funded under the european commission seventh framework programme contract number: 244031
DESCRIPTION
Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross- sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe. Identifying vulnerability hotspots using the Integrated Assessment Platform. For further information contact Rob Dunford (email: [email protected] ) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and
vulnerability in Europe
Funded under the European CommissionSeventh Framework Programme
Contract Number: 244031
Identifying vulnerability hotspots using the Integrated Assessment Platform
For further information contact Rob Dunford (email: [email protected]) or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu)
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Vulnerability hotspot approach
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Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Indicator variables
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Standardisation
Expert-based system developed to convert datasets to standardised 0-1 index.
0.0-0.2 : Very low0.2-0.4 : Low0.4-0.6 : Medium0.6-0.8 : High0.8-1.0 : Very high
With reference to European and world max/min values.
For some variables (life expectancy) values should already be “very high” across the board. For others there should be more spread.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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The four capitals at baseline
HUMAN CAPITAL
FINANCIAL CAPITAL
SOCIAL CAPITAL
MANUFACTURED CAPITAL
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Scenario coping capacities
2020 Max
2020 Min
Current Max
Current Min
2050 Max
2050 Min
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Coping Capacity at baseline
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Coping capacity for scenarios
2020s
2050s
We are the world
Riders on the storm Icarus Should I stay
or should I go
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Vulnerability
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From sectoral experts From coping capacity method From IA Platform
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Mapping vulnerability
BiodiversityVulnerability
2050s
BiodiversityVulnerability
2020s
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Cross-sectoral vulnerability
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Aggregate vulnerability
Extreme climate scenario(GFCM21, High emissions)
Icarus socio-economic scenario
Moderate climate scenario(CSMK3, Low emissions)
We are the world socio-economic scenario
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Conclusions
• The CLIMSAVE approach to vulnerability assessment:– is replicable and transferable;– allows the integration of the concepts of capitals and coping
capacity with stakeholder-derived scenarios; and– produces patterns of coping capacity that might be expected
for the socio-economic scenarios.
• The aggregate vulnerability hotspot maps suggest that human well-being is most at risk from water stress and biodiversity loss in southern Europe, and from the lack of food provision and land use diversity in northern Europe.