gisborne update may 2011
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Gisborne UpdateMay 2011
• The World has changed … again• Vintage• Recent Developments• The Year Ahead• Member Survey• Discussion
Agenda
• In many ways a typical NZ (la Nina) vintage; quality overall seems to be fine.
• We expect volume to be down Auckland, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay
• Weather issues were a feature in these regions
• Wairarapa & South Island generally favourable weather, but with disease pressure in some regions.
• Vintage Survey still underway – we expect vintage to be +/- 310,000 tonnes (wineries please send in your forms)
Vintage 2011
Recent Developments: Export Wine returns – all wine
Mar
Apr
May
June Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan-10 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan-11 Feb
Mar
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Month MAT
$/litre
Recent Developments: Export Wine returns – all wine
Mar
Apr
May
June Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan-10 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan-11 Feb
Mar
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Month MAT
$/litre
March 2011 –Highest pricesince Dec 2009
Recent Developments: Export Wine returns – packaged wine (i.e. excl. Bulk)
Mar
Apr
May
June Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan-10 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan-11 Feb
Mar
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
MAT Month
$/litre
Recent Developments: Export Wine returns – packaged wine (i.e. excl. Bulk)
Mar
Apr
May
June Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan-10 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan-11 Feb
Mar
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
MAT Month
$/litre
March 2011 –Highest pricesince June 2009
Recent Developments: Lower Bulk Exports - % Share
May
June
July
200
9
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Jan
2010 Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
10
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Jan-
11 Feb
Mar
Apr0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Month MAT
%
Recent Developments: Lower Bulk Exports - % Share
May
June
July
200
9
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Jan
2010 Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
10
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Jan-
11 Feb
Mar
Apr0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Month MAT
%
In Mar/Apr we have not seen the big bulk shipments of last year
Recent Developments: Lower Bulk Exports
Apr
May
June July
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Jan
2010 Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June July
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Jan-
11 Feb
Mar
Apr0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Packaged volume Bulk volume
mill
ions
of l
itres
Recent Developments: Lower Bulk Exports
Apr
May
June July
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Jan
2010 Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June July
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Jan-
11 Feb
Mar
Apr0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Packaged volume Bulk volume
mill
ions
of l
itres Bulk exports have declined 4m
litres from their peak in Jan 11
Recent Developments: More SB Exported – there is less wine available to export
Apr
May
June Ju
l
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June July
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c -
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20062007200820092010
% o
f Pro
ducti
on E
xpor
ted
Recent Developments: More SB Exported – there is less wine available to export
Apr
May
June Ju
l
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June July
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c -
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20062007200820092010
% o
f Pro
ducti
on E
xpor
ted
SB shipments are two monthsAhead of 2008 & 2009
• A lot depends on the vintage size … based on a 310,000 tonne vintage
• We expect there to be a surge of SB 2011exports in May/June given shortage of 2010 wines
• We expect a rise in bulk exports, at least in the short term
• But expect growing shortages later in the year which should provide some upside to wine prices (currency influences aside)
• That relief may come too late for some struggling wineries/growers …
The Year Ahead
• Being distributed today … please take 15 minutes to complete
• Why?
• Well in 2012 it is10 years since NZ Winegrowers was formed … its time
• An important part of a wider Strategic Review
• To perform our role well – we must know what our members expect of us…
Membership Survey
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