elections and voting behavior chapter 10 edwards, wattenberg, and lineberry government in america:...

Elections and Voting Elections and Voting BehaviorBehavior

Chapter 10Chapter 10

Edwards, Wattenberg, and LineberryEdwards, Wattenberg, and Lineberry

Government in America: People, Politics, and PolicyGovernment in America: People, Politics, and Policy

Fourteenth EditionFourteenth Edition

INCREASING SUFFRAGEINCREASING SUFFRAGE

15TH AMENDMENT=BLACKS15TH AMENDMENT=BLACKS

19TH AMENDMENT=WOMEN19TH AMENDMENT=WOMEN

24TH AMENDMENT=NON-TAXPAYERS24TH AMENDMENT=NON-TAXPAYERS

26TH AMENDMENT=18 TO 21 YEAR 26TH AMENDMENT=18 TO 21 YEAR OLDSOLDS

CH 8 SUM

THE TREND = MORE EDUCATION

STATE QUALIFICATIONSSTATE QUALIFICATIONS18, CITIZEN, RESIDENT, REGISTERED18, CITIZEN, RESIDENT, REGISTEREDID (PHOTO OR UTILITY BILL) AT ID (PHOTO OR UTILITY BILL) AT POLLS ?POLLS ?

CH 8 SUM

AMERICANS…AMERICANS…

LESS LIKELY TO VOTE THAN EUROPEANSLESS LIKELY TO VOTE THAN EUROPEANS

US HAS MORE ELECTIVE OFFICESUS HAS MORE ELECTIVE OFFICES

US COMPLEX REGISTRATION PROCESSUS COMPLEX REGISTRATION PROCESS

US POLITICAL PARTIES ARE WEAKERUS POLITICAL PARTIES ARE WEAKER

US LESS DAILY GOV’T INVOLVEMENTUS LESS DAILY GOV’T INVOLVEMENT

    Australia 95%

    Malta 94%

    Austria 92%

    Belgium 91%

    Italy 90%

    Luxembourg 90%

    Iceland 89%

    New Zealand 88%

    Denmark 87%

    Germany 86%

    Sweden 86%

    Greece 86%

    Venezuela 85%

    Czech Rep. 85%

    Brazil 83%

    Switzerland 54%

    Poland 51%

    Brazil 83%

    Netherlands 83%

    Costa Rica 81%

    Norway 81%

    Romania 81%

    Bulgaria 80%

    Israel 80%

    Portugal 79%

    Finland 78%

    Canada 76%

    France 76%

    U.K. 76%

    Ireland 74%

    Spain 73%

    Japan 71%

    Japan 71%

    Estonia 69%

    Hungary 66%

    Russia 61%

    India 58%

    U. S. 54%

    Switz 54%

    Poland 51%

INACTIVESINACTIVES (22%) (22%)

PAROCHIAL PARTICIPANTSPAROCHIAL PARTICIPANTS

COMMUNALISTSCOMMUNALISTS

VOTING SPECIALISTSVOTING SPECIALISTS

CAMPAIGNERSCAMPAIGNERS

COMPLETE ACTIVISTSCOMPLETE ACTIVISTS (11%) (11%)

MORE EDUCATEDMORE EDUCATED

HIGHER INCOMEHIGHER INCOME

UNION MEMBERSHIPUNION MEMBERSHIP

POLITICALLY AFFILIATEDPOLITICALLY AFFILIATED

CIVIC INVOLVEMENTCIVIC INVOLVEMENT

OLDEROLDER

MARRIEDMARRIED

RELIGIOUSRELIGIOUS

LACK OF POLITICAL EFFICACYLACK OF POLITICAL EFFICACY

““INTERNAL” AND/OR “EXTERNAL”INTERNAL” AND/OR “EXTERNAL”

LACK OF MOTIVATIONLACK OF MOTIVATION

UNINSPIRING CANDIDATESUNINSPIRING CANDIDATES

NO REALIGNING ISSUESNO REALIGNING ISSUES

AKA “CRITICAL ELECTIONS”AKA “CRITICAL ELECTIONS”

““BUSY”BUSY”

Figure 13.2- Why People Don’t VoteFigure 13.2- Why People Don’t Vote

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Voters lining up outside a Baghdad polling station during the 2005 Iraqi election.Voters lining up outside a Baghdad polling station during the 2005 Iraqi election.

Voter turnout was considered high despite widespread concerns of violence.Voter turnout was considered high despite widespread concerns of violence.

WOMEN VOTING IN AFGHANISTAN WOMEN VOTING IN AFGHANISTAN

““BALLOT CONFUSION” ??BALLOT CONFUSION” ??

SOUTH AFRICANS WAITINGSOUTH AFRICANS WAITINGTO VOTE FOR THE FIRST TIME (1994)TO VOTE FOR THE FIRST TIME (1994)

12 HOURS OF LATER12 HOURS OF LATER

Ways to Improve Voter TurnoutWays to Improve Voter Turnout

Make registration and absentee voting easier.Make registration and absentee voting easier.

Make Election Day a holiday.Make Election Day a holiday.

Strengthen political parties.Strengthen political parties.

Start HereStart Here

on on

ThursdayThursday

The Last Battle: The Last Battle: The Electoral CollegeThe Electoral College

Electoral college actually elects POTUSElectoral college actually elects POTUS

States (political parties) choose the electorsStates (political parties) choose the electors

Winner-Take-AllWinner-Take-All system system

Emphasizes more populated statesEmphasizes more populated states

How the Electoral College worksHow the Electoral College works

Each state has as many votes as it does Each state has as many votes as it does Representatives and Senators.Representatives and Senators.

Winner of popular vote typically gets all the Winner of popular vote typically gets all the Electoral College votes for that stateElectoral College votes for that state

If no candidate gets a majority (270 votes)…If no candidate gets a majority (270 votes)…

House of Representatives votes for presidentHouse of Representatives votes for president

(Each state gets one vote)(Each state gets one vote)

Elections and the Scope of GovernmentElections and the Scope of Government

Federal Gov’t does more now because…Federal Gov’t does more now because…

Elections gives power to ‘winners’Elections gives power to ‘winners’

‘‘Winners’ sent to DC to accomplish somethingWinners’ sent to DC to accomplish something

Thus, gov’t expands to fill the needs of the votersThus, gov’t expands to fill the needs of the voters

Patterns in Vote ChoicePatterns in Vote Choice

Ticket-splittingTicket-splitting has increased. has increased.

Race: minorities largely vote for Democrats.Race: minorities largely vote for Democrats.

Gender: men usually vote for Republicans.Gender: men usually vote for Republicans.

Income: poor typically vote for Democrats.Income: poor typically vote for Democrats.

Ideology: Conservatives largely vote for Republicans.Ideology: Conservatives largely vote for Republicans.

Issues: Issues: prospectiveprospective and and retrospective judgmentsretrospective judgments..

AV- Turnout of Eligible VotersAV- Turnout of Eligible Voters

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Figure 13.1- South v. Non-SouthFigure 13.1- South v. Non-South

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Figure 13.3- Registered VotersFigure 13.3- Registered Voters

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Figure 13.5- Electoral College 2008Figure 13.5- Electoral College 2008

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2008 2000

McCain 47.2 Bush 49.9

Obama 51.2 Gore 46.4

2004 1996

Bush 50.8 Dole 41

Kerry 48.7

1996 Dole41Clinton47.3D 1996 Dole41Clinton47.3D +6.32000 Bush49.9R +6.32000 Bush49.9R +3.5Gore46.42004 Bush50.8+3.5Gore46.42004 Bush50.8R R +2.1Kerry48.72008 McCain4+2.1Kerry48.72008 McCain47.2Obama51.2D 7.2Obama51.2D +4.02012 Romney47.7Obam+4.02012 Romney47.7Obama50.7D a50.7D +3.0AvgRep47.32Dem48.86+3.0AvgRep47.32Dem48.86D +1.54D +1.54 Clinton 47.3

1996  

Dole 41

Clinton 47.3 D +6.3

2000  

Bush 49.9 R +3.5

Gore 46.4

2004  

Bush 50.8 R +2.1

Kerry 48.7

2008  

McCain 47.2

Obama 51.2 D +4.0

2012  

Romney 47.7

Obama 50.7 D +3.0

Avg

Rep 47.32

Dem 48.86 D +1.54

Figure 13.6- GerrymanderingFigure 13.6- Gerrymandering

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Gerrymander “art”Gerrymander “art”

http://rangevoting.org/GerryGal.htmlhttp://rangevoting.org/GerryGal.html

http://www.redistrictinggame.org/

Figure 13.7- Electronic Voting MachinesFigure 13.7- Electronic Voting Machines

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SummarySummaryVoters make two basic decisions at election time:Voters make two basic decisions at election time:

1-Whether to vote1-Whether to vote2-Who to vote for2-Who to vote for

How important are demographics ?How important are demographics ?Voter Demographics = Stereotyping?Voter Demographics = Stereotyping?

Does this influence campaigns? Policies?Does this influence campaigns? Policies?

Elections are fundamental to a democracy.Elections are fundamental to a democracy.

Elections and Voting Elections and Voting BehaviorBehavior

Chapter 10Chapter 10

Edwards, Wattenberg, and LineberryEdwards, Wattenberg, and Lineberry

Government in America: People, Politics, and PolicyGovernment in America: People, Politics, and Policy

Fourteenth EditionFourteenth Edition

How American Elections WorkHow American Elections WorkTypes of elections:Types of elections:

Primary electionsPrimary elections

Party selection of nomineesParty selection of nominees

General electionsGeneral elections

Select candidate to hold officeSelect candidate to hold office

ReferendumReferendum

State/local -level method of rejecting legislationState/local -level method of rejecting legislation

Initiative Initiative

State/local -level method of proposing legislationState/local -level method of proposing legislation

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First ChoiceWhether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice

SuffrageSuffrage: the legal right to vote: the legal right to vote

Extended to African Americans by the Extended to African Americans by the 1515thth Amend Amend

Extended to Women by the Extended to Women by the 1919thth Amendment Amendment

Extended to people over 18 by the Extended to people over 18 by the 2626thth Amendment Amendment

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First ChoiceWhether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice

U.S. has low voter turnoutU.S. has low voter turnout

Political EfficacyPolitical Efficacy = political participation really matters = political participation really matters

Civic DutyCivic Duty = a citizen should always vote = a citizen should always vote

From Government in America, 13th edition.

Registering To VoteRegistering To Vote

Voter RegistrationVoter Registration

Required in order to vote system Required in order to vote system

Must be initiated by the voterMust be initiated by the voter

Registration procedures differ by stateRegistration procedures differ by state

Motor Voter ActMotor Voter Act (1993) (1993)

Voter ID laws (2009 to present)Voter ID laws (2009 to present)

Candidates want a good Candidates want a good visual & public imagevisual & public image..

PersonalityPersonality plays a role in voter choice plays a role in voter choice

How Americans Vote:How Americans Vote:Explaining Citizens’ DecisionsExplaining Citizens’ Decisions

Party IdentificationParty Identification

More More split-ticket voting since late 1960’ssplit-ticket voting since late 1960’s

More independentsMore independents(so-called (so-called floating votersfloating voters))

How Americans Vote:How Americans Vote:Explaining Citizens’ DecisionsExplaining Citizens’ Decisions

How Americans Vote:How Americans Vote:Explaining Citizens’ DecisionsExplaining Citizens’ Decisions

Mandate Theory of Elections*Mandate Theory of Elections*

The idea that the winning candidate has The idea that the winning candidate has approval from the people to carry out platformapproval from the people to carry out platform

Policy VotingPolicy Voting

Basing your vote choice on issue preferences and Basing your vote choice on issue preferences and where the candidates stand on policy issueswhere the candidates stand on policy issues

But…But…

Candidates can be ambiguous on the issuesCandidates can be ambiguous on the issues

Voters may not know candidates stance on issuesVoters may not know candidates stance on issues

Understanding Elections and Voting BehaviorUnderstanding Elections and Voting Behavior

Retrospective votingRetrospective voting Votes based on what a candidate has done latelyVotes based on what a candidate has done lately

Those who feel worse-likely to vote against incumbents.Those who feel worse-likely to vote against incumbents.

Bad economies make politicians nervous.Bad economies make politicians nervous.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

WILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL WILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATIONPARTICIPATION

IMPORTANT TERMSIMPORTANT TERMSACTIVISTACTIVIST

AUSTRALIAN BALLOTAUSTRALIAN BALLOT

CAMPAIGNERSCAMPAIGNERS

COMMUNALISTSCOMMUNALISTS

COMPLETE ACTIVISTSCOMPLETE ACTIVISTS

ELIGIBLE ELECTORATEELIGIBLE ELECTORATE

FIFTEENTH AMENDMENTFIFTEENTH AMENDMENT

GRANDFATHER CLAUSESGRANDFATHER CLAUSESINACTIVESINACTIVESLITERACY TESTLITERACY TESTMOTOR-VOTER BILLMOTOR-VOTER BILLNINETEENTH AMENDMENTNINETEENTH AMENDMENTPAROCHIAL PARTICIPANTSPAROCHIAL PARTICIPANTSPOLL TAXPOLL TAXREGISTERED VOTERSREGISTERED VOTERS

WILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATIONWILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATIONIMPORTANT TERMSIMPORTANT TERMS

TWENTY-SIXTH AMENDMENTTWENTY-SIXTH AMENDMENT

TWENTY-THIRD AMENDMENTTWENTY-THIRD AMENDMENT

VOTER APATHYVOTER APATHY

VOTING RIGHTS ACT OF 1970VOTING RIGHTS ACT OF 1970

VOTING-AGE POPULATIONVOTING-AGE POPULATION

VOTING SPECIALISTSVOTING SPECIALISTS

WHITE PRIMARIESWHITE PRIMARIES

WILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATIONWILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATIONIMPORTANT TERMSIMPORTANT TERMS

WILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL WILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATIONPARTICIPATION

QUESTIONSQUESTIONS

1-IS VOTER PARTICIPATION 1-IS VOTER PARTICIPATION LOWER IN THE USA THAN IN LOWER IN THE USA THAN IN EUROPEAN CONTRIES? EUROPEAN CONTRIES? EXPLAIN YOUR ANSWER.EXPLAIN YOUR ANSWER.

2-WHAT HAVE BEEN THE 2-WHAT HAVE BEEN THE POLICY CONSEQUENCES OF A POLICY CONSEQUENCES OF A BROADER ELECTORATE.BROADER ELECTORATE.

3-WHAT COULD BE DONE TO 3-WHAT COULD BE DONE TO INCREASE VOTER TURNOUT?INCREASE VOTER TURNOUT?

4-WHAT SORTS OF PEOPLE ARE 4-WHAT SORTS OF PEOPLE ARE OVERREPRESENTED ANOUNG THOSE OVERREPRESENTED ANOUNG THOSE WHO PARTICIPATE A GREAT DEAL? WHO PARTICIPATE A GREAT DEAL? DOE THIS BIAS THE POLICIES THE DOE THIS BIAS THE POLICIES THE GOVERNMENT WILL ADOPT? IF SO, GOVERNMENT WILL ADOPT? IF SO, WHICH ONES?WHICH ONES?

WILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATIONWILSON CH. 6 - POLITICAL PARTICIPATIONQUESTIONSQUESTIONS