experian automotive quarterly briefing...december 31, 2017 (u.s. light duty vehicles only) u.s....

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Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Fourth quarter 2017 automotive market share trends and registrations

Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager and Consultant

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Today’s presentation

What’s on the Road

VIO by model year, segment, age and market share

U.S. light duty vehicles through December 31, 2017

New vehicle statistics for calendar year 2017

Marty Miller

Senior Product Manager, VIO

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U.S. and Canada total Vehicles in Operation = 316.6M

Light Duty

Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans

Cars and GVW Class 1 – 3

Medium & Heavy Duty

Large Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses, RVs,

Cement Trucks, Semi-Tractors

GVW Class 4 - 8

Power Sports

Motorcycles, All-Terrain,

Utility Task, Snowmobiles

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What’s on the road today?

Light Duty Vehicles

Vehicles in Operation

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Source: Experian

Automotive as of

December 31, 2017

(U.S. light duty

vehicles only)

U.S. Vehicles In Operation – a 12 month view

Q4 2016

266millionVehicles on

the road

Q4 2017

271.4millionVehicles on

the road

17.1*

NEWVEHICLES

DEALER

42.7*

USEDVEHICLES

200*

NOCHANGES

11.7*EXIT

Out of Operation

*In millions;

U.S. totals include Puerto Rico

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U.S. VIO change by model year (in millions)Q4 2016 to Q4 2017

Current 20

Model Years

85.6% of VIO

Current 25

Model Years

94.4% of VIO

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)

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U.S. VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)

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U.S. VIO by manufacturer market share

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)

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U.S. VIO – drive wheel and cylinders market shares

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)

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U.S. VIO by Class and Vehicle Class Size

0.04%

10.84%

89.11%

Exotic

Luxury

Non-Luxury

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

VIO by Class

0.02%

3.37%

25.66%

26.67%

44.29%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Other

Sport

Full

Small

Mid-Size

VIO by Class Size

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)

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• 6 to 12 model year old vehicles

• Aged out of general OEM manufacturer warranties for any repairs

• Likely require more part replacement & services (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that may be performed by aftermarket service shops using parts from aftermarket part manufacturers

• Sizing the Sweet Spot helps identify overall market potential and changes can have implications to those that service it

The Aftermarket “Sweet Spot”

• 13 model years old & older

• Less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value

“Post Sweet Spot” vehicles

• 5 model years old & newer; many covered by the vehicle’s manufacturer warranty

• Identifies models coming into the Sweet Spot

“Pre Sweet Spot” vehicles

The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” overview“Post” and “Pre” Sweet Spot defined

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U.S. trend of total VIO compared to sweet spot volumesVIO by model year (in millions)

30.7% vehicles within

“Sweet Spot”

(MY2006 – 2012)Pre-Sweet

Spot

Post-Sweet

Spot

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)

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U.S. Sweet Spot vehicles – domestic vs import brands

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)

Pre-Sweet

Spot

Post-Sweet

Spot

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January – December 2017

Experian Stats – New and Used

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Total New and Used registrations

Source: Experian Automotive January-December 2017 (light duty vehicles only)

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New retail registrations by manufacturer and vehicle type

Other

Source: Experian Automotive January-December 2017 (light duty vehicles only)

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Luxury brand new retail registrations

Source: Experian Automotive January-December 2017 (light duty vehicles only)

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New retail registrations by state

Source: Experian Automotive January-December 2017 (light duty vehicles only)

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• Total light duty VIO continues to grow to 271.4 million in the U.S.

• VIO market share for GM and Ford continues to decline as older vehicles move out of operation

• Sweet Spot continues to decline, yet expected growth in 2018

• Calendar year 2017 new registrations

– Total New registrations are down 0.85% over 2016

– Crossovers, SUVs and wagons are the dominate vehicle type

– Luxury vehicle registrations over the last 5 years exceed VIO market

Summary

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