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Globalization and the labour market
in the future
Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d.
Futurist
Centre for Future Studieswww.fremforsk.dk/en
Cities in the future
The interweaved city – a
mixture of functions
The company without office
space
The new nomads travelling
from oasis to oasis
The work day and leisure
day as a long fractal route
The world population:
Changing shape
Moore than 7 billion
people
Birthrates in Europe
European Population Growth
The Silver Tsunami
Source: Danmarks Statistik, 2013
Demographic developmentDenmark 2013-2023
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100 +
Demographic developmentDenmark 2013-2023
Source: Danmarks Statistik, 2014
2013 2023 Ændring
0-9 643670 617716 -25954
10-19 692950 655148 -37802
20-29 681165 755726 74561
30-39 700144 695547 -4597
40-49 815577 698074 -117503
50-59 727494 790977 63483
60-69 693653 679367 -14286
70-79 415050 585217 170167
80-89 192270 254169 61899
90 + 40468 48402 7934
I alt 5602441 5780343 177902
Consumers get richer all the time
Source: Danmarks Statistik
Denmark 2,6 % growth
Index volume
World GDP forecast 2014
(IMF)
Globalization, speed and
strategy
A global world – and a mix of cultures, management styles and goals
Faster changes – the only constant is change
Higher amplitude – higher peeks and bottoms
Difficult to make strategic planning Planning in trouble – goals shift faster than projects
A chaotic world – how to thrive with chaos
From planning to muddling through More important to understand strategy and goals of the
company as a manager or project manager
You have to be good at changing directions constantly
Level of education
The danish workforce2013
1140481
4976092589
1255430
102186
163472
508110
51742
50459
299381
47197
30687
25117
18825
173551
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
All 30-34 years 30-34 years in
year 2000
UOPLYST UDDANNELSE
LANGE VIDEREGÅENDEUDDANNELSER
BACHELOR
MELLEMLANGE VIDEREGÅENDEUDDANNELSER
KORTE VIDEREGÅENDEUDDANNELSER
ERHVERVSFAGLIGEUDDANNELSER
ERHVERVSGYMNASIALEUDDANNELSER
ALMENGYMNASIALEUDDANNELSER
GRUNDSKOLE 8. - 10. klasse
Tertiary education (OECD):
Denmark 40% 25-34 årige
USA 40%, Norway 48%,
Sweden 43%, Finland 39%
Japan 58%, South Korea
65%, Russia 57%, Irland
50%%
(2013 OECD tal)
India’s high-tech centre
Globalization
A global labour market, transnational competition
and possibilities
Companies outsourcing of both unskilled, skilled
and presently highly skilled jobs and functions to
European countries, China, India and Vietnam.
Digital means of communication and problem-
solving – the world is my backyard
A growing need for transnational regulation of
minimum wage, conditions of work (working hours,
maternal leave etc.)
Globalization 2.0
Outsourcing knowledge, work and workers
Specialized engineers, researchers, scientists,
mathematicians and financial wiz kids
Creativity
White collar sweat shops
Digital retouch in Dacca
Why? – Cheaper and closer to the markets
We have to survive and thrive by the skills and
technologies, where we have the upper hand and
posses the best knowledge of the market
The New Phases of Life
0 20 40 60 80
0 20 40 60
2000
1960
2030
Childhood
Teenager
Parents/
family
Elder
Freedom 1 Senior
Freedom 2
Modern Danish work life
after the crisis
We live in a wealthy part of the world
Work is no longer just a question of paying next months rent
At the moment there is a temporary reluctance to ask for great salary increases and other benefits
But it won’t last the next 3 or 10 years
Modern work life is about personal identity and a meaningful way of living
Competing with family, shopping and holidays
Types of regulations of
the labour market
Collective agreements
Contract between Labor
and management
Unions and employers
associations governing
wages and benefits and
working conditions
Originally the dominant
model in Nordic countries
(special case: Sweden)
National and EU
regulation
Very close to the German
and French way
Laws that regulates
minimum wage, benefits
and working conditions
Obligations for employer
and employee
The status today
A mixture of the two systems
From 1993 and the Maastricht Treaty Trade
Unions were mentioned as important regulators
of the national labour markets
The free movement of workers, rights to look
for a job, to work, to reside and remain in
another Member State
Entitlement to a huge range of social services
and benefits (social security, pension,
unemployment benefits)
Loosing a job
The flexible labour
market
Half of all jobs that existed 10 years ago do not exist
anymore
New jobs have been created replacing that half – slower
during economic downturns – faster growth in boom
times
Approx. 30% of the workforce changes jobs during a
year
The labour market is a very flexible market
Our children will change jobs more often than us and
change directions and industry more than once during
their worklive
Why do jobs
disappear?
Digitalization and automation:
Proofreading, shorthand, telephone switchboard,
travel handling, NemID, Controlling
Disruptive technologies
New production tecnology
Offshoring jobs:
Digital pixilation, bookkeeping, booking bureau
airlines, administration
Reception and welcome staff, Offices, Personal
secretary, more informal organizations
Disruptive technology
The digital revolution
version 3.0
• We are in the middle of a real digital revolution
that changes the way we work, produce and
communicate in a new digital society
• Digital structure and software has become a
basic part of peoples lives and public and
privates companies
• A essential infrastructure in company and life
like water and electricity.
• Your chances of succeeding very much
depends on your digital capacity
Time to marked and
innovations
Speeding up the R&D Process But how fast can we get?
Parallel processing – Case: ZARA 3-4 weeks from spotting trends to products hitting
shop shelves
Getting on the customers desk, PC, smartphone or body
Integrating end user behavior in the product
Getting access to users and customers mindsets
Six Generations
Baby BoomersBorn 1940-54
Post war generation –
educational boom
Reinventing every phase of life
Rock, beat, soul
Tech: The pill
Generation Jones
Recently discovered
Large generation
Design, ethics, idea
Against divorce, pro family – tech: Stereo set
Born 1955-67
Generation X
The so-what generation
Small after the pill
Selfcenteret, extrovert
Personal succes, Video, workaholics, love brands
Born 1968-79
Generation Y
The smallest gen.
Fun shoppers, great social skills, Myself inc., situational consumption managing many choices
1980-89, PC, cell-phone
Generation Z
Between war gen.,
Project & trophy kids
Be famous, groups based
Digital natives
Born 1990-2001
New Millenium
After 9-11 generation
Cultural homogenization
EU as native soil
Wi–Fi (Wireless internet)
Født 2001 -
Babyboomers
born 1940-54
The huge post war generation
This generation is much better educated and has much
moore money /wealth than their parents
Digital immigrant – the technologies that they are
familar with is the pill, the television and the telephone
The first generation of grasshoppers - eat all of it, and
leave nothing behind you.
Worklife – They like collective system that ensure that
everybody is treated the same way or better as a senior
In the workplace
Recognition
Born 1955-67
More conscious and cynical consumers and employees
Design, ethics, idea
Against divorce, like family values, society is important
Interrail-generation
A new beginning at 40, 50 and 60 – reinventing yourself
Status, position and money
A successful life is family, career and
leisure – all together – a balanced life
Generations X
born 1965-1977
The first generation after the pill
The individual way- self-centered generation
Brand enthusiasts
As costumers Generation Jones and generation X Are
Cynical and very focused on price and value
Some are real digital shoppers, others still prefer the
physical shop
Workaholics – personal success and status
Results and salary
Flexibility
Generation Y & Z and the
future Work Place
Generation Y ( 1978-89)
and Z (digital natives)
(1990-2001)The first online and Google it! ..Information, shopping,
chatting, uploads of pics and videos
The digital natives can´t imagine a life without a cell-phone
and a laptop
Fun shoppers and friends, travelling, party and work
Without the cell-phone ” I feel Naked”
Personal recognition for what I say or do
Social networking is a must in life. www.facebook.com,
www.Twitters.com, www.myspace.com, www.Youtube.com
Personal style over Brands – Better to create your own
products, music, way of doing things that just receiving
Future job and
future employers!
What can this job offer me? WIIFM
Near future possibilities to meet different people,
leaders, job functions and workplaces on a
regular basis?
Comprehension and willingness to understand
the things I care for ! Children, cats, music
festivals, yoga
Leaders that can motivate me – be my guiding
star and forgive my sins
Future job and future
employers!
A job that is meaningful to me and my family and
friends
A fair and just salary – still young
A flexible workplace
A good title – English please (Cheese Manager)
My work will shape my personality and identity
Recognize me, see me and praise me all day long
NOT too much work, please! - I also need time for
friends, free me time and others interests (sports,
shopping, parties and pets.)
If you want loyalty - go
buy a dog (A student, London College of Fashion)
Human Ressource
development in the future
Different nationalities and generations and
thereby labour market values.
Different values and religions, protestants,
atheists, Catholics, Muslims, Hindus
Different social conditions and family relations
The primary focus should be on every single
individual with his or her personality and
cultural and professional qualities and
qualifications
Jesper Bo Jensen
Fremforsk
- Centre for Future Studies
Kannikegade 18
8000 Aarhus C
E jbj@fremforsk.dk
T +45 86 11 47 44
M +45 20 67 45 00
www.fremforsk.dk/en
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