© OECD/IEA 2017

Energy Efficiency 2017

Club Español de la Energia, Madrid, 30th October 2017

Samuel Thomas, Senior Analyst, Energy Efficiency

© OECD/IEA 2017

Free download: http://www.iea.org/efficiency

• 2016 confirmed the recent step up in

global energy efficiency gains

• This is generating economic, social and

environmental benefits

• But stronger policy implementation is

essential

© OECD/IEA 2017

The world is generating more value from its energy

This decade has seen intensity improvement rates at almost double the historic average, suggesting

that the world has entered a new era of faster intensity gains.

Changes in global energy intensity (energy per unit of GDP)

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1981-90 1991-2000 2001-10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ann

ual c

hang

e in

ene

rgy

inte

nsity

Average annual change 1981-2010 Average annual change 2011-2016

© OECD/IEA 2017

Efficiency delivers a global energy productivity bonus

The 2016 intensity improvement represents an additional USD 2.2 trillion of value created from global

energy use, equivalent to twice the size of the Australian economy.

Economic value of improved energy intensity, 2016 (USD billion)

32 260 114

532

1127

2174

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2016

impr

ovem

ent i

n en

ergy

inte

nsity

Japan European

Union

India United States China World

© OECD/IEA 2017

Energy-related CO2 emissions have been flat since 2014

IEA analysis shows that global energy-related CO2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a

row, even though the global economy grew

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016

Gt

Global energy-related CO2 emissions

© OECD/IEA 2017

28

30

32

34

36

2014 emissions GDP growth Renewables and fuelmix

Energy intensity 2016 emissions

Em

issi

ons

(Bill

ion

tonn

es C

O2e

)

Energy efficiency is helping to keep emissions down

Emissions would have been 2 billion tonnes higher in 2016 without the combination of energy

efficiency improvement and the move towards renewables and cleaner fuels.

Factors influencing greenhouse gas emissions, 2014-16

© OECD/IEA 2017

Energy efficiency has reduced global energy use

Efficiency in IEA member countries has reduced energy use to levels not seen since the 1990s.

Energy efficiency in the six major emerging economies avoided 13% more energy use.

Energy use with and without energy savings from efficiency improvements, 2016

0

40

80

120

160

2000 2016 2000 2016

IEA member countries Major emerging economies

EJ

Major emerging economies are the People’s Republic of China, India, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and the Russian Federation

Efficiency

savings

© OECD/IEA 2017

Spanish energy consumption and economic activity have decoupled

Spain has made significant progress on energy efficiency since 2005.

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

2000 TFC Activity Householdfactors

Economicstructure

Energyefficiency

2016 TFC

EJ

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

2000 2005 2010 2015TFC ActivityEconomic structure Household factorsEnergy efficiency

© OECD/IEA 2017

Energy consumers are making big savings

Efficiency improvements made since 2000 reduced energy spending in 2016.

German consumers saved nearly USD 50 billion on their annual home and travel energy costs.

Per capita household energy expenditure savings in 2016 due to efficiency

$60

$580 $470

$430 $370

$140

$60

Germany France United Kingdom

Japan United States

China Mexico 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

% r

educ

tion

on e

negr

y ex

pend

iture

© OECD/IEA 2017

Import savings from improved efficiency

Without energy efficiency, Japan would need to import 20% more oil and gas.

This would cost nearly USD 20 billion

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0EJ

Gas imports

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0EJ

Oil imports

Reductions in energy imports in 2016 from efficiency improvements since 2000 in the largest IEA member country

importers

© OECD/IEA 2017

Efficiency improves short-term energy security

Without energy efficiency Germany’s N-1 indicator would be reduced to 128% and the United Kingdom

and France would not meet the standard

Historical peak daily gas demand and efficiency savings in selected European markets

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

Germany (2012) United Kingdom (2010) France (2012)

Dai

ly p

eak

gas

dem

and

(m

illio

n cu

bic

met

res

of g

as p

er d

ay)

Peak energyefficiency savings

Historic dailypeak demand(date)

N-1 supplyrequirement

© OECD/IEA 2017

Industrial energy intensity is falling

Between 2000 and 2016, energy productivity in the industry sector increased by 40%

in both IEA member countries and emerging economies.

60

100

140

180

220

260

300

340

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Inde

x (2

000

= 1

00)

IEA member countries

Energy use Gross value added Energy productivity

60

100

140

180

220

260

300

340

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Inde

x (2

000

= 1

00)

Major emerging economies

Industry energy intensity and productivity trends in IEA member countries and major emerging economies, 2000-16

Major emerging economies are the People’s Republic of China, India, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and the Russian Federation

© OECD/IEA 2017

Efficiency limits the impact of volatile energy prices

Efficiency has helped Japanese cement manufacturers to maintain their competitiveness.

Indices of energy prices, energy costs and output in the cement sector

50%

100%

150%

200%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Japan

50%

100%

150%

200%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

United Kingdom

© OECD/IEA 2017

Energy efficiency investment is growing

Energy efficiency investment grew 9% in 2016, with growth strongest in China.

The buildings sector continues to dominate global investment.

0

50

100

150

200

250

2015 2016

USD billions By region

China Europe North America Other

58%

16%

26%

By sector

USD 231 billion

Buildings Transport

Industry

Energy efficiency investment by region and sector

© OECD/IEA 2017

Almost 32% of the world’s energy use is covered by codes and standards

As in the rest of Europe, policy coverage in the transport and industrial sectors is relatively low in Spain.

0%

20%

40%

60%

Residential Non-residential Industry Transport Total

Policy coverage

World

Spain

© OECD/IEA 2017

24% 26% 28% 30% 32%

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

% of global energy use covered by mandatory efficiency policies

Existing policies New policies

Policies of the past drive progress of today

The amount of global energy use covered by mandatory efficiency policies grew to nearly 32% in 2016.

We owe the efficiency gains of today to the policies of the past .

Annual additions to the global policy coverage of mandatory codes and standards

Existing policies New policies

© OECD/IEA 2017

Global progress has become reliant on pre-existing policies

The global Efficiency Policy Progress Index (EPPI) grew 0.5 percentage points 2016 to 6.3.

Progress was driven by pre-existing policies, not new policies.

New

policies

Existing

policies

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Contribution to the annual growth of the Efficiency Policy Progress Index, 2010-16

© OECD/IEA 2017

Policy progress varies across countries

The total index in 2016 was 6.3, meaning codes and standards implemented since 2000 are designed to

improve the minimum energy efficiency performance across the 16 countries by 6.3% relative to 2000.

IEA Efficiency Policy Progress Index (EPPI), 2000-16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2016

2011-15

2000-10

© OECD/IEA 2017

Petrochemical Other

Transport

70

75

80

85

90

95

Oil

dem

and

(m

b/d

) Trucks drive global oil demand

Trucks were responsible for nearly 40% of the growth in global oil demand since 2000; they are the

fastest growing source of oil demand, in particular for diesel.

2000 2015 Increase by sector

Trucks

Cars

Other transport

© OECD/IEA 2017

Vehicle efficiency policy is two-speed

Nearly 40 countries have fuel efficiency standards for cars.

Only Canada, China, Japan and the United States have standards for trucks.

Efficiency standard coverage by transport end-use, 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Cars

Ene

rgy

use

cove

red

by fu

el e

ffici

ency

st

anda

rds

Trucks

Europe

Asia

North America

China

USA Japan Canada

© OECD/IEA 2017

Space cooling energy use growth

Space cooling will continue to be the fastest growing source of energy demand in buildings.

Efficiency policy is weakest in countries where demand is rising fastest.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ind

ex 1

99

0 =

10

0

Space cooling

Appliances and other equipment

Lighting

Water heating

Cooking

Space heating

Global energy consumption by building end-use, 1990-2050

© OECD/IEA 2017

Coverage and strength of energy utility obligations increased markedly over the past decade

The percentage of global final energy use covered by obligation programmes rose from 7% in 2005 to

19% in 2016. There was no increase between 2015 and 2016 owing to the lack of new programmes.

Coverage of energy utility obligations, 2016

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2005 2010 2015 2016

Sha

re o

f glo

bal t

otal

fina

l co

nsum

ptio

n (%

)

Other

Brazil

United States

China

EuropeanUnion

© OECD/IEA 2017

Energy management is key to system-wide measures

Take-up of energy management systems is growing, with ISO 50 001 most apparent in Europe.

Chinese companies favour a different energy management system GB/T 23331

2% 1%

12%

85%

Other

NorthAmerica

AsiaPacific

Europe

ISO 50001 certifications by region and country

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

Germany UnitedKingdom

France Italy India

ISO

500

01 c

ertif

ied

site

s

ISO

500

01 c

ertif

icat

es

Total number of certificates (left axis) Total number of certified sites (right axis)

© OECD/IEA 2017

Energy management systems do produce real benefits

Energy management systems can achieve energy and financial savings of over 10%, as well as non-

energy benefits such as better staff skills and improved management of other production inputs.

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

-Q4 -Q3 -Q2 -Q1 +Q1 +Q2 +Q3 +Q4 +Q5 +Q6 +Q7

% o

f tot

al e

nerg

y us

e

Energy savings

Pre-Superior Energy Performance Programme Post-Superior Energy Performance Programme

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

-Q4 -Q3 -Q2 -Q1 +Q1 +Q2 +Q3 +Q4 +Q5 +Q6 +Q7

% o

f tot

al e

nerg

y co

st

Cost savings

Verified average savings from ISO 50001 energy management system, United States

Source: LBNL (2015), Development of an Enhanced Payback Function for the Superior Energy Performance Program.

© OECD/IEA 2017

Concluding remarks

• Energy Efficiency 2017 shows the critical importance of energy efficiency to

economies, households, businesses and the environment.

• There has been a step up in efficiency gains in recent years, despite lower energy

prices, and this is having many positive impacts.

• Governments must renew their focus on policy implementation and attacking the

68% of energy use that is not covered by mandatory efficiency policies.

• Energy management is central to unlocking the system-wide efficiency gains

needed if deeper savings are to be made.

• The IEA is helping countries realise unmet energy efficiency potential by training

policy makers, facilitating knowledge sharing and providing policy advice.

© OECD/IEA 2017

www.iea.org