

Statistical model based on WEPP & US data

We analyze national publicly disclosed data relative to model prediction to assess accuracy.

Global Power Plants continued

Countrylocation bias

(km)

Total emit signed bias

(%)

Mean emit signed bias

(%)

Mean emit unsigned bias

(%)

USA  ~0 5.9% -8.3% 17%

Canada 67.7 -28% -25% 95%

India 24.3 2.2% 2.7% 19%

S Africa 10.5 -3.1% 0.3% 7.0%

Australia 50.0 NA NA NA

United Kingdom 26.1 10% 2.4% 42%

Germany 6.1 -26% -2.9% 51%

Italy 10.0 37% -7.8% 73%

Netherlands 4.0 -27% -7.8% 52%

Spain 18.3 8.4% 13% 57%

To the extent we want to utilize remote platforms to calibrate or monitor large point sources, these distance biases are unacceptable

Use of power plants as “standalone” data sources in global FFCO2 estimation requires better accuracy

Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emission Inventories

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) UN energy data from annual energy surveys

International Energy Agency (IEA) Annual IEA energy surveys and UN energy data for non-

member nations Sectoral approach (bottom up) vs. Reference approach (top

down)

Energy Information Administration (EIA) EIA’s review of National reports

British Petroleum (BP) BP’s review of National reports

Macknick’s Harmonized Database

Macknick, J. (2011) Energy and CO2 emission data uncertainties. Carbon Manage. 2, 189−205.

Energy SourcesSurvey (IEA, CDIAC) vs National Reports (EIA, BP)

Categories International bunkers, biomass waste, cement production,

gas flare…

ConversionsCalorific valueEmission factors

UnitsCubic meters vs feetShort ton vs tonnesEtc.

World emission unadjusted World emission harmonized(Cement production from CDIAC;

Gas flaring from EIA; no wastes, renewables and land-use emissions)

---harmonized data from Macknick, 2011

Time Mean Percentage span = 7.7%

Time Mean Percentage span = 7.6%

Teragrams of carbon Teragrams of carbon

Year Year

IEA_S 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Algeria -13.06% -8.34% -11.57% -13.78% -14.39% -9.88% -14.17% -13.88% -12.86% -12.78% -11.53% -9.93% -9.78% -11.52% -10.37% -10.22%

Australia -4.18% -5.42% -4.42% -3.16% -4.38% -5.56% -3.02% -1.22% -0.49% 1.75% 1.06% 1.25% 1.53% 0.82% 0.21% 0.79%

Brazil -7.89% -8.76% -8.80% -9.20% -8.85% -8.44% -6.65% -6.46% -5.57% -4.98% -4.95% -5.39% -4.36% -4.53% -4.71% -5.08%

Canada -4.55% -5.23% -2.95% -2.78% -2.29% -2.39% -2.64% -2.20% -2.77% -3.12% -1.78% -3.10% -4.01% -4.42% -5.13% -1.02%

China -2.83% -1.91% -2.95% -1.13% 0.20% -1.62% 2.72% -0.56% -1.55% -1.61% -2.98% -4.01% -4.46% -3.47% -1.97% -1.48%

France -4.87% -6.39% -4.14% -5.27% -5.74% -3.92% -4.46% -3.40% -2.76% -3.42% -4.05% -3.85% -4.41% -3.93% -4.49% -4.49%

Germany -2.88% -2.46% -2.54% -2.66% -1.76% -2.81% -2.72% -1.70% -2.83% -3.33% -2.47% -2.25% -1.54% -2.45% -1.68% -2.42%

India -2.33% -2.61% -2.79% -4.41% -3.28% -2.62% -3.92% -3.10% -3.13% -3.58% -3.13% -3.39% -3.82% -4.41% -3.32% -4.19%

Indonesia -6.94% -6.05% -6.86% -6.93% -5.63% -2.65% 3.55% 1.90% 1.80% 2.13% 0.79% 1.66% 0.23% -0.34% 0.51% -0.73%

Iran -0.37% 0.38% -0.09% -0.06% 0.79% 1.52% -1.24% -0.56% -1.08% -1.76% -2.54% -2.98% -1.66% -3.43% -0.93% -0.13%

Italy -3.21% -2.78% -2.40% -3.51% -2.90% -2.70% -2.86% -2.81% -3.97% -3.49% -2.91% -3.06% -3.17% -2.99% -2.25% -3.68%

Japan -3.68% -3.00% -3.48% -3.19% -3.51% -4.17% -3.89% -2.54% -3.78% -4.17% -2.49% -4.30% -5.12% -4.16% -4.63% -2.72%

Kazakhstan -0.47% -1.23% 0.70% 3.16% -0.14% -2.79% 0.67% -4.46% -6.33% -8.85% -6.57% -3.66% -6.38% -4.72% -2.12% -4.58%

Korea (South) -3.25% -4.61% -3.45% -3.37% -3.26% -4.40% -5.95% -6.21% -4.99% -3.60% -5.59% -6.20% -5.25% -6.05% -5.01% -7.28%

Mexico -4.68% -4.13% -3.80% -3.34% -4.18% -3.69% -2.33% -2.78% -1.49% -2.89% -1.86% -2.94% -3.22% -2.35% -1.26% -1.43%

Poland -2.21% -3.23% -1.63% -1.60% -2.25% -2.48% -2.53% -3.75% -2.26% -1.96% -3.70% -2.84% -2.58% -2.20% -2.63% -2.34%

Russia -2.20% -2.96% -3.58% -0.93% -1.05% -2.18% -1.14% -0.81% 0.29% 0.53% -0.13% -0.68% -1.89% -1.36% -0.82% -0.33%

Saudi Arabia -16.31% -15.77% -14.84% -8.34% -8.70% -7.86% -5.13% -6.22% -11.00% -10.78% -10.04% -10.37% -12.02% -11.89% -10.28% -10.50%

South Africa -16.01% -18.66% -20.76% -17.43% -16.69% -16.37% -13.12% -17.77% -16.72% -19.77% -15.66% -16.05% -17.65% -17.61% -18.90% -18.80%

Spain -4.36% -5.21% -5.21% -4.53% -6.43% -6.63% -6.99% -6.13% -5.34% -5.54% -5.40% -5.07% -5.11% -4.95% -5.08% -4.25%

Taiwan -3.93% -5.39% -5.70% -7.62% -8.12% -8.15% -8.07% -7.23% -7.62% -6.07% -7.43% -7.77% -7.53% -6.72% -6.53% -6.84%

Thailand -7.15% -6.70% -6.36% -5.60% -6.04% -7.35% -8.24% -7.66% -7.08% -7.78% -7.78% -7.02% -7.06% -9.55% -8.87% -8.55%

Turkey -4.23% -5.19% -4.49% -3.45% -3.34% -4.38% -5.15% -4.62% -3.18% -3.63% -2.47% -2.81% -2.78% -5.29% -3.71% -2.82%

Ukraine -3.20% -2.93% -2.29% -4.24% -5.90% -4.07% -5.67% -6.88% -7.92% -6.48% -6.48% -3.93% -6.03% -7.32% -4.46% -4.54%

United Kingdom -4.69% -5.25% -5.19% -6.02% -5.89% -5.79% -5.29% -4.52% -4.79% -4.26% -4.19% -4.16% -4.81% -4.99% -5.42% -4.63%

United States -3.51% -4.04% -4.01% -3.60% -3.39% -2.40% -2.86% -3.58% -3.38% -2.22% -3.75% -3.02% -3.32% -3.53% -3.68% -3.89%

CDIAC 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Algeria -0.96% 2.39% 6.45% 9.56% 14.02% 8.31% 22.22% 28.74% 29.82% 29.73% 30.24% 27.98% 26.33% 34.83% 24.35% 22.49%

Australia 6.51% 6.41% 5.71% 4.49% 6.38% 3.16% 4.18% -3.43% -4.19% -7.59% -6.29% -5.47% -7.07% -5.54% -5.79% -5.92%

Brazil -7.18% -7.45% -6.94% -2.07% -1.28% -1.00% -4.75% -5.41% -4.99% -4.23% -4.79% -5.27% -4.51% -4.55% -5.78% -6.55%

Canada -0.09% 1.51% -4.85% -5.84% -6.82% -7.02% -8.68% -10.42% -3.86% -4.69% -5.69% -4.88% -5.20% -5.61% -5.81% -5.53%

China -0.49% -1.49% -1.54% -0.55% -0.16% -1.71% -4.77% -1.02% 0.47% 0.50% -2.20% -1.96% -3.19% -2.93% -3.61% -3.91%

France 0.79% 2.19% 0.56% 3.38% 2.81% -0.87% 0.21% -6.22% -6.74% -4.14% -4.13% -3.96% -4.05% -3.81% -4.85% -5.39%

Germany 0.12% -0.84% -0.07% -1.16% -0.61% -1.12% -0.80% -4.47% -4.37% -3.84% -4.46% -5.04% -5.24% -5.05% -5.64% -4.76%

India 10.57% 10.48% 11.05% 7.59% 11.76% 11.28% 11.40% 11.92% 11.86% 11.49% 12.20% 13.80% 11.13% 10.81% 10.09% 9.46%

Indonesia 6.78% 7.01% 3.56% -0.59% 0.79% 1.74% -17.85% -14.31% -11.14% -10.08% -9.84% -11.66% -5.51% -7.14% -8.85% -1.56%

Iran 3.04% -4.58% 8.56% 1.64% -0.17% -2.00% 1.85% -3.31% -1.64% -1.70% -4.05% -3.18% -2.10% -5.30% -5.05% -3.57%

Italy 0.98% 0.66% -0.37% -0.85% -1.55% -1.48% -2.06% -3.50% -2.79% -2.81% -3.16% -3.33% -3.22% -3.19% -2.63% -3.92%

Japan 3.30% 2.16% 2.62% 2.86% 3.10% 3.14% 3.48% -0.63% -0.57% -0.42% -0.19% -0.73% 0.30% -0.23% 0.04% -3.59%

Kazakhstan 1.06% -0.35% 5.01% 2.12% -3.84% 1.63% -0.58% -2.87% -3.47% 6.67% 4.50% 0.24% 3.03% 0.96% 0.77% 12.24%

Korea (South) -6.59% -6.96% -6.45% -6.04% -5.58% -6.62% -8.12% -7.49% -6.03% -6.66% -5.88% -6.83% -6.29% -8.81% -9.14% -8.41%

Mexico 19.03% 12.80% 11.18% 12.13% 9.78% 8.13% 3.99% 0.99% -1.98% 0.64% -1.58% -0.92% -0.42% -1.57% -2.75% 0.37%

Poland -1.34% 0.16% -0.24% 1.94% 0.63% -0.28% -0.78% -2.36% -1.06% 1.00% 0.90% 1.03% 0.44% -0.60% -0.18% -0.26%

Russia -0.21% -1.24% -4.70% -4.18% -3.37% -1.12% -3.78% -5.74% -5.99% -5.40% -6.12% -5.74% -6.22% -5.49% -5.43% -5.24%

Saudi Arabia 21.59% 27.59% 21.05% 0.16% 2.52% -13.32% -19.32% -14.74% 1.37% -1.59% 1.21% -3.27% -3.94% -3.61% -3.26% -3.55%

South Africa 7.20% 9.13% 8.50% 3.64% 2.75% 2.00% 2.94% 3.27% 1.42% 1.07% -1.97% -1.77% -0.57% -0.05% -0.59% -0.17%

Spain -2.04% -3.37% -1.77% -0.53% 0.80% -2.97% -3.22% -6.17% -7.29% -7.58% -7.15% -7.70% -6.95% -6.96% -6.68% -7.16%

Taiwan -0.67% -1.68% -2.37% -2.59% -2.75% -2.50% -2.72% -9.13% -11.92% -9.39% -11.12% -11.82% -9.91% -8.94% -8.91% -10.20%

Thailand 10.20% 8.77% 8.26% 7.90% 6.86% 7.52% 6.91% 6.39% 8.71% 10.21% 8.71% 7.79% 7.73% 5.17% 4.82% 4.20%

Turkey -2.85% -0.32% 0.52% 0.32% -0.15% -0.61% -0.31% -1.44% -1.27% -1.99% -2.19% -1.97% -2.68% -1.00% -1.49% -3.12%

Ukraine 3.88% 2.47% 0.92% 3.76% 8.88% -3.52% -3.35% -2.51% -4.73% -4.48% -3.58% -3.00% -2.86% -2.88% -3.91% -5.70%

United Kingdom 0.16% -1.51% -1.12% 0.18% -0.34% -1.02% -0.73% -2.93% -2.71% -2.29% -2.85% -2.92% -2.89% -3.04% -1.27% -3.12%

United States -4.28% -1.64% -1.84% -2.54% -3.46% -3.01% -3.12% -2.96% -2.83% -3.35% -2.75% -3.42% -3.41% -3.17% -3.31% -3.26%

BP 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Algeria 10.60% 6.29% 6.72% 5.95% 6.16% 4.85% 0.98% -2.45% -4.66% -2.77% -3.35% -2.85% -0.82% -4.78% -4.03% -3.11%

Australia 1.64% 1.65% 4.37% 5.26% 3.14% 2.71% 1.32% 1.72% 1.33% 2.86% 3.28% 2.09% 3.80% -0.36% 2.10% 1.13%

Brazil 13.31% 10.89% 10.61% 7.93% 7.17% 7.12% 8.97% 9.39% 8.12% 8.23% 8.02% 7.98% 7.04% 6.08% 6.76% 9.22%

Canada 6.98% 6.06% 8.15% 8.37% 9.48% 9.03% 9.67% 9.57% 7.98% 10.23% 10.25% 10.50% 9.43% 9.93% 11.55% 11.84%

China 7.84% 7.66% 7.34% 7.89% 9.05% 7.63% 4.92% 6.65% 8.60% 9.11% 5.99% 6.23% 3.33% 3.53% 4.26% 4.99%

France 10.90% 9.42% 9.22% 7.93% 7.22% 9.04% 8.39% 11.57% 11.71% 9.06% 8.24% 8.15% 8.92% 7.73% 7.66% 9.48%

Germany 5.35% 5.27% 5.46% 4.87% 5.11% 4.98% 5.29% 6.61% 6.77% 5.80% 6.50% 6.51% 5.96% 6.52% 7.12% 6.24%

India -3.98% -4.86% -5.85% -6.40% -3.42% -4.60% -4.29% -7.37% -5.36% -5.99% -4.41% -4.35% -3.32% -2.91% -4.89% -4.09%

Indonesia 1.55% -1.46% 2.02% 5.41% 1.91% 1.97% 6.34% 5.64% 8.17% 8.90% 8.79% 9.04% 6.39% 8.38% 1.70% -4.06%

Iran 0.09% 1.10% -2.60% 3.52% 6.82% 7.19% 3.04% 4.88% 6.05% 5.85% 8.72% 8.40% 5.98% 10.59% 7.79% 5.05%

Italy 6.16% 4.87% 6.05% 5.36% 5.57% 5.63% 5.48% 7.28% 7.56% 7.69% 7.07% 6.70% 7.56% 7.29% 7.17% 8.22%

Japan 7.38% 7.59% 7.63% 8.21% 8.16% 7.76% 8.12% 8.41% 8.06% 8.68% 7.29% 8.85% 8.23% 9.82% 9.31% 9.50%

Kazakhstan -2.70% -0.27% 3.52% 3.64% 4.42% 6.07% 4.62% -2.58% 2.24% -1.91% -1.98% 3.43% 2.65% 4.53% -0.38% -0.52%

Korea (South) 13.14% 11.87% 12.10% 11.72% 13.79% 16.03% 19.17% 17.19% 16.09% 16.37% 16.53% 18.06% 17.55% 21.26% 21.65% 21.98%

Mexico -8.51% -4.95% -2.96% -3.79% -0.20% -0.08% 0.65% 0.76% 2.49% 1.74% 1.36% 3.29% 3.17% 0.82% 2.05% -0.33%

Poland 3.20% 3.27% 5.73% 5.25% 3.59% 3.67% 4.95% 3.12% 5.29% 6.38% 6.56% 5.34% 5.99% 5.88% 6.03% 7.17%

Russia 5.94% 5.40% 7.82% 6.07% 4.17% 4.23% 4.87% 3.12% 2.28% 3.20% 3.78% 3.40% 3.29% 2.56% 2.19% 3.51%

Saudi Arabia 10.07% 8.40% 13.12% 17.74% 15.98% 21.20% 24.07% 22.33% 16.08% 17.14% 13.50% 15.87% 16.34% 16.76% 17.28% 16.81%

South Africa 6.59% 6.85% 6.71% 9.25% 12.15% 10.82% 10.67% 10.33% 8.97% 9.32% 14.42% 11.29% 9.09% 8.80% 9.03% 9.03%

Spain 6.49% 8.72% 7.01% 7.58% 9.33% 10.37% 11.86% 12.00% 11.36% 11.29% 11.05% 10.31% 9.16% 9.51% 8.95% 9.44%

Taiwan 10.78% 8.71% 9.83% 8.94% 8.00% 9.27% 8.47% 17.30% 16.39% 16.43% 14.83% 16.39% 16.51% 16.66% 16.49% 17.79%

Thailand 4.72% 5.05% 5.48% 5.13% 3.50% 5.26% 7.75% 7.55% 9.33% 6.64% 6.88% 5.06% 4.87% 7.22% 8.10% 7.69%

Turkey 10.10% 11.14% 8.81% 6.82% 7.50% 7.43% 9.08% 9.70% 8.57% 10.78% 8.14% 7.71% 8.28% 9.33% 6.99% 5.77%

Ukraine 3.07% -2.31% -1.62% -7.10% -4.94% 2.28% 2.57% 5.65% 7.21% 7.93% 4.74% -0.41% 3.09% 1.60% 5.25% 2.66%

United Kingdom 6.66% 6.75% 5.95% 6.44% 6.10% 6.64% 6.66% 6.54% 7.08% 6.65% 6.85% 6.88% 7.27% 7.58% 6.98% 7.43%

United States 9.93% 8.99% 9.22% 9.82% 10.29% 9.43% 9.77% 9.91% 9.49% 8.80% 9.08% 9.21% 9.38% 9.20% 9.44% 9.71%

EIA 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Algeria 10.39% 5.12% 6.55% 7.04% 4.79% 3.41% 0.98% -3.16% -4.20% -4.56% -6.45% -8.77% -9.77% -8.47% -4.25% -4.58%

Australia 0.10% 0.30% -1.47% -1.19% -1.65% 3.77% 1.94% 6.12% 5.28% 7.79% 6.12% 6.01% 7.03% 7.43% 6.20% 7.20%

Brazil 4.60% 8.82% 8.61% 8.09% 6.54% 6.53% 4.76% 4.94% 5.34% 4.13% 4.26% 6.18% 4.84% 6.20% 7.91% 6.74%

Canada 4.50% 4.18% 5.17% 5.59% 5.08% 6.23% 5.96% 7.74% 4.07% 3.08% 4.14% 3.86% 6.18% 6.70% 5.03% 1.19%

China -1.25% -1.16% 0.67% -4.21% -6.95% -1.43% -2.23% -4.67% -6.46% -4.25% 1.87% 2.13% 6.67% 5.17% 2.11% 1.73%

France -0.38% -0.28% 1.43% 0.69% 0.79% 3.00% 2.48% 4.22% 4.78% 3.23% 3.77% 3.17% 3.21% 3.67% 6.44% 5.03%

Germany -1.19% -0.25% -1.08% 0.71% -1.55% 0.59% -0.39% 0.30% 1.33% 1.63% 1.32% 2.24% 2.33% 2.39% 2.13% 3.00%

India -3.52% -2.09% -1.41% 5.93% -2.91% -2.40% -0.82% -0.92% -0.40% 0.71% -2.60% -3.97% -2.41% -1.79% -0.16% -0.11%

Indonesia -0.96% 1.56% 2.18% -1.08% 2.82% -1.51% 3.28% 2.98% -0.54% -4.03% -2.21% -2.30% -4.43% -2.49% 3.65% 4.19%

Iran 1.38% 3.23% -3.30% -3.07% -4.69% 1.68% -1.32% 1.84% -2.10% -0.94% 1.26% 0.22% -0.80% 1.43% 0.47% -0.84%

Italy 1.51% 2.41% 1.74% 1.66% 1.31% 0.71% 1.88% 1.52% 1.61% 0.92% 1.59% 2.38% 1.47% 1.49% 1.08% 2.14%

Japan -4.17% -3.87% -4.26% -5.30% -5.24% -3.71% -4.46% -2.87% -1.68% -1.48% -2.14% -0.65% -0.99% -1.70% -1.02% -0.36%

Kazakhstan 2.84% 3.36% -11.01% -13.46% -2.41% -5.75% -7.45% 11.37% 8.29% 7.19% 4.87% -2.82% 0.28% -3.18% -3.70% -10.15%

Korea (South) 3.08% 4.13% 2.24% 1.91% -1.59% -1.83% -0.12% 1.16% -2.14% -2.05% -2.34% -1.25% -2.25% 0.36% -1.85% -0.89%

Mexico -2.58% -1.12% -1.02% -1.01% -1.87% -1.64% -0.32% 0.11% 2.72% 1.32% 0.65% -0.02% -1.50% -0.70% 0.87% -0.02%

Poland -2.25% -0.72% -2.16% -6.55% -1.34% -1.03% -1.03% 4.52% -0.64% -5.23% -4.20% -3.46% -2.10% -2.96% -3.09% -3.82%

Russia -1.33% -0.92% 1.39% 0.57% 0.91% -1.06% 0.70% 3.56% 3.34% 1.34% 2.83% 3.43% 5.67% 4.77% 4.37% 2.90%

Saudi Arabia -3.83% -7.73% -8.62% -5.37% -5.17% 5.18% 2.75% 2.21% 2.08% 3.74% 1.12% 7.45% 11.52% 9.98% 6.47% 7.64%

South Africa 7.75% 3.67% 7.06% 4.11% 3.10% 7.69% 3.05% 6.78% 8.41% 11.87% 9.35% 8.56% 8.23% 8.12% 9.08% 8.40%

Spain 2.82% 3.63% 1.78% -0.12% -0.05% 2.90% 2.72% 4.34% 5.73% 6.30% 6.26% 6.57% 6.76% 6.77% 7.02% 5.96%

Taiwan -3.81% 0.23% 1.47% 6.22% 8.67% 7.21% 7.62% 4.04% 7.72% 3.12% 7.81% 8.20% 3.54% 2.98% 3.04% 3.54%

Thailand -2.77% -2.13% -2.06% -3.15% 0.17% 0.19% -0.02% -0.33% -5.72% -5.35% -4.15% -2.61% -2.05% 1.36% -0.95% -0.18%

Turkey -1.59% -2.31% -3.39% -2.88% -2.94% -1.41% -1.90% -2.02% -2.24% -2.36% -1.02% -0.70% -1.01% 0.94% 0.85% 2.71%

Ukraine -7.30% -1.01% -0.74% 3.12% 0.97% 1.76% 3.10% 1.27% 2.79% 0.29% 1.88% 3.88% 3.83% 7.21% 2.92% 8.93%

United Kingdom 0.05% 2.54% 1.92% 0.96% 2.50% 3.01% 1.91% 2.38% 1.22% 1.78% 2.88% 2.67% 3.78% 3.77% 3.45% 3.09%

United States 0.60% -0.44% -0.47% -0.11% 0.32% -0.57% -0.26% -0.32% -0.27% -0.63% -0.43% -0.13% -0.07% -0.16% -0.12% -0.05%

Implications – atmospheric CO2 inversion

Run “hi” and “lo” through TransCom 3 Level 2 inversions• Scales the global fossil total• No change in spatial pattern

RESULTS:

Total Land Uptake for the decade of the 1990’s “hi”………………………… -1.3 GtC/year “lo”………………………… -0.89 GtC/yearTotal Land Uptake for the decade of the 2000’s “hi”……………………….. -2.3 GtC/year “lo”……………………….. -1.8 GtC/year

High resolution inversion underway – implications will be more significant for some global regions.

= “hi” = “lo” = error range

-200% 200%0%

Impact on FFDAS

Span as prior uncertainty (diagonal cov matrix only)

Conclusions Exploration of fossil fuel uncertainty remains challenging

The single largest contributor and sector previously considered the best known – power plant emissions: US: potentially large error at facility level. Source of bias being

investigated. I think we can solve. CARMA database: requires revision. Underway - VENTUS

Discrepancies among national FFCO2 inventories varies through time and by country, even after “harmonization”

The median percentage span averaged over countries and time is around 12.5% (mean = 15%)

Impact of the span on fossil fuel CO2 on the inversion results is large: difference exceeds the current “within” inversion error.

Use of this as national uncertainty has significant impact on the FFDAS result

ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS WILL HELP (OF COURSE), BUT IT ISN’T ENOUGH – THE DATA PRODUCTS MUST IMPROVE

Time mean Percentage Span (%)