geographic trends in mongolian political opinions john paul oleksiuk summer 2003 honors college...
TRANSCRIPT
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Geographic Trends in Mongolian Political Opinions
John Paul Oleksiuk
Summer 2003 Honors College Research Grant
Advisor: Dr. William Harbert
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Presentation Outline
• What is a GIS? How can a GIS be useful?
• Why Mongolia?
• Where did the political survey data come from? What questions were asked?
• How did I get the survey data onto a map?
• What do some sample maps look like?
• What will I do with these maps?
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What is a GIS? A Geographic Information
System is a way of visualizing data with a geographic component. Similar information is grouped together in a “data layer”
Picture taken from http://www.gis.com
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How can a GIS be useful?
• “Snow Map” – Cholera in London, 1859• Natural disaster planning• Detecting crime patterns• Mapping the human body• City planning / infrastructure management• Efficient route planning• Census data visualization• Homeland Security• Looking for trends in political opinions…
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Why Mongolia?
• It is an interesting, understudied part of the world with a dynamic political situation
• GIS has not been used in this manner in this country before
• The data collected by the Sant Maral Foundation are very suitable for GIS visualization
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Some facts about Mongolia• Mongolia is about twice the size of Texas• It is located between China and Russia• The Gobi desert encompasses the southern
third of the country, and it has temperature extremes of over 100 degrees in the summer and below -40 degrees in the winter
• Population is almost 3 million—4 people/sq mi.• Livestock outnumber people 12:1• Some Mongolians have three-digit phone
numbers
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How is the survey data collected?• L. Sumati runs the Sant Maral Foundation
• The organization has predicted the winner of each of the 3 national elections to within fewer than 2.8%
• Sumati takes care to ensure that all people (even nomads) have an equal chance of being represented
• March 2003 survey included 5 Aimags and 1536 respondents
For more information see July 16, 2001 issue of “The New Yorker”
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What questions were asked?Among the questions I mapped were:• If the election were tomorrow, would you vote?• What is the best political party?• With which country is it important for Mongolia
to have good relations?• Was the transition to a democratic system
correct?• Was the transition to a market system correct?• Was the decision to privatize land correct?
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How do I get this data onto a map?
• Sumati sent me the March 2003 dataset in SPSS format, and with some effort, I was able to convert this file into something readable by ArcMap, ESRI’s GIS software
• With the use of many SQL queries, I was able to calculate the percentage of respondents that gave a particular answer at a particular location
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The Survey Data
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The Survey Summaries
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Cloud Free View of Asia
Russia
China
India
MongoliaKazakhstan
Pakistan
Myanmar
Thailand
Afghanistan
Laos
Japan
Vietnam
Nepal
UzbekistanKyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Cambodia
Japan
North Korea
Bangladesh
Philippines
South Korea
Japan
Bhutan
Taiwan
Japan
PhilippinesPhilippines
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Cloud Free View of Mongolia
China
Russia
Mongolia
Kazakhstan
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Survey locations for March 2003
Uvs
Dornod
Dornogovi
Ovorhangay
Ulaanbaatar
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Which is the best party?
Legend
MPRP (Communist)
MDP (Democratic)
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Best Partner
Legend
15Russia
China
USA
Japan
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Legend
right
wrong
Was the decision to privatize land the right move or wrong move?
Legend
right
wrong
Desert
Grassland
Grassland
Desert
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Was the transition to a market economy the right move?
Legend
Right move
Wrong move
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Transition to market economy (continued)
Legend
Wrong Move
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Was the transition to a democratic system the right move?
Legend
Right Move
Wrong Move
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Transition to democratic system (continued)
Legend
Wrong Move
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“Democratic system is wrong” vs. “Market economy is wrong”
Legend
Democratic is wrong
Market is wrong
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3 stations4 stations13 stations
2 stations1 station
Density of Radio Stations
1 station2 stations
3 stations 13 stations4 stations
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Map possibilities
There are many combinations of data layers that I have created (for about a dozen different survey questions and the radio coverage in Mongolia) and prior existing data layers (administrative boundaries, habitat, infrastructure, and census data) that may show direct correlations
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What’s Next?
More quantitative analysis is necessary before a report based on these maps can be published– I will work with a political science professor– I will take a statistics class in the fall– The final product will satisfy the Independent
Study requirement for a GIS certificate, and possibly develop into a B. Phil. thesis
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Acknowledgments
• L. Sumati, Sant Maral Foundation
• William Harbert, Geology
• Doc Stewart, UHC
• Amy Eckardt, UHC
• Steve Saunders, NAMBC
• Wengfang Tang, Political Science
• Mark Weixel, UCIS