funded under the european commission seventh framework programme contract number: 244031

Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and

vulnerability in Europe

Funded under the European CommissionSeventh Framework Programme

Contract Number: 244031

Identifying vulnerability hotspots using the Integrated Assessment Platform

For further information contact Rob Dunford (email: Robert.Dunford@ouce.ox.ac.uk) or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu)

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Vulnerability hotspot approach

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Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Indicator variables

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Standardisation

Expert-based system developed to convert datasets to standardised 0-1 index.

0.0-0.2 : Very low0.2-0.4 : Low0.4-0.6 : Medium0.6-0.8 : High0.8-1.0 : Very high

With reference to European and world max/min values.

For some variables (life expectancy) values should already be “very high” across the board. For others there should be more spread.

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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The four capitals at baseline

HUMAN CAPITAL

FINANCIAL CAPITAL

SOCIAL CAPITAL

MANUFACTURED CAPITAL

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Scenario coping capacities

2020 Max

2020 Min

Current Max

Current Min

2050 Max

2050 Min

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Coping Capacity at baseline

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Coping capacity for scenarios

2020s

2050s

We are the world

Riders on the storm Icarus Should I stay

or should I go

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Vulnerability

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From sectoral experts From coping capacity method From IA Platform

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Mapping vulnerability

BiodiversityVulnerability

2050s

BiodiversityVulnerability

2020s

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Cross-sectoral vulnerability

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Aggregate vulnerability

Extreme climate scenario(GFCM21, High emissions)

Icarus socio-economic scenario

Moderate climate scenario(CSMK3, Low emissions)

We are the world socio-economic scenario

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Conclusions

• The CLIMSAVE approach to vulnerability assessment:– is replicable and transferable;– allows the integration of the concepts of capitals and coping

capacity with stakeholder-derived scenarios; and– produces patterns of coping capacity that might be expected

for the socio-economic scenarios.

• The aggregate vulnerability hotspot maps suggest that human well-being is most at risk from water stress and biodiversity loss in southern Europe, and from the lack of food provision and land use diversity in northern Europe.