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© OECD/IEA 2017
Energy Efficiency 2017
Club Español de la Energia, Madrid, 30th October 2017
Samuel Thomas, Senior Analyst, Energy Efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2017
Free download: http://www.iea.org/efficiency
• 2016 confirmed the recent step up in
global energy efficiency gains
• This is generating economic, social and
environmental benefits
• But stronger policy implementation is
essential
© OECD/IEA 2017
The world is generating more value from its energy
This decade has seen intensity improvement rates at almost double the historic average, suggesting
that the world has entered a new era of faster intensity gains.
Changes in global energy intensity (energy per unit of GDP)
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1981-90 1991-2000 2001-10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ann
ual c
hang
e in
ene
rgy
inte
nsity
Average annual change 1981-2010 Average annual change 2011-2016
© OECD/IEA 2017
Efficiency delivers a global energy productivity bonus
The 2016 intensity improvement represents an additional USD 2.2 trillion of value created from global
energy use, equivalent to twice the size of the Australian economy.
Economic value of improved energy intensity, 2016 (USD billion)
32 260 114
532
1127
2174
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2016
impr
ovem
ent i
n en
ergy
inte
nsity
Japan European
Union
India United States China World
© OECD/IEA 2017
Energy-related CO2 emissions have been flat since 2014
IEA analysis shows that global energy-related CO2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a
row, even though the global economy grew
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016
Gt
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
© OECD/IEA 2017
28
30
32
34
36
2014 emissions GDP growth Renewables and fuelmix
Energy intensity 2016 emissions
Em
issi
ons
(Bill
ion
tonn
es C
O2e
)
Energy efficiency is helping to keep emissions down
Emissions would have been 2 billion tonnes higher in 2016 without the combination of energy
efficiency improvement and the move towards renewables and cleaner fuels.
Factors influencing greenhouse gas emissions, 2014-16
© OECD/IEA 2017
Energy efficiency has reduced global energy use
Efficiency in IEA member countries has reduced energy use to levels not seen since the 1990s.
Energy efficiency in the six major emerging economies avoided 13% more energy use.
Energy use with and without energy savings from efficiency improvements, 2016
0
40
80
120
160
2000 2016 2000 2016
IEA member countries Major emerging economies
EJ
Major emerging economies are the People’s Republic of China, India, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and the Russian Federation
Efficiency
savings
© OECD/IEA 2017
Spanish energy consumption and economic activity have decoupled
Spain has made significant progress on energy efficiency since 2005.
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
2000 TFC Activity Householdfactors
Economicstructure
Energyefficiency
2016 TFC
EJ
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
2000 2005 2010 2015TFC ActivityEconomic structure Household factorsEnergy efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2017
Energy consumers are making big savings
Efficiency improvements made since 2000 reduced energy spending in 2016.
German consumers saved nearly USD 50 billion on their annual home and travel energy costs.
Per capita household energy expenditure savings in 2016 due to efficiency
$60
$580 $470
$430 $370
$140
$60
Germany France United Kingdom
Japan United States
China Mexico 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% r
educ
tion
on e
negr
y ex
pend
iture
© OECD/IEA 2017
Import savings from improved efficiency
Without energy efficiency, Japan would need to import 20% more oil and gas.
This would cost nearly USD 20 billion
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0EJ
Gas imports
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0EJ
Oil imports
Reductions in energy imports in 2016 from efficiency improvements since 2000 in the largest IEA member country
importers
© OECD/IEA 2017
Efficiency improves short-term energy security
Without energy efficiency Germany’s N-1 indicator would be reduced to 128% and the United Kingdom
and France would not meet the standard
Historical peak daily gas demand and efficiency savings in selected European markets
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
Germany (2012) United Kingdom (2010) France (2012)
Dai
ly p
eak
gas
dem
and
(m
illio
n cu
bic
met
res
of g
as p
er d
ay)
Peak energyefficiency savings
Historic dailypeak demand(date)
N-1 supplyrequirement
© OECD/IEA 2017
Industrial energy intensity is falling
Between 2000 and 2016, energy productivity in the industry sector increased by 40%
in both IEA member countries and emerging economies.
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Inde
x (2
000
= 1
00)
IEA member countries
Energy use Gross value added Energy productivity
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Inde
x (2
000
= 1
00)
Major emerging economies
Industry energy intensity and productivity trends in IEA member countries and major emerging economies, 2000-16
Major emerging economies are the People’s Republic of China, India, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and the Russian Federation
© OECD/IEA 2017
Efficiency limits the impact of volatile energy prices
Efficiency has helped Japanese cement manufacturers to maintain their competitiveness.
Indices of energy prices, energy costs and output in the cement sector
50%
100%
150%
200%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Japan
50%
100%
150%
200%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
United Kingdom
© OECD/IEA 2017
Energy efficiency investment is growing
Energy efficiency investment grew 9% in 2016, with growth strongest in China.
The buildings sector continues to dominate global investment.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2016
USD billions By region
China Europe North America Other
58%
16%
26%
By sector
USD 231 billion
Buildings Transport
Industry
Energy efficiency investment by region and sector
© OECD/IEA 2017
Almost 32% of the world’s energy use is covered by codes and standards
As in the rest of Europe, policy coverage in the transport and industrial sectors is relatively low in Spain.
0%
20%
40%
60%
Residential Non-residential Industry Transport Total
Policy coverage
World
Spain
© OECD/IEA 2017
24% 26% 28% 30% 32%
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
% of global energy use covered by mandatory efficiency policies
Existing policies New policies
Policies of the past drive progress of today
The amount of global energy use covered by mandatory efficiency policies grew to nearly 32% in 2016.
We owe the efficiency gains of today to the policies of the past .
Annual additions to the global policy coverage of mandatory codes and standards
Existing policies New policies
© OECD/IEA 2017
Global progress has become reliant on pre-existing policies
The global Efficiency Policy Progress Index (EPPI) grew 0.5 percentage points 2016 to 6.3.
Progress was driven by pre-existing policies, not new policies.
New
policies
Existing
policies
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Contribution to the annual growth of the Efficiency Policy Progress Index, 2010-16
© OECD/IEA 2017
Policy progress varies across countries
The total index in 2016 was 6.3, meaning codes and standards implemented since 2000 are designed to
improve the minimum energy efficiency performance across the 16 countries by 6.3% relative to 2000.
IEA Efficiency Policy Progress Index (EPPI), 2000-16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016
2011-15
2000-10
© OECD/IEA 2017
Petrochemical Other
Transport
70
75
80
85
90
95
Oil
dem
and
(m
b/d
) Trucks drive global oil demand
Trucks were responsible for nearly 40% of the growth in global oil demand since 2000; they are the
fastest growing source of oil demand, in particular for diesel.
2000 2015 Increase by sector
Trucks
Cars
Other transport
© OECD/IEA 2017
Vehicle efficiency policy is two-speed
Nearly 40 countries have fuel efficiency standards for cars.
Only Canada, China, Japan and the United States have standards for trucks.
Efficiency standard coverage by transport end-use, 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Cars
Ene
rgy
use
cove
red
by fu
el e
ffici
ency
st
anda
rds
Trucks
Europe
Asia
North America
China
USA Japan Canada
© OECD/IEA 2017
Space cooling energy use growth
Space cooling will continue to be the fastest growing source of energy demand in buildings.
Efficiency policy is weakest in countries where demand is rising fastest.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ind
ex 1
99
0 =
10
0
Space cooling
Appliances and other equipment
Lighting
Water heating
Cooking
Space heating
Global energy consumption by building end-use, 1990-2050
© OECD/IEA 2017
Coverage and strength of energy utility obligations increased markedly over the past decade
The percentage of global final energy use covered by obligation programmes rose from 7% in 2005 to
19% in 2016. There was no increase between 2015 and 2016 owing to the lack of new programmes.
Coverage of energy utility obligations, 2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2005 2010 2015 2016
Sha
re o
f glo
bal t
otal
fina
l co
nsum
ptio
n (%
)
Other
Brazil
United States
China
EuropeanUnion
© OECD/IEA 2017
Energy management is key to system-wide measures
Take-up of energy management systems is growing, with ISO 50 001 most apparent in Europe.
Chinese companies favour a different energy management system GB/T 23331
2% 1%
12%
85%
Other
NorthAmerica
AsiaPacific
Europe
ISO 50001 certifications by region and country
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
Germany UnitedKingdom
France Italy India
ISO
500
01 c
ertif
ied
site
s
ISO
500
01 c
ertif
icat
es
Total number of certificates (left axis) Total number of certified sites (right axis)
© OECD/IEA 2017
Energy management systems do produce real benefits
Energy management systems can achieve energy and financial savings of over 10%, as well as non-
energy benefits such as better staff skills and improved management of other production inputs.
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
-Q4 -Q3 -Q2 -Q1 +Q1 +Q2 +Q3 +Q4 +Q5 +Q6 +Q7
% o
f tot
al e
nerg
y us
e
Energy savings
Pre-Superior Energy Performance Programme Post-Superior Energy Performance Programme
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
-Q4 -Q3 -Q2 -Q1 +Q1 +Q2 +Q3 +Q4 +Q5 +Q6 +Q7
% o
f tot
al e
nerg
y co
st
Cost savings
Verified average savings from ISO 50001 energy management system, United States
Source: LBNL (2015), Development of an Enhanced Payback Function for the Superior Energy Performance Program.
© OECD/IEA 2017
Concluding remarks
• Energy Efficiency 2017 shows the critical importance of energy efficiency to
economies, households, businesses and the environment.
• There has been a step up in efficiency gains in recent years, despite lower energy
prices, and this is having many positive impacts.
• Governments must renew their focus on policy implementation and attacking the
68% of energy use that is not covered by mandatory efficiency policies.
• Energy management is central to unlocking the system-wide efficiency gains
needed if deeper savings are to be made.
• The IEA is helping countries realise unmet energy efficiency potential by training
policy makers, facilitating knowledge sharing and providing policy advice.
© OECD/IEA 2017
www.iea.org
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