Globalization and the labour market

in the future

Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d.

Futurist

Centre for Future Studieswww.fremforsk.dk/en

Cities in the future

The interweaved city – a

mixture of functions

The company without office

space

The new nomads travelling

from oasis to oasis

The work day and leisure

day as a long fractal route

The world population:

Changing shape

Moore than 7 billion

people

Birthrates in Europe

European Population Growth

The Silver Tsunami

Source: Danmarks Statistik, 2013

Demographic developmentDenmark 2013-2023

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100 +

Demographic developmentDenmark 2013-2023

Source: Danmarks Statistik, 2014

2013 2023 Ændring

0-9 643670 617716 -25954

10-19 692950 655148 -37802

20-29 681165 755726 74561

30-39 700144 695547 -4597

40-49 815577 698074 -117503

50-59 727494 790977 63483

60-69 693653 679367 -14286

70-79 415050 585217 170167

80-89 192270 254169 61899

90 + 40468 48402 7934

I alt 5602441 5780343 177902

Consumers get richer all the time

Source: Danmarks Statistik

Denmark 2,6 % growth

Index volume

World GDP forecast 2014

(IMF)

Globalization, speed and

strategy

A global world – and a mix of cultures, management styles and goals

Faster changes – the only constant is change

Higher amplitude – higher peeks and bottoms

Difficult to make strategic planning Planning in trouble – goals shift faster than projects

A chaotic world – how to thrive with chaos

From planning to muddling through More important to understand strategy and goals of the

company as a manager or project manager

You have to be good at changing directions constantly

Level of education

The danish workforce2013

1140481

4976092589

1255430

102186

163472

508110

51742

50459

299381

47197

30687

25117

18825

173551

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All 30-34 years 30-34 years in

year 2000

UOPLYST UDDANNELSE

LANGE VIDEREGÅENDEUDDANNELSER

BACHELOR

MELLEMLANGE VIDEREGÅENDEUDDANNELSER

KORTE VIDEREGÅENDEUDDANNELSER

ERHVERVSFAGLIGEUDDANNELSER

ERHVERVSGYMNASIALEUDDANNELSER

ALMENGYMNASIALEUDDANNELSER

GRUNDSKOLE 8. - 10. klasse

Tertiary education (OECD):

Denmark 40% 25-34 årige

USA 40%, Norway 48%,

Sweden 43%, Finland 39%

Japan 58%, South Korea

65%, Russia 57%, Irland

50%%

(2013 OECD tal)

India’s high-tech centre

Globalization

A global labour market, transnational competition

and possibilities

Companies outsourcing of both unskilled, skilled

and presently highly skilled jobs and functions to

European countries, China, India and Vietnam.

Digital means of communication and problem-

solving – the world is my backyard

A growing need for transnational regulation of

minimum wage, conditions of work (working hours,

maternal leave etc.)

Globalization 2.0

Outsourcing knowledge, work and workers

Specialized engineers, researchers, scientists,

mathematicians and financial wiz kids

Creativity

White collar sweat shops

Digital retouch in Dacca

Why? – Cheaper and closer to the markets

We have to survive and thrive by the skills and

technologies, where we have the upper hand and

posses the best knowledge of the market

The New Phases of Life

0 20 40 60 80

0 20 40 60

2000

1960

2030

Childhood

Teenager

Parents/

family

Elder

Freedom 1 Senior

Freedom 2

Modern Danish work life

after the crisis

We live in a wealthy part of the world

Work is no longer just a question of paying next months rent

At the moment there is a temporary reluctance to ask for great salary increases and other benefits

But it won’t last the next 3 or 10 years

Modern work life is about personal identity and a meaningful way of living

Competing with family, shopping and holidays

Types of regulations of

the labour market

Collective agreements

Contract between Labor

and management

Unions and employers

associations governing

wages and benefits and

working conditions

Originally the dominant

model in Nordic countries

(special case: Sweden)

National and EU

regulation

Very close to the German

and French way

Laws that regulates

minimum wage, benefits

and working conditions

Obligations for employer

and employee

The status today

A mixture of the two systems

From 1993 and the Maastricht Treaty Trade

Unions were mentioned as important regulators

of the national labour markets

The free movement of workers, rights to look

for a job, to work, to reside and remain in

another Member State

Entitlement to a huge range of social services

and benefits (social security, pension,

unemployment benefits)

Loosing a job

The flexible labour

market

Half of all jobs that existed 10 years ago do not exist

anymore

New jobs have been created replacing that half – slower

during economic downturns – faster growth in boom

times

Approx. 30% of the workforce changes jobs during a

year

The labour market is a very flexible market

Our children will change jobs more often than us and

change directions and industry more than once during

their worklive

Why do jobs

disappear?

Digitalization and automation:

Proofreading, shorthand, telephone switchboard,

travel handling, NemID, Controlling

Disruptive technologies

New production tecnology

Offshoring jobs:

Digital pixilation, bookkeeping, booking bureau

airlines, administration

Reception and welcome staff, Offices, Personal

secretary, more informal organizations

Disruptive technology

The digital revolution

version 3.0

• We are in the middle of a real digital revolution

that changes the way we work, produce and

communicate in a new digital society

• Digital structure and software has become a

basic part of peoples lives and public and

privates companies

• A essential infrastructure in company and life

like water and electricity.

• Your chances of succeeding very much

depends on your digital capacity

Time to marked and

innovations

Speeding up the R&D Process But how fast can we get?

Parallel processing – Case: ZARA 3-4 weeks from spotting trends to products hitting

shop shelves

Getting on the customers desk, PC, smartphone or body

Integrating end user behavior in the product

Getting access to users and customers mindsets

Six Generations

Baby BoomersBorn 1940-54

Post war generation –

educational boom

Reinventing every phase of life

Rock, beat, soul

Tech: The pill

Generation Jones

Recently discovered

Large generation

Design, ethics, idea

Against divorce, pro family – tech: Stereo set

Born 1955-67

Generation X

The so-what generation

Small after the pill

Selfcenteret, extrovert

Personal succes, Video, workaholics, love brands

Born 1968-79

Generation Y

The smallest gen.

Fun shoppers, great social skills, Myself inc., situational consumption managing many choices

1980-89, PC, cell-phone

Generation Z

Between war gen.,

Project & trophy kids

Be famous, groups based

Digital natives

Born 1990-2001

New Millenium

After 9-11 generation

Cultural homogenization

EU as native soil

Wi–Fi (Wireless internet)

Født 2001 -

Babyboomers

born 1940-54

The huge post war generation

This generation is much better educated and has much

moore money /wealth than their parents

Digital immigrant – the technologies that they are

familar with is the pill, the television and the telephone

The first generation of grasshoppers - eat all of it, and

leave nothing behind you.

Worklife – They like collective system that ensure that

everybody is treated the same way or better as a senior

In the workplace

Recognition

Born 1955-67

More conscious and cynical consumers and employees

Design, ethics, idea

Against divorce, like family values, society is important

Interrail-generation

A new beginning at 40, 50 and 60 – reinventing yourself

Status, position and money

A successful life is family, career and

leisure – all together – a balanced life

Generations X

born 1965-1977

The first generation after the pill

The individual way- self-centered generation

Brand enthusiasts

As costumers Generation Jones and generation X Are

Cynical and very focused on price and value

Some are real digital shoppers, others still prefer the

physical shop

Workaholics – personal success and status

Results and salary

Flexibility

Generation Y & Z and the

future Work Place

Generation Y ( 1978-89)

and Z (digital natives)

(1990-2001)The first online and Google it! ..Information, shopping,

chatting, uploads of pics and videos

The digital natives can´t imagine a life without a cell-phone

and a laptop

Fun shoppers and friends, travelling, party and work

Without the cell-phone ” I feel Naked”

Personal recognition for what I say or do

Social networking is a must in life. www.facebook.com,

www.Twitters.com, www.myspace.com, www.Youtube.com

Personal style over Brands – Better to create your own

products, music, way of doing things that just receiving

Future job and

future employers!

What can this job offer me? WIIFM

Near future possibilities to meet different people,

leaders, job functions and workplaces on a

regular basis?

Comprehension and willingness to understand

the things I care for ! Children, cats, music

festivals, yoga

Leaders that can motivate me – be my guiding

star and forgive my sins

Future job and future

employers!

A job that is meaningful to me and my family and

friends

A fair and just salary – still young

A flexible workplace

A good title – English please (Cheese Manager)

My work will shape my personality and identity

Recognize me, see me and praise me all day long

NOT too much work, please! - I also need time for

friends, free me time and others interests (sports,

shopping, parties and pets.)

If you want loyalty - go

buy a dog (A student, London College of Fashion)

Human Ressource

development in the future

Different nationalities and generations and

thereby labour market values.

Different values and religions, protestants,

atheists, Catholics, Muslims, Hindus

Different social conditions and family relations

The primary focus should be on every single

individual with his or her personality and

cultural and professional qualities and

qualifications

Jesper Bo Jensen

Fremforsk

- Centre for Future Studies

Kannikegade 18

8000 Aarhus C

E jbj@fremforsk.dk

T +45 86 11 47 44

M +45 20 67 45 00

www.fremforsk.dk/en