geographic trends in mongolian political opinions john paul oleksiuk summer 2003 honors college...

Geographic Trends in Mongolian Political Opinions

John Paul Oleksiuk

Summer 2003 Honors College Research Grant

Advisor: Dr. William Harbert

Presentation Outline

• What is a GIS? How can a GIS be useful?

• Why Mongolia?

• Where did the political survey data come from? What questions were asked?

• How did I get the survey data onto a map?

• What do some sample maps look like?

• What will I do with these maps?

What is a GIS? A Geographic Information

System is a way of visualizing data with a geographic component. Similar information is grouped together in a “data layer”

Picture taken from http://www.gis.com

How can a GIS be useful?

• “Snow Map” – Cholera in London, 1859• Natural disaster planning• Detecting crime patterns• Mapping the human body• City planning / infrastructure management• Efficient route planning• Census data visualization• Homeland Security• Looking for trends in political opinions…

Why Mongolia?

• It is an interesting, understudied part of the world with a dynamic political situation

• GIS has not been used in this manner in this country before

• The data collected by the Sant Maral Foundation are very suitable for GIS visualization

Some facts about Mongolia• Mongolia is about twice the size of Texas• It is located between China and Russia• The Gobi desert encompasses the southern

third of the country, and it has temperature extremes of over 100 degrees in the summer and below -40 degrees in the winter

• Population is almost 3 million—4 people/sq mi.• Livestock outnumber people 12:1• Some Mongolians have three-digit phone

numbers

How is the survey data collected?• L. Sumati runs the Sant Maral Foundation

• The organization has predicted the winner of each of the 3 national elections to within fewer than 2.8%

• Sumati takes care to ensure that all people (even nomads) have an equal chance of being represented

• March 2003 survey included 5 Aimags and 1536 respondents

For more information see July 16, 2001 issue of “The New Yorker”

What questions were asked?Among the questions I mapped were:• If the election were tomorrow, would you vote?• What is the best political party?• With which country is it important for Mongolia

to have good relations?• Was the transition to a democratic system

correct?• Was the transition to a market system correct?• Was the decision to privatize land correct?

How do I get this data onto a map?

• Sumati sent me the March 2003 dataset in SPSS format, and with some effort, I was able to convert this file into something readable by ArcMap, ESRI’s GIS software

• With the use of many SQL queries, I was able to calculate the percentage of respondents that gave a particular answer at a particular location

The Survey Data

The Survey Summaries

Cloud Free View of Asia

Russia

China

India

MongoliaKazakhstan

Pakistan

Myanmar

Thailand

Afghanistan

Laos

Japan

Vietnam

Nepal

UzbekistanKyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Cambodia

Japan

North Korea

Bangladesh

Philippines

South Korea

Japan

Bhutan

Taiwan

Japan

PhilippinesPhilippines

Cloud Free View of Mongolia

China

Russia

Mongolia

Kazakhstan

Survey locations for March 2003

Uvs

Dornod

Dornogovi

Ovorhangay

Ulaanbaatar

Which is the best party?

Legend

MPRP (Communist)

MDP (Democratic)

Best Partner

Legend

15Russia

China

USA

Japan

Legend

right

wrong

Was the decision to privatize land the right move or wrong move?

Legend

right

wrong

Desert

Grassland

Grassland

Desert

Was the transition to a market economy the right move?

Legend

Right move

Wrong move

Transition to market economy (continued)

Legend

Wrong Move

Was the transition to a democratic system the right move?

Legend

Right Move

Wrong Move

Transition to democratic system (continued)

Legend

Wrong Move

“Democratic system is wrong” vs. “Market economy is wrong”

Legend

Democratic is wrong

Market is wrong

3 stations4 stations13 stations

2 stations1 station

Density of Radio Stations

1 station2 stations

3 stations 13 stations4 stations

Map possibilities

There are many combinations of data layers that I have created (for about a dozen different survey questions and the radio coverage in Mongolia) and prior existing data layers (administrative boundaries, habitat, infrastructure, and census data) that may show direct correlations

What’s Next?

More quantitative analysis is necessary before a report based on these maps can be published– I will work with a political science professor– I will take a statistics class in the fall– The final product will satisfy the Independent

Study requirement for a GIS certificate, and possibly develop into a B. Phil. thesis

Acknowledgments

• L. Sumati, Sant Maral Foundation

• William Harbert, Geology

• Doc Stewart, UHC

• Amy Eckardt, UHC

• Steve Saunders, NAMBC

• Wengfang Tang, Political Science

• Mark Weixel, UCIS