global economic conditions - dallasfed.org · 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009...

Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

GLOBAL ECONOMIC

CONDITIONSUpdated November 2019

Table of Contents1. Indicators of Real Activity

Chart 1. Global GDP Growth

Chart 2. OECD Industrial Production

Chart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index

Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced Economies

Chart 5. Unemployment in OECD Economies

Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise Trade

Chart 8. Baltic Dry Index

2. Inflation Indicators

Chart 9. Commodity Prices

Chart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI)

Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI)

Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies (Headline CPI)

Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies (Headline CPI)

3. Money and Capital Markets

Chart 14. Money Market Spreads

Chart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yields in Major Advanced

Economies

Chart 16. Stock Market Indexes in Major Advanced Economies

Chart 17. Stock Market Indexes in Major Emerging Economies

4. Public Finances

Chart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major

Advanced Economies

Chart 19. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major

Emerging Economies

Chart 20. General Government Gross Debt in Major Advanced

Economies

Chart 21. General Government Gross Debt in Major Emerging

Economies

5. Monetary Policy

Chart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Advanced Economies

Chart 23. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Emerging Economies

Chart 24. Money Supply Growth in Major Advanced Economies

Chart 25. Money Supply Growth in Major Emerging Economies

6. U.S. External Accounts

Chart 26. U.S. Terms of Trade

Chart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs Value

Chart 28. U.S. Current Account Balance

Chart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. Dollar

Chart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar

7. Current Analysis

Chart 31. Global Current Account Balances

Chart 32. Bond Spreads for Select Euro Area Economies

Chart 33. Select Economies’ Banking Exposure to Peripheral Euro-Area

Sovereign Debt

Chart 34. Sovereign Debt Repayment Schedule for Select Euro-Area

Economies

Indicators of Real Activity

Sources: National Statistical Offices, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Chart 1. Global GDP Growth

World (2019 Q2 = 3.1)

Advanced Economies (ex. U.S.) (2019 Q2 = 1.2)

Emerging Economies (2019 Q2 = 4.4)

U.S. (2019 Q2 = 2.3)

Percent, Year/Year

NOTE: The advanced economies (ex. U.S.) aggregate includes the Euro Area, Japan, the U.K., Canada, Australia, South Korea, Switzerland and Sweden. The emerging economies aggregate includes China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, South Africa

and Colombia. The world aggregate includes these countries, which make up approximately 80 percent of world GDP computed using purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP weights.

Sources: OECD; Haver Analytics

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Index, 2005 = 100

Chart 2. OECD Industrial Production

NOTE: Countries included in the industrial production index are all members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,

Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States).

Last Observation: Jul = 113.2

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: JPMorgan; Bloomberg

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Chart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index

Manufacturing (Sep = 49.7)

Services (Sep = 51.6)

Composite (Sep = 51.2)

NOTE: This index measures purchasing managers' perspectives of current business conditions. An index value greater than 50 indicates economic expansion from the previous month, while a value below 50 indicates contraction.

Sources: National Statistical Offices, EUROSTAT; Haver Analytics

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Percent

U.S. (Sep = 3.5)

Euro Area (Aug = 7.4)

Japan (Aug = 2.2)

U.K. (Jun = 3.8)

Canada (Aug = 5.7)

Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced Economies

NOTE: The chart plots harmonized unemployment data for the U.K.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Percent

Chart 5. Unemployment in OECD Economies

Last Observation: Aug = 5.1

Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Index, 2000 = 100

NOTE: This series includes data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and covers approximately 97 percent of total world trade. Trade volume is calculated as the arithmetic average of world export volumes and world import volumes.

Last Observation: Jul = 185.5

Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

World (Aug = 185.3)

Advanced Economies (Aug = 149.7)

Emerging Economies (Aug = 282.8)

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

World (Aug = 185.8)

Advanced Economies (Aug = 154.6)

Emerging Economies (Aug = 249.5)

Index, 2000 = 100

NOTE: Import and export series include data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and cover approximately 97 percent of total world trade.

Imports Exports

Sources: Baltic Exchange; Bloomberg

10,000

12,000

14,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Chart 8. Baltic Dry Index

Index, 01/04/1985 = 1,000

NOTE: The Baltic Dry Index is a maritime shipping index that measures charter rates for shipping dry bulk commodities such as coal,grain and iron ore.

Last Observation: Nov 05 = 1656

Inflation Indicators

Sources: Goldman Sachs; Haver Analytics

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Chart 9. Commodity Prices

Precious Metals (Oct 07 = 221.3)Agriculture and Livestock (Oct 07 = 106.6)Energy (Oct 07 = 87.3)Industrial Metals (Oct 07 = 73.8)

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Percent, Year/Year

Chart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI)

Headline Inflation (Aug = 1.9)Core Inflation (Aug = 2.3)

NOTE: The headline consumer price index (CPI) is the broadest measure of price changes consumers face in their day-to-day living expenses. The core CPI excludes energy and food prices.

Sources: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Percent, Year/Year

Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI)

World (Dec = 4.9)

Advanced Economies (Dec = 1.6)

Emerging Economies (Dec = 6.9)

Sources: National Statistical Offices, European Central Bank; Haver Analytics

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies

(Headline CPI)

U.S. (Aug = 1.8)

Euro Area (Sep = 0.9)

Japan (Aug = 0.2)

U.K. (Aug = 1.7)

Canada (Aug = 1.9)

Percent, Year/Year

Sources: National Statistical Offices; Haver Analytics

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Percent, Year/Year

Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies

(Headline CPI)

Brazil (Aug = 3.3)Russia (Sep = 3.9)India (Aug = 6.3)Indonesia (Sep = 3.4)China (Aug = 2.8)South Africa (Aug = 4.4)

Money and Capital Markets

Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Chart 14. Money Market Spreads

U.S. Dollar (Oct 07 = 36.2)

Euro (Oct 07 = 4.6)

Japanese Yen (Oct 07 = 1.3)

U.K. Pound Sterling (Oct 07 = 10.1)

Basis Points

NOTE: The chart plots the spread, or difference, between 3-month interbank offered rates (Libor for the dollar, yen and pound sterling; Euribor for the euro) and the overnight index swap rate for each currency.

Sources: Financial Times, Reuters, Bank of Canada; Haver Analytics

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Chart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yields

in Major Advanced Economies

U.S. (Oct 07 = 1.5)

Euro Area (Oct 07 = -0.6)

Japan (Oct 07 = -0.3)

U.K. (Oct 07 = 0.3)

Canada (Oct 07 = 1.3)

Percent

Sources: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal; Haver Analytics

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Chart 16. Stock Market Indexes

U.S. (Oct 07 = 213)Euro Area (Oct 07 = 84)Japan (Oct 08 = 125)U.K. (Oct 07 = 116)Canada (Oct 07 = 132)

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100

NOTE: Stock market indexes are the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for the U.S, the EURO STOXX 50 Price Index for the Euro Area, the Nikkei 225 Average Index for Japan, the FTSE 100 Index for the U.K. and the S&P/TSX Composite Index for Canada.

Sources: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal; Haver Analytics

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Chart 17. Stock Market Indexes

in Major Emerging EconomiesBrazil (Oct 07 = 239) Russia (Oct 07 = 73)

India (Oct 07 = 277) Indonesia (Oct 08 = 339)

China (Oct 08 = 102) South Africa (Oct 07 = 218)

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100

NOTE: Stock market indexes are the Bovespa Index for Brazil, the RTS Index for Russia, the Bombay SENSEX for India, the Jakarta Composite for Indonesia, the New Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index for China and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Top 40

Index for South Africa.

Public Finances

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Chart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

U.S. (2019 = -4.6)

Euro Area (2019 = -1.0)

Japan (2019 = -2.8)

U.K. (2019 = -1.3)

Canada (2019 = -0.6)

Percent of GDP

NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for 2018 are estimates for all except U.K.

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

Chart 19a. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for Russia in 2018 is an estimate.

Brazil (2019 = -7.3) Russia (2019 = 1.0)

India (2019 = -6.9) Indonesia (2019 = -1.8)

-7-6-5-4-3-2-101

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

Chart 19b. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

NOTE: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for South Africa in 2018 is an estimate.

South Africa (2019 = -5.1)China (2019 = -6.1)

Japan (2019 = 237.5)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Chart 20. General Government Gross Debt

U.S. (2019 = 106.7)

Euro Area (2019 = 83.6)

U.K. (2019 = 85.7)

Canada (2019 = 88.0)

NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for 2018 are estimates for all except U.K.

Percent of GDP Percent of GDP

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

Chart 21a. General Government Gross Debt

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for Russia in 2018 is an estimate.

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

Brazil (2019 = 90.4) Russia (2019 = 13.8)

India (2019 = 69.0) Indonesia (2019 = 29.3)

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

Chart 21b. General Government Gross Debt

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent of GDP

NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for South Africa in 2018 is an estimate.

China (2019 = 55.4) South Africa (2019 = 57.8)

Monetary Policy

Sources: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Chart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates

U.S. (Oct 07 = 1.875)

Euro Area (Oct 08 = 0.00)

Japan (Oct 08 = -0.10)

U.K. (Oct 08 = 0.75)

Canada (Oct 08 = 1.75)

Percent

NOTES: The chart plots the federal funds rate for the U.S., the main refinancing operation rate for the Euro Area, the base rate for the

U.K., the overnight target rate for Canada and the uncollateralized overnight call rate for Japan applied until April 3, 2013, before the main

operating policy target changed to expanding the monetary base. On February 16, 2016, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) adopted negative interest

rates applied to excess reserves that financial institutions hold at the BoJ. The Bank also introduced an interest rate target of around 0

percent for its 10-year government bond yields in September 2016.

Bank of Indonesia Rate (Aug 2016 = 6.50)

Repo Rate (Oct 08 = 5.15)

Bank of Russia Key Rate (Oct 08 = 7.00)

Brazil Russia

India Indonesia

Overnight SELIC Target Rate (Oct 08 = 5.50)

Reverse Repo Rate (Oct 08 = 4.90)

7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (Oct 08 = 5.25)

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

Chart 23a. Central Bank Policy Rates

in Major Emerging Economies

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

NOTE: The Reserve Bank of India utilizes the repo rate to inject liquidity into the monetary system and the reverse repo rate to remove liquidity. On August 19, 2016, the Bank of Indonesia changed its policy rate from the BI rate to the 7-day reverse repo rate.

Average Repo Rate (Oct 08 = 6.50)

China South Africa

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percent

Chart 23b. Central Bank Policy Rates

1-Year Lending Rate (Nov 21 = 4.25)

1-Year Deposit Rate (Oct 08 = 1.50)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Chart 24. Money Supply Growth

U.S. (Aug = 5.9)

Euro Area (Aug = 6.3)

Japan (Aug = 2.4)

U.K. (Aug = 3.2)

Canada (Aug = 7.5)

Percent, Year/Year

NOTE: The chart plots MZM in the U.S, M2 in the Euro Area, Japan and Canada and M4 in the U.K.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Chart 25. Money Supply Growth

Brazil (Aug = 6.4)Russia (Aug = 7.2)India (Aug = 12.0)Indonesia (Aug = 7.3)China (Aug = 8.2)South Africa (Aug = 5.1)

Percent, Year/Year

NOTE: The chart plots M2 for each country.

U.S. External Accounts

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Chart 26. U.S. Terms of Trade

Terms of Trade (Aug = 102.6)

Terms of Trade (Excluding Oil) (Aug = 88.4)

Index, Jan. 1990 = 100

NOTE: U.S. terms of trade are calculated as the import price index/export price index.

Sources: Census Bureau; Haver Analytics

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Chart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs Value

Bil. U.S. Dollars

NOTE: The chart plots the nominal trade balance in goods.

Last Observation: Aug = -73.1

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Chart 28. U.S. Current Account Balance

Percent of GDP

NOTE: All values are nominal.

Last Observation: 2019 Q2 = -2.4

Sources: Federal Reserve Board; Haver Analytics

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Chart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. Dollar

Nominal Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Sep = 113.5)

U.S. Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Sep = 96.4)

U.S. Dollar vs. Other Important Trading Partners (Sep = 134.8)

Index, Jan. 2000 = 100

NOTE: Countries or regions whose currencies are included in the major currencies index are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. Countries included in the other important trading partners index are Mexico, China,

Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia. An increase in each index represents an appreciation of the U.S. dollar and a decrease represents a

depreciation.

Sources: Federal Reserve Board; Haver Analytics

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Chart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar

Real Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Sep = 102.8)

U.S.Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Sep = 109.3)

U.S.Dollar vs. Other Important Trading Partners (Sep = 99.9)

Index, Jan. 2000 = 100

NOTE: Countries or regions whose currencies are included in the major currencies index are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. Countries included in the other important trading partners index are Mexico, China,

Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia. An increase in each index represents an appreciation of the U.S. dollar and a decrease represents a

depreciation.

Current Analysis

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Chart 31. Global Current Account Balances

Bil. U.S. Dollars

Others

Oil Exporters

Germany

NOTE: Oil exporting countries are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United ArabEmirates and Venezuela. The remaining countries not already listed for which there is data comprise "Others". Striped columns denote

forecasts.

Sources: Reuters; Haver Analytics

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Chart 32. Bond Spreads for

Select Euro Area Economies

Greece (Oct 07 = 199)

Ireland (Oct 07 = 55)

Portugal (Oct 07 = 70)

Spain (Oct 07 = 73)

Italy (Oct 07 = 153)

Basis Points

NOTE: The chart shows the spread, or difference, in interest rates between 10-year government bonds for various countries and German 10-year government bonds.

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: Bank for International Settlements, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics

France U.K. Germany Belgium Ireland Switzerland Spain Austria Italy U.S. Japan Sweden Canada

Chart 33. Select Economies' Banking Exposure

to Peripheral Euro-Area Sovereign Debt

Greece

Ireland

Portugal

Percent of GDP

NOTES: The chart plots the claims that banks in each country have, as a share of its 2018 GDP, on sovereign debt in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. All GDP values are based on International Monetary Fund estimates. All values are nominal.

Q1 2019

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Greece

Ireland

Portugal

Percent of GDP

Chart 34. Sovereign Debt Repayment Schedule

for Select Euro-Area Economies

2019 2023202220212020

NOTES: Repayment amounts include both principal and accrued interest. All GDP values are projections from the International Monetary Fund. All values are nominal.

global economic conditions - dallasfed.org · 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009...

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