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Global Warming and

Tropical Cyclone Activity

in the western North Pacific/

Thermodynamic Controls on

Intense TCs

Johnny Chan

Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre

City University of Hong Kong

Outline

• Part I - Actual observations and possible explanations of the variations of the following WNP TC characteristics

– numbers and intensity

– tracks and landfall locations

• Part I Summary

• Part II – relationship between MPI and frequency of occurrence of intense TCs

Part I

Actual observations and explanations

– Number and Intensity

Annual Number of TCs and intense TCs in WNPAnnual number of TSs and Cat45 TCs over the WNP

15

20

25

30

35

40

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

TS

10-yr filtered TS

Cat45

10-yr filtered Cat45

Webster et al.’s (2005) Science paper

1975-89 1990-2004

Number 75 115

Percentage 32 42

No. of Category 4 and 5 Typhoons

1960-74 1975-89 1990-2004

Number 105 75 115

Percentage 37 32 42

No. of Category 4 and 5 Typhoons

ACE vs.. VORT, SHEAR and MSE

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

ACE

VORT EOF1

SHEAR EOF1

MSE EOF2

0.580.72

0.67

Science, 311, 1713b, Tellus 2007

Wavelet Analysis of Intense Typhoon Occurrence Frequency

2-7 yr

16-32 yr

Period A1 Period B Period A2

Sea-surface

Temperature

Anomalies

Period A1

Period B

Period A2

Reconstructed

Moist Static

Energy (EOF2)

Period A1 Period A2

Period B

Vertical Gradient of

Saturated Moist

Static Energy

(1000 minus 600 hPa)

Period A1 Period A2

Period B

Precipitation Rate

Anomalies

Period A1 Period A2

Period B

Lower Tropospheric

Streamfunction

Anomalies

Period A1 Period A2

Period B

200-hPa minus 850-hPa Zonal Wind Shear

Period A1 minus Period B Period A2 minus Period B

Frequency of

Occurrence of

Intense Typhoons

Period A1 Period A2

Period B

Blue shading: 95% Green shading: 90%

Period A1 minus Period B Period A2 minus Period B

Difference in the Frequency of Occurrence

of Intense TyphoonsProceedings, Royal Society A (2008)

Actual observations and explanations

– Track and Landfall Variations

Number of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in

Japan and Korea Every 5-year period (1970-2004)

No. of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in Japan and Korea

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04

Year

Nu

mb

er

Number of Typhoons Making Landfall in Zhejiang

Province of China (East China) Every 5-year period

(1960-2005)

Number of Typhoons Making Landfall in

Guangdong/Hainan (South China)

Every 5-year period (1960-2005)

Variations of Landfall in Each Area at Various Oscillation PeriodsSTC

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Standa

rdized

anoma

lies

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Standardized anomalies

original

2-8 yr

8-16 yr

16-32 yr

sta

nd

ard

ize

d a

no

ma

lie

ss

tan

da

rdiz

ed

an

om

alie

s

MTC

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Stand

ardize

d ano

malies

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Standardized anomalies

original

2-8 yr

8-16 yr

16-32 yr

sta

nd

ard

ize

d a

no

ma

lies

sta

nd

ard

ize

d a

no

ma

lies

sta

nd

ard

ize

d a

no

ma

lie

ss

tan

da

rdiz

ed

an

om

ali

es

South China, Philippines and

Vietnam

East China

Japan/Korea

EO

Fs o

f T

C o

ccu

rren

ce a

no

mali

es

TC

occu

rren

ce a

no

malie

s1977-88

1964-76

1989-97

EOF1

EOF2

EOF3

Summary

• No significant trend in any of the TC

characteristics (number, intensity,

track types, landfall locations) can be

identified. In other words, TC activity

in the western North Pacific does not

follow the trend in the global increase

in atmospheric or sea-surface

temperature.

• Instead, all such characteristics go

through large interannual and

interdecadal variations.

Summary

• Such variations are very much related

and apparently caused by similar

variations in the planetary-scale

atmospheric and oceanographic features

that also do not have the same trend as

the global increase in air temperature

• Unless the temporal variations of such

features become linear, these TC

characteristics are not expected to vary

linearly with time.

Summary

• Even if the observed global warming

has an effect, it is probably in the

noise level relative to the large

interdecadal variations and therefore

is not detectable.

Part II

Background

•MPI = f(SST, outflow temperature, net

tropospheric CAPE)

•Because MPI gives the maximum possible

intensity, a higher value of MPI summed

over the ocean basin and over a season

should imply a more thermodynamically

energetic atmosphere, and more TCs could

reach higher intensities

a season with a higher value of MPI

should have more intense TCs if the

dominant control is thermodynamic

Identify the extent to which the

frequency of occurrence of intense

TCs is controlled by thermodynamic

(versus dynamic) factors by

examining the relationship between

MPI and such a frequency

Objective

Track data

1. Operational datasets

•HURDAT for Atlantic and eastern

North Pacific TCs

•JTWC for the rest

2. Homogeneous dataset from

Kossin et al. (2007)

Data for calculating MPI

NCEP reanalyses

Data

Correlations with MPI

Ocean Basin Period Correlation

(best track)

Correlation

(Kossin et al. 2007)

Atlantic 1960-2007 0.45

1970-2007 0.59

1980-2007 0.63

1979-2006 0.61 0.61

Western North Pacific 1960-2007 -0.01

1970-2007 -0.06

1980-2007 -0.08

1981-2006 -0.13 -0.36

Eastern North Pacific 1960-2007 0.29

1970-2007 0.35

1980-2007 0.34

South Indian Ocean 1981-2007 0.35

South Pacific 1981-2007 0.03

21-year running correlations with NCat45 - Atlantic

21-year running correlations of MPI with NCat45

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Atlantic WNP ENP

21-year running correlations with NCat45

21-year running correlations with Atlantic NCat45

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

MPI CAPE T0 SST

21-year running correlations with NCat45 - Atlantic

21-year running correlations with ENP NCat45

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

MPI CAPE T0 SST

21-year running correlations with NCat45 - ENP

21-year running correlations with WNP NCat45

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

MPI CAPE T0 SST

21-year running correlations with NCat45 - WNP

Summary

• Thermodynamic control on the

frequency of intense TCs is

important only in the Atlantic

• Estimating the effect of global

warming on the frequency of intense

TCs therefore must also assess

such an effect on the dynamic

processes.