gcc fall 16 section 10 action - university of idahojhicke/courses/...• remove other stressors...

GlobalClimateChange 1 ProfJ.Hicke

GEOG313/513Fall2016

Learningoutcomes

• understandmitigationandadaptation,andknowthedifferencesandinteractions

• describewaysofmitigatingfutureclimatechange

• understandtheaspectsofclimatechangepreparednessplanning(impacts,vulnerability,riskassessments,adaptationplans)

• beawareofethicalissuesaboutclimatechange,mitigation,andadaptation

Section10:Action

GlobalClimateChange 2 ProfJ.Hicke

Section10:Action

Outline

10.1Mitigation

10.2Adaptation

GlobalClimateChange 3 ProfJ.Hicke

“Thebenefitsofstrong,earlyactiononclimatechangeoutweighthecosts”

SternReview:TheEconomicsofClimateChange,2006

GlobalClimateChange 4 ProfJ.Hicke

Existingpowertechnologiesusedwidely

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cattenom_Nuclear_Power_Plant

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

hydroelectricgeothermal

nuclear

GlobalClimateChange 5 ProfJ.Hicke

Emergingpowertechnologies

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

solarwind

GlobalClimateChange 6 ProfJ.Hicke

InfographicaboutclimatechangefromWorldBank

www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/11/23/infographic-climate-change-latin-america-middle-east-central-asia

GlobalClimateChange 7 ProfJ.Hicke

PathwaystostabilizingCO2emissions

PacalaandSocolow,Science,2004

Withexistingtechnologies,cansocietystabilizationCO2emissions?

Need7technologies,eachofwhichreducesemissionsin50yearsby1Gt C/year(a“wedge”).

(Now9areneededbecauseofnoactionsince2004.)

GlobalClimateChange 8 ProfJ.HickePacala andSocolow,Science,2004

energyconservationandefficiency

fuelswitching,Ccapturestorage

15wedges:

alternativeenergysources

landmanagement

PathwaystostabilizingCO2emissions

GlobalClimateChange 9 ProfJ.Hicke

Sum=6000MtCO2-eq/yrCurrentfossilfuel+cement emissions=34,000MtCO2/yr

Mitigationoptionsinagriculture

IPCC,WorkingGroupIII,2007

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In2030

Mitigationoptionsinagriculture

IPCC,WorkingGroupIII,2007

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Currentfossilfuel+cementemissions=34

GtCO2/yr

CumulativeCby2050andby2100

Mitigationoptionsinforestry

IPCC,WorkingGroupIII,2007

GlobalClimateChange 12 ProfJ.Hicke

Currentfossilfuel+cement emissions=34GtCO2/yr

CumulativeCO2by2055

Mitigationoptionsinforestry:avoideddeforestation

IPCC,WorkingGroupIII,2007

GlobalClimateChange 13 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Geoengineering possibilities

GlobalClimateChange 14 ProfJ.Hicke

Section10:Action

Outline

10.1Mitigation

10.2Adaptation

GlobalClimateChange 15 ProfJ.HickeGlicketal.2011

whetherorhowasystemisaffectedbyachangein

climate

howmuchclimatechangeasystemwillexperience abilityto

minimizeimpact

riskassessment,adaptationplantominimizeeffect

susceptibilityofasystemtoadverseeffectsfromclimate

change

Climatechangeimpactandvulnerabilityassessments

GlobalClimateChange 16 ProfJ.HickeGlicketal.2011

Example:buildingA/Cturn-oninspring

turnonA/Cwhendailymaximumtemperature

exceeds62ºF

springtemperaturewillincreaseby5ºFby

2030 shortterm:turnonA/Cearlier

longterm:buildingmodifi-cations

low(butcostly)

turn-ondaywilladvancebythree

weeks

riskassessment,adaptationplantominimizeeffect

GlobalClimateChange 17 ProfJ.Hicke

• identifyaspectsofINLthatcouldbeaffectedbyclimatechange

• quantifyhowthesesystems/componentswillrespond

• determinethecapacitytoadapttominimizeimpact

• assessclimatechangerisks(consequence× probability)

• developadaptationplantominimizenegativeimpacts

GoalsofclimateadaptationplanningatIdahoNationalLaboratory

www.id.doe.govwww.inl.gov Daltonetal.,2013

GlobalClimateChange 18 ProfJ.Hicke

Physicalassetsandrealproperty• redistributionofpopulation• hydropowerenergyproductiondisruption• availabilityofpotableandnon-potablewater• probability/severityoffire• stormevents/flooding/erosion• decreasedheatingneedsinwinter• increasedcoolingneedsinsummer• electricalshortages• sealevelrise• hurricanes• coastalerosion• fuelsupplydisruptionduetoseverestorms

Programmatic• increasedenergy,watercosts• opportunitiesforcleanenergydevelopment

anddeployment• groundwaterremediation• budgetconsiderations• historicalorculturalpreservationonDOElands• landfill/wastesites

Examplesofsystems/componentspotentiallyvulnerabletoclimatechange(atDOElevel)

Humanhealthandsafety• disease• qualityoflife• heatstress• transportationinfrastructure

disturbances,includingtoDOEfacilitiesandsupplychain

DOE2014InterimClimateChangeAdaptationPlan

GlobalClimateChange 19 ProfJ.Hicke

• Isthesystemalreadyabletoaccommodatechangesinclimate?

• Aretherebarrierstoasystem'sabilitytoaccommodatechangesinclimate?

• Isthesystemalreadystressedinwaysthatwilllimittheabilitytoaccommodatechangesinclimate?

• Istherateofprojectedclimatechangelikelytobefasterthantheadaptabilityofthesystem?

• Arethereeffortsalreadyunderwaytoaddressimpactsofclimatechangerelatedtothesystem?

Considerationsfordeterminingadaptivecapacity

USDOTFHA,2012;Snoveretal.,2007 Glicketal.2011

GlobalClimateChange 20 ProfJ.Hicke

combine:• exposure(climatechangeinformation)• sensitivity(responsetoclimatechange)• adaptivecapacity

twoapproaches• quantitativeanalysis(uncommon)• expertopinion

• yieldslow/medium/highrating

Determiningvulnerability

USDOTFHA,2012;Snoveretal.,2007Glicketal.2011

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Identifyingsectors/systems/componentsatINLthatcouldbeaffectedbyclimatechange

Glicketal.2011

Needtoconsiderbothdirectandindirecteffects

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INLimpactandvulnerabilityassessmentsensitivity exposure

adapt.capacityimpact vuln.

Glicketal.2011

GlobalClimateChange 23 ProfJ.HickeIPCC,WG2,2013

GlobalClimateChange 24 ProfJ.Hicke

www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/plans.html

States,LocalClimateAdaptationPlans

GlobalClimateChange 25 ProfJ.Hicke

villagerelocationbecauseofsealevel

rise,erosion

upgradingsewersystems

LA:$10Mforresiliency(planning,capacity,guidance)

citiesformedadaptationalliance

toshareinfo

NationalClimateAssessment,2014

Currentadaptationactivities

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USDAForestServiceclimateadaptationplans

slidecourtesyDavePeterson,USFS

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Vulnerabilities and adaptationWATER

Vulnerability• Higher peak flows in fall

and winter

Adaptation strategy• Design infrastructure to

accommodate higher peak flows

SlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

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Vulnerabilities and adaptationWATER

Vulnerability• Higher peak flows in fall

and winter

Adaptation tactics• Install larger culverts• Decommission roads in

floodplains• Relocate campgrounds

subject to floodingSlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

GlobalClimateChange 29 ProfJ.Hicke

Vulnerabilities and adaptationFISHERIES

Vulnerability• Higher stream

temperatures will degrade habitat

Adaptation strategy• Restore and maintain

cold-water habitat

SlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

GlobalClimateChange 30 ProfJ.Hicke

Vulnerabilities and adaptationFISHERIES

Vulnerability• Higher stream

temperatures will degrade habitat

Adaptation tactics• Map cold-water habitat• Restore side channels• Increase shade in

riparian areas

SlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

GlobalClimateChange 31 ProfJ.Hicke

Vulnerabilities and adaptationVEGETATION

Vulnerability• Wildfire will burn more

area and over a longer fire season

Adaptation strategy• Increase resilience of

forest ecosystems to more frequent fire

SlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

GlobalClimateChange 32 ProfJ.Hicke

Vulnerabilities and adaptationVEGETATION

Vulnerability• Wildfire will burn more

area and over a longer fire season

Adaptation tactics• Reduce stand densities• Accelerate hazardous

fuel treatments• Manage for diversity of

stand agesSlidecourtesyofD.Peterson,USFS

GlobalClimateChange 33 ProfJ.Hicke

1.restraint(donothing)

2.resilience(buytime)• facilitateanecosystem’sororganism’s

abilitytorebound/recoveryfromadisturbance

• removeotherstressors(invasivespecies,humanpressure)

• thinforeststodecreasedroughtvulnerability

3.resistance(buytime)• fuelbreakstostopwildfires• controllinginsectoutbreaks• dripirrigation

4.realignment(long-termchange)• assistedmigration• plantwithspeciesbetter

adaptedtonew/futureclimatefollowingseveredisturbance

• mixinggenotypesfromotherregions(thatmaybemoreresilient/resistant)

Adaptationoptionsinwildernessareas

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AmericanSocietyofAdaptationProfessionals

GlobalClimateChange 35 ProfJ.Hicke

“Whitebarkpine(Pinusalbicaulis)assistedmigrationpotential:testingestablishment

northofthespeciesrange”

McLaneandAiken,Ecol.Appl.,2012

Assistedmigrationofspecies

GlobalClimateChange 36 ProfJ.Hicke

Triallocations(blackdots)

Seedsources (whitesquares)

McLaneandAiken,Ecol.Appl.,2012

Assistedmigrationofspecies

GlobalClimateChange 37 ProfJ.Hicke

Resultsoftrials

McLaneandAiken,Ecol.Appl.,2012

coldestsites

Assistedmigrationofspecies