financial analysis - facebook inc. operates a social networking website. the company's website...

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Financial Analysis - Facebook Inc. operates a social networking website. The Company's website allows people to communicate with their family, friends, and coworkers

TRANSCRIPT

04.03.2013

Ticker: Facebook Inc Benchmark:

Currency: NASDAQ GS: FB, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)

Sector: Information Technology Industry: Internet Software & Services Year:

Telephone 1-650-308-7300 Revenue (M) Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M)

Website investor.fb.com No of Employees Advertising 4279 US & Canada 2520

Address 1601 Willow Road Menlo Park, CA 94025 United States Payments and Other Fees 810 Europe 1449

Share Price Performance in USD Asia 606

Price #N/A N/A 1M Return #VALUE! Rest of World 498

52 Week High #N/A N/A 6M Return #VALUE! Adjustments (Rounding) 16

52 Week Low #N/A N/A 52 Wk Return #VALUE!

52 Wk Beta #N/A N/A YTD Return #VALUE!

Credit Ratings

Bloomberg -

S&P - Date - Outlook -

Moody's - Date - Outlook -

Fitch - Date - Outlook -

Valuation Ratios

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

P/E - - - 2'662.0x - - -

EV/EBIT - - - 103.9x - - -

EV/EBITDA - - - 47.1x 17.2x 13.1x 10.1x

P/S - - - 10.5x 9.9x 7.8x 6.2x

P/B - - - 5.4x - - -

Div Yield - - - 0.0% - - -

Profitability Ratios %

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Gross Margin 71.3 75.0 76.8 73.2 73.8 73.9 74.4

EBITDA Margin 43.8 59.3 56.0 23.3 50.9 53.1 55.0

Operating Margin 33.7 52.3 47.3 10.6 33.6 36.2 37.6

Profit Margin 15.7 18.8 18.0 0.6 21.6 24.2 28.5

Return on Assets 15.1 18.2 14.3 0.3 8.7 9.8 13.2

Return on Equity 20.3 30.8 22.9 0.4 9.2 11.0 14.1

Leverage and Coverage Ratios

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12

Current Ratio - 5.8 5.1 10.7 Current Capitalization in USD

Quick Ratio - 5.5 5.0 9.8 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 2372.0

EBIT/Interest 26.2 46.9 41.8 10.5 Market Capitalization (M) #N/A N/A

Tot Debt/Capital - 0.2 0.1 0.2 Cash and ST Investments (M) 9626.0

Tot Debt/Equity - 0.2 0.1 0.2 Total Debt (M) 2356.0

Eff Tax Rate % 9.8 39.9 41.0 89.3 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0

LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0

Investments (M) 0.0

Enterprise Value (M)

Facebook Inc. operates a social networking website. The Company's website allows

people to communicate with their family, friends, and coworkers. Facebook develops

technologies that facilitate the sharing of information, photographs, website links, and

videos. Facebook users have the ability to share and restrict information based on their

own specific criteria.

FB UN

5'089

4'619

Company Analysis - Overview

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Facebook Inc

Target price in USD

Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date

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Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

04.03.2013

Facebook Inc

Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution

Shares Outstanding (M) 2372.0 United States 83.30%

Float 96.8% Britain 5.34%

Short Interest (M) 25.4 Unknown Country 4.71%

Short Interest as % of Float 1.11% Luxembourg 1.53%

Days to Cover Shorts 0.48 Japan 1.29%

Institutional Ownership 51.60% Switzerland 0.82%

Retail Ownership 46.03% Germany 0.60%

Insider Ownership 2.36% Others 2.42%

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Investment Advisor 76.43%

Hedge Fund Manager 12.06%

Individual 4.38%

Venture Capital 2.53%

Pricing data is in USD Others 4.61%

Top 20 Owners:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country

FMR LLC 77'644'473 37'380'569 4.61% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

CAPITAL GROUP COMPAN 39'095'420 15'722'220 2.32% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

MORGAN STANLEY 33'281'620 6'803'009 1.98% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

T ROWE PRICE ASSOCIA 33'193'967 13'789'661 1.97% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

SANDS CAPITAL MANAGE 26'797'536 9'685'751 1.59% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

VANGUARD GROUP INC 26'311'904 12'411'139 1.56% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

BLACKROCK 22'993'914 6'546'408 1.37% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

JENNISON ASSOCIATES 22'376'854 9'675'216 1.33% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

UBS 21'977'538 5'431'928 1.30% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG

WINSLOW CAPITAL MANA 21'263'110 21'263'110 1.26% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

BAILLIE GIFFORD AND 20'578'390 364'134 1.22% 31.12.2012 13F BRITAIN

WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN 20'370'317 20'370'317 1.21% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP 18'422'852 -20'142'720 1.09% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

INVESCO LTD 18'204'867 17'235'166 1.08% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL 18'122'565 17'425'168 1.08% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

SANDBERG SHERYL KARA 17'806'956 -176'452 1.06% 21.02.2013 Form 4 n/a

ELEVATION MANAGEMENT 16'989'027 16'989'027 1.01% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

MERITECH CAPITAL ASS 16'268'858 16'268'858 0.97% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGE 14'465'499 4'414'890 0.86% 31.01.2013 ULT-AGG GERMANY

MACKAY SHIELDS LLC 14'176'100 1'643'500 0.84% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

Top 5 Insiders:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source

SANDBERG SHERYL KARA 17'806'956 -176'452 1.06% 21.02.2013 Form 4

BREYER JAMES W 9'166'654 -3'000'000 0.54% 04.02.2013 Form 4

ANDREESSEN MARC LOWELL 6'842'256 15'344 0.41% 20.02.2013 Form 4

EBERSMAN DAVID A 2'263'500 35'519 0.13% 20.02.2013 Form 4

SCHROEPFER MICHAEL TODD 1'271'705 -55'000 0.08% 25.02.2013 Form 4

Company Analysis - Ownership

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Facebook Inc

Financial information is in USD (M)

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Income Statement

Revenue 153 272 777 1'974 3'711 5'089 6'678 8'435 10'561

- Cost of Goods Sold 41 124 223 493 860 1'364

Gross Income 112 148 554 1'481 2'851 3'725 4'928 6'235 7'853

- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 236 203 292 449 1'095 3'187

(Research & Dev Costs) 81 47 87 144 388 1'399

Operating Income -124 -55 262 1'032 1'756 538 2'245 3'049 3'974

- Interest Expense 10 22 42 51

- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)

- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 11 1 -2 2 19 -7

Pretax Income -135 -56 254 1'008 1'695 494 2'133 2'904 4'038

- Income Tax Expense 3 0 25 402 695 441

Income Before XO Items -138 -56 229 606 1'000 53

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax

- Minority Interests 107 234 332 21

Diluted EPS Before XO Items (0.16) (0.06) 0.10 0.28 0.46 0.01

Net Income Adjusted* 1'137 1'444 2'039 3'011

EPS Adjusted 0.52 0.57 0.78 1.07

Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Payout Ratio % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total Shares Outstanding 1'112 1'330 2'372

Diluted Shares Outstanding 1'366 1'414 1'508 2'166

EBITDA 340 1'171 2'079 1'187 3'400 4'480 5'808

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Equivalent Estimates

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

Fiscal Year

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Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Balance Sheet

Total Current Assets 2246 4604 11267

+ Cash & Near Cash Items 305 297 633 1'785 1'512 2'384

+ Short Term Investments 0 2'396 7'242

+ Accounts & Notes Receivable 373 547 719

+ Inventories 0 0 0

+ Other Current Assets 88 149 922

Total Long-Term Assets 82 131 148 744 1'727 3'836

+ Long Term Investments

Gross Fixed Assets 820 1'925 3'273

Accumulated Depreciation 246 450 882

+ Net Fixed Assets 82 131 148 574 1'475 2'391

+ Other Long Term Assets 170 252 1'445

Total Current Liabilities 389 899 1'052

+ Accounts Payable 29 63 65

+ Short Term Borrowings 106 279 365

+ Other Short Term Liabilities 254 557 622

Total Long Term Liabilities 439 533 2'296

+ Long Term Borrowings 367 398 1'991

+ Other Long Term Borrowings 72 135 305

Total Liabilities 828 1'432 3'348

+ Long Preferred Equity 615 615 0

+ Minority Interest 0

+ Share Capital & APIC 947 2'684 10'094

+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity 273 335 868 600 1'600 1'661

Total Shareholders Equity 273 335 868 2'162 4'899 11'755

Total Liabilities & Equity 2'990 6'331 15'103

Book Value Per Share 1.39 3.22 4.96 5.43 6.18 7.29

Tangible Book Value Per Share 1.22 3.04 4.37

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV

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Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Cash Flows

Net Income 122 372 668 32 898 1'377 2'311

+ Depreciation & Amortization 78 139 323 649

+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments 135 294 568 1'467

+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital -180 -107 -10 -536

Cash From Operating Activities 155 698 1'549 1'612

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets

+ Capital Expenditures -33 -293 -606 -1'235 -1'604 -1'714 -1'823

+ Increase in Investments 0 0 -3 -2

+ Decrease in Investments 0 0

+ Other Investing Activities -29 -31 -2'414 -5'787

Cash From Investing Activities -62 -324 -3'023 -7'024

+ Dividends Paid

+ Change in Short Term Borrowings 0 1'496

+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings 0 250 0 0

+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings 0 0 -250 0

+ Increase in Capital Stocks 260 621 1'459 7'810

+ Decrease in Capital Stocks

+ Other Financing Activities -17 -93 -8 -3'022

Cash From Financing Activities 243 778 1'201 6'284

Net Changes in Cash 336 1'152 -273 872

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 122 405 943 377 408 829 1'356

Free Cash Flow To Firm 131 418 968 382

Free Cash Flow To Equity 693 1'258

Free Cash Flow per Share 0.12 0.37 0.73 0.19

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV

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Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios

Price Earnings 2'662.0x

EV to EBIT 103.9x

EV to EBITDA 47.1x 17.2x 13.1x 10.1x

Price to Sales 10.5x 9.9x 7.8x 6.2x

Price to Book 5.4x

Dividend Yield 0.0%

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 73.2% 54.4% 71.3% 75.0% 76.8% 73.2% 73.8% 73.9% 74.4%

EBITDA Margin 43.8% 59.3% 56.0% 23.3% 50.9% 53.1% 55.0%

Operating Margin -81.0% -20.2% 33.7% 52.3% 47.3% 10.6% 33.6% 36.2% 37.6%

Profit Margin -90.2% -20.6% 15.7% 18.8% 18.0% 0.6% 21.6% 24.2% 28.5%

Return on Assets -11.8% 15.1% 18.2% 14.3% 0.3% 8.7% 9.8% 13.2%

Return on Equity -18.4% 20.3% 30.8% 22.9% 0.4% 9.2% 11.0% 14.1%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios

Current Ratio 5.77 5.12 10.71

Quick Ratio 5.55 4.96 9.83

Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 26.20 46.91 41.81 10.55

Tot Debt/Capital 0.18 0.12 0.17

Tot Debt/Equity 0.22 0.14 0.20

Others

Asset Turnover 0.57 0.96 0.96 0.80 0.47

Accounts Receivable Turnover 8.07 8.04

Accounts Payable Turnover 18.70 21.31

Inventory Turnover

Effective Tax Rate 9.8% 39.9% 41.0% 89.3%

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

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SecurityCRAIGSLIST YELP INC MICROSOFT CORP IAC/INTERACTIVEC APPLE INC YAHOO! INC EBAY INC AOL INC AMAZON.COM INC GROUPON INC

12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 - - - 12/2012 06/2012 12/2012 09/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012

- 814.47 - - - - - 32.95 55.57 705.07 22.62 57.27 39.75 284.72 19.21

- 04.03.2013 - - - - - 16.03.2012 16.10.2012 21.09.2012 04.03.2013 01.02.2013 19.02.2013 25.01.2013 05.03.2012

- 556.52 - - - - - 26.26 38.20 424.55 14.35 34.83 14.49 178.04 2.60

- 14.06.2012 - - - - - 05.12.2012 24.01.2013 04.03.2013 06.03.2012 06.03.2012 06.03.2012 06.03.2012 12.11.2012

0 872'724 0 0 - 0 0 6'245'098 175'767 5'380'198 10'465'454 2'539'774 204'422 732'834 11'541'690

- 813.71 - - - - - 27.79 40.76 424.68 22.36 54.59 37.09 268.84 5.24

- -0.1% - - - - - -15.7% -26.7% -39.8% -1.2% -4.7% -6.7% -5.6% -72.7%

- 46.2% - - - - - 5.8% 6.7% 0.0% 55.8% 56.7% 155.9% 51.0% 101.5%

2'372.0 330.0 - - - - - 8'381.0 87.6 939.2 1'182.7 1'294.0 76.6 454.0 656.9

- 269'449.8 - - - - - 232'734.0 3'434.5 398'800.1 26'439.6 70'776.6 2'860.1 122'201.5 3'436.0

2'356.0 5'537.0 - - - - - 11'944.0 595.8 - - 4'519.0 105.9 4'218.0 -

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- - - - - - - - 110.0 - 45.4 - 13.1 - (1.9)

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- 225'429.9 - - - - - 178'610.0 3'369.8 261'688.1 20'462.6 65'887.6 2'512.5 114'971.5 2'224.7

LFY 5'089.0 50'175.0 - - - - 137.6 73'723.0 2'800.9 156'508.0 4'986.6 14'072.0 2'191.7 61'093.0 2'334.5

LTM 5'089.0 51'379.0 - - - - 137.6 72'930.0 2'800.9 164'687.0 4'986.6 14'071.0 2'191.7 61'093.0 2'334.5

CY+1 6'677.7 49'451.2 - - - - 211.4 79'605.0 3'253.9 182'372.5 4'674.1 16'345.5 2'222.9 75'751.6 2'561.5

CY+2 8'434.7 57'163.0 - - - - 294.9 86'100.8 3'636.6 205'752.0 4'845.7 18'730.9 2'289.2 93'067.6 2'833.0

LFY 11.0x 3.8x - - - - 8.0x 2.3x 1.5x 2.2x 3.5x 4.3x 0.9x 1.7x 0.8x

LTM 11.0x 3.7x - - - - 8.0x 2.3x 1.5x 2.1x 3.5x 4.3x 0.9x 1.7x 0.8x

CY+1 8.5x 4.4x - - - - - 2.0x 0.9x 1.5x 4.6x 3.9x 1.1x 1.5x 0.8x

CY+2 6.6x 3.6x - - - - - 1.6x 0.8x 1.3x 4.2x 3.2x 0.8x 1.2x 0.6x

LFY 1'187.0 15'722.0 - - - - (10.3) 30'923.0 411.8 58'518.0 1'457.1 4'088.0 330.0 2'835.0 155.4

LTM 1'187.0 15'684.0 - - - - (10.3) 29'120.0 411.8 59'255.0 1'457.1 4'090.0 330.0 2'834.0 143.7

CY+1 3'400.1 22'087.3 - - - - 21.1 32'414.5 613.6 60'649.2 1'664.4 5'383.4 427.3 4'646.4 254.9

CY+2 4'479.8 25'944.5 - - - - 46.6 35'504.1 711.8 68'430.3 1'740.8 6'241.8 449.4 6'384.0 319.3

LFY 47.1x 12.0x - - - - -107.2x 5.5x 9.9x 5.8x 12.0x 14.9x 5.8x 37.6x 12.8x

LTM 47.1x 12.1x - - - - - 5.8x 9.9x 5.8x 12.0x 14.9x 5.8x 37.6x 13.8x

CY+1 16.7x 9.9x - - - - - 5.0x 5.0x 4.5x 12.9x 11.9x 5.6x 24.6x 7.8x

CY+2 12.4x 7.8x - - - - - 3.9x 3.9x 3.8x 11.7x 9.6x 4.3x 17.1x 5.2x

LFY 0.01 34.02 - - - - - 2.73 2.02 44.15 1.17 1.95 4.81 0.05 -0.03

LTM 0.02 33.74 - - - - - 2.56 2.04 44.10 1.17 1.94 4.64 0.36 -0.08

CY+1 0.57 45.71 - - - - 0.09 2.85 3.55 44.55 1.16 2.75 1.93 3.13 0.20

CY+2 0.78 53.86 - - - - 0.37 3.15 4.24 50.73 1.27 3.21 2.18 5.54 0.29

LFY - 24.1x - - - - - 10.9x 20.0x 9.6x 19.1x 28.1x 8.0x 746.8x -

LTM - 24.1x - - - - - 10.9x 20.0x 9.6x 19.1x 28.1x 8.0x 746.8x -

CY+1 - 17.8x - - - - - 9.7x 11.5x 9.5x 19.4x 19.8x 19.2x 85.9x 26.3x

CY+2 - 15.1x - - - - - 8.8x 9.6x 8.4x 17.6x 17.0x 17.0x 48.6x 18.1x

1 Year 37.1% 32.4% - - - - 65.2% 5.4% 36.0% 44.6% 0.0% 20.8% (0.5%) 27.1% 45.0%

5 Year - 24.7% - - - - - 5.7% 16.3% 41.5% (5.8%) 13.7% - 30.6% -

1 Year (42.9%) 15.7% - - - - 13.9% 3.3% 48.9% 64.4% (1.1%) 23.4% (2.5%) 45.8% -

5 Year - 21.0% - - - - - 9.1% 89.0% 65.4% 1.5% 9.4% (30.0%) 25.8% -

LTM 23.3% 30.5% - - - - (7.5%) 39.9% 14.7% 36.0% 29.2% 29.1% 15.1% 4.6% 6.2%

CY+1 50.9% 44.7% - - - - 10.0% 40.7% 18.9% 33.3% 35.6% 32.9% 19.2% 6.1% 10.0%

CY+2 53.1% 45.4% - - - - 15.8% 41.2% 19.6% 33.3% 35.9% 33.3% 19.6% 6.9% 11.3%

Total Debt / Equity % 20.0% 7.7% - - - - 0.0% 18.0% 36.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 5.0% 51.5% 0.0%

Total Debt / Capital % 16.7% 7.2% - - - - 0.0% 15.3% 25.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 4.7% 34.0% 0.0%

Total Debt / EBITDA 1.985x 0.353x - - - - - 0.487x 1.447x 0.000x 0.000x 1.105x 0.321x 1.488x 0.000x

Net Debt / EBITDA -6.125x -2.807x - - - - - -1.859x -0.424x -2.314x -4.133x -1.195x -1.093x -2.551x -8.416x

EBITDA / Int. Expense 23.275x 187.167x - - - - - 81.376x 50.928x - - 64.889x - 30.815x -

S&P LT Credit Rating - AA - - - - - AAA BB+ NR NR A - AA- -

S&P LT Credit Rating Date - 19.11.2012 - - - - - 22.09.2008 17.12.2012 16.04.2004 18.04.2008 02.03.2010 - 26.11.2012 -

Moody's LT Credit Rating - Aa2 - - - - - Aaa Ba3 WR - A2 - Baa1 -

Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - 16.05.2011 - - - - - 11.05.2009 21.08.2008 31.03.2004 - 21.10.2010 - 26.11.2012 -

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