global air traffic

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Asia-Pacific passenger forecast scheduled international) 1994-2010

Passengers carried millions)

50

High

Most

likely

Low

1980

990

000

005 010

almost 49 million trans-Pacific

passengers by 2010.

In line with passenger growth

forecasts, aircraft movements

across the Pacific are expected

to increase from an estimated

97,220 in 1994 to more than

125,000 in 2000. If so, annual

aircraft movements would

increase by 4.3 per cent. By

2010 the Group forecasts that

transpacific aircraft movements

will reach 192,000.

Australian growth

Asia Pacific airlines are expected to

grow at a faster rate than the global

average.

N ITS LATEST FORECASTS,

the International Civil Avi-

ation Organization ICAO)

predicts the w orldwide air trails-

port boom w ill continue.

ICAO forecasts that total

world passenger traffic will grow

at an average rate of 5.5 per cent

per year from 1995 to 2005.

Assuming this growth, there

would be an increase of around

70 per cen t in passenger traffic

during this decade.

Statistics include internation-

al and dome stic traffic and are

measured in passenger-kilome-

tres travelled.

From 1995 to 2005,

ICAO

pre-

dicts that worldwide interna-

tional passenger traffic is likely to

grow at a rate faster than total

world traffic, with a predicted

average growth rate of 7 per cent

per annum . If this is the case, the

number of worldwide interna-

tional passengers travelling in

2005 w ill be almost double the

number w ho travelled in 1995.

Asia-Pacific

Similarly, traffic in the Asia-

Pacific market is predicted to

grow at a rate faster than the

worldwide growth rates, accord-

ing to the

ICAO Asia/Pacific Area

Traffic Forecasting G roup.

In the 7 years from 1993 to

200 0, intra Asia-Pacific passen-

ger traffic is forecast to increase

by app roximately 55 per cent, at

an annual growth of 6.4 per

cent, peaking at around 85 mil-

lion passengers in 200 0.

Similarly, the numb er of pas-

sengers travelling intra Asia-

Pacific is forecast to grow at a

rate of 6.2 per cent per year in

the decade from 200 0, with 72

million more passengers expect-

ed to travel in 2010 than in 2000.

This predicted growth follows

an increase in intra Asia-Pacific

travel of around 28.5 million

passengers from 1982 26.7 mil-

l ion passengers) to 1993 55.2

million passengers), at an aver-

age annual increase of 6.8 per

cent.

W ith forecasts based on Gross

Domestic Product

(GDP) and

yield projections, the

ICAO

Asia/Pacific Area Traffic Fore-

casting Group p redicts that, for

the period 1994 to 2000,

transpacific passenger traffic

will increase at an average 6.9

per cent a year. T his will increase

the numb er of passengers cross-

ing the P acific to 27 million in

2000.

For the decade 2000 to 2010,

the Group p redicts a somew hat

lower rate of 6.1 per cent per

annum, resulting in a forecast of

The number of revenue passen-

gers carried on international

scheduled air services to and

from Australia increased by 9.8

per cent for the year ended

October 1996 over the year

ended October 1995, according

to statistics produced by the

Department of Transport and

Regional Development.

Sydney s Kingsford Smith

Airport accounted for almost 49

per cent of the total interna-

tional passenger traffic through

Australian airports for the year

to October 1996, followed by

Melbourne with 16.5 p er cent,

Brisbane with 16.4 per cent,

Perth with 9.8 per cent and

Cairns with 5.5 pe r cent.

Copies of these reports can be

purchased from

AVSTATS

in the

Department of Transport and

Regional Development, phone

06 274 7720, fax 06 274 7727.

Joanne Nelson is a commu nications

officer with CASA

8 FLIGHT SAFETY AUSTRALIA AUTUM N 1997