findings of the ipcc

Asoka AbeygunawardanaExecutive Director , Energy Forum

Board Member – Climate Action Network South Asia

Findings of the IPCC-AR5

• IPCC – 1988

• IPCC: AR 1 - 1990 – UNFCCC

• IPCC: AR 2 - 1995 – Mitigation - Kyoto Protocol

• IPCC: AR 3 - 2001 – Adaptation

• IPCC: AR 4 - 2007 - Ultimate Objective (2°C) Bali/ Copenhagen/

Durban

• IPCC: AR 5 - 2014 - ??? – DRR/ Loss & Damage;• Migration/ Riots

IPCC

WG I (Physical science basis): 209 lead authors, 2014 pages, 54,677 review comments – Sept, 2013

WG II (Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability): 243 lead authors, 2500 pages, 50,492 review comments- March, 2014

WG III (Mitigation of Climate Change): 235 coordinating and lead authors, 2000 pages, 38,315 review comments –April, 2014

CO2 emission – 60% since 1990CO2 Concentration – 45%Temperature – 0.9oCSea level rise – 19 cm

GHG Emissions – Past, Present and Future

WG1 12-129

Who is responsible?

What has happened since 1990?

19811984

19871990

19931996

19992002

20052008

20112014

20172020

20232026

20292032

20352038

20412044

20470.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Coal (x500x million t/y)

Gas ('00 million cubic m/y)

Oil (billion bbl/y)

Carbon Budget

CO2 allowed for 2 degrees (50%) 1,120 Gt CO2 allowed for 2 degrees (66%) 1,010 Gt

Pathways

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Understanding the Bell curve

Right to pollute …… ?

Bell Curve- Compensation …?

BAU – Growth Curve

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2015 2020

S - curve

CO2 emissions peak50% chancepeaking 500 ppm stabilize 450 ppm

Fossil Fuel Addiction

REEE

High wind potential: over 6% of land Potential capacity- 20,000 MW. Lagoon areas: Potential capacity - 24,000 MW National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of AmericaBrown - 5.6< <8.8Blue - 8.8<

Wind Power

Dendro Power

Solar PowerRange • 4.2 to 5.6 kWh/m2/day on a horizontal

surface• 4.5 to 6.0 kWh/m2/day

for a flat plate collector tilted to latitude• 7.32 kWh/m2/day With two axis tracking

one axis done manually for seasons

20152016

20172018

20192020

20212022

20232024

20252026

20272028

20292030

20312032

20332034

20352036

20372038

20392040

20412042

20432044

20452046

20472048

20492050

20512052

20532054

-

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

Cost of Electricity

Mini hydro

Wind

Biomass - dendro

Coal considering scarcity

Coal with import tax & scarcity

Year

Uni

t pric

e (R

s/kW

h)

1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000bkaOk wdkhk yd idïm%odhsl wmkhk

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jir

re ñ

,shk

Fossil Fuel Imports Vs Earnings from traditional Tea, Rubber and Coconut exports

Issue 3- Stress on Foreign Currency Reservesm%Yakh 2- úfoaY úksuh ixÑ; u; we;s jk mSvkh

¨Total potential - 2000 MW¨Potential HEZ - 200 MW

Wave Power

OTEC

Energy Hub?

Exclusive Economic Zone - 200 nautical miles- 517,000 km2 7.8 times SL

20132015

20172019

20212023

20252027

20292031

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

CEB Genartion Plan -Base Case - 2013-2032

Oil

Coal

NCRE

New Major Hydro

Existing Major Hydro

Ener

gy (G

Wh)

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Source: CEB

Power

International Negotiations……!

Think Locally – Act Globally

Think Globally – Act Locally