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Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation:ESPA Deltas
A Case Study in Sustainability Science in Coastal Bangladesh
Craig HuttonAttila N. Lázár, Robert J. Nicholls,
University of Southampton
cwh@geodatasoton.ac.uk
Photos: Craig Hutton
www.espadeltas.net
Thoughts……• Sustainable Science is a method…. so we need to
define these methods. • This method should be applied to achieving
defined goals (SDG) – what are they?• We need use socially inclusive methods to study a
system – A “socio-environmental” system which impacts a wide range of inter-connective issues
• Science does not make policy - we as social and biophysical scientists offer high quality, relevant information to support policy formulation by those who do – we serve
2
Defining the Objectives & Method
3
Characteristics of Sustainability Science (SSEI): Equity Poverty Mapping/Q&Q/PRA
• Poverty focus • Broader definition of welfare • Reconciliation with the nature
Stakeholder centred PRA/network theory• Inclusion of community perspective• Socio-cultural value driven • Partnership • Capacity Building & learning
Supporting decision making Policy sensitivity analysis/What if? Scenario dev.• Policy development through Scenario/ • Handling Uncertainty/adaptive management• Opportunity for exploration of policy• Sustainable technology• Transferability • Trade off
Integrated (Env /Socio-eco/Gov) Process driven/statistical/weighted/Systems• Systems approach• Indicator development /adaptive management• Addressing complexity
Threatened DeltasPopulation potentially displaced by current sea-level trends to 2050
Source: IPCC AR4 using data in Ericson et al. (2006)
1 millionmillion to 50,000 50,000 to 5,000
Deltas are sinking:
Pink areas are below sea level
Nile
CSDMSCSDMS
Ganges
Mississippi
Mekong
Euphrates
Yellow
Indus
Mahakam
Vistula
Height above sea leveldark green < 5 mlight green < 3 mpale green < 1m
100 km
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ESPA DELTA:Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And
Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas
8
The ESPA Deltas project (http://www.espadeltas.net/)
(2012-16)
Overarching aim:to provide policy makers with the knowledge and tools to enable them to evaluate the effects of policy decisions on people's livelihoodsEPSA Consortium GrantUniversity of Southampton (Nicholls PI)University of OxfordExeter UniversityDundee UniversityHadley CentrePlymouth Marine LaboratoriesNational Oceanography Centre (Liverpool)Plus 10 Bangladeshi partners (BUET lead)2 Indian partners (JU, ITTK)1 Chinese partner (ECNU)
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The study area
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Issues identified by Stakeholders(raised by stakeholders during stakeholder meetings)
• What is the likely effect of upstream activities on the livelihood, environment and river flows of Bangladesh (present/future)?
• How is soil salinity affected by climate change and (local/upstream)
land use in coastal Bangladesh? Can this be mitigated by growing different crops?
• How can we increase agricultural yield under climate change?
• How does shrimp farming impact livelihoods and the environment?
based on the work of Michelle Lim, Andrew Allan (Univ. of Dundee) and Nabiul Islam (BIDS )
11
Bio-physical environment
Demographics Macroeconomics Governance
• Climate change:- SLR & Sinking- Rain/Temperature
seasonality- Salinity vs. crops- Extreme weather(storm surge/cyclone)
• River diversions & dams
• Effect of shrimp farming
• Use of dykes (flooding, sedimentation)
• Arsenic
• Poverty / Changes in livelihoods
• Food security• Increasing
population• Migration• Right & Access to
land
• GDP• Food price• Tourist
attractions?
• Protected areas• Subsidies for
farmers / Resources
• Competing legislations
• Implementation• Participation/
Enforcement• Transport routes
(roads, trains, waterways)
Key issues under consideration
based on the work of Michelle Lim, Andrew Allan (Univ. of Dundee), Nabiul Islam (BIDS ) and Helen Adams (Univ. of Exeter)
12
Preliminary conceptualisation
Demographics
Shrimp farming
Agriculture
Fisheries
Mangrove
Social behaviour
13
Selection of potential bio-physical models
climate
catchment
delta
other
Social-Economic
ModFlow POLCOMs-ERSEM
FVCOM (coast)
FVCOM (river)
Spatial scale
Tem
pora
l sca
le
1m 10m 1km 10km 100 km
1hr
1d1m
o1y
r10
0 yr
HadCM3
GWAVA
PRECIS
CAESARINCAHydroTrend
FVCOM (marine)
MAXTENT
CropWat
Mangrove
AquaCrop
Fishery
Cons: • simplification • boundary condition
changes
Model integration
Social economic
model
Delta model(s)
Fisheries model
Hydrological model(s)
Agriculture model
Mangrove model
Climate model
Option 1: Chain of models Option 2: Chain of models &Bayesian emulators
Pros: • existing models• process understanding• calibrated models are
needed anyway
Cons: • slow running time• no feedback
Pros: • quick running time• dynamic feedback• estimated
uncertainty
Social economic
model
Delta model(s)
Fisheries emulator
Hydrological emulator(s)
Agriculture emulator
Mangrove emulator
Climate model
- fishing regulation
15
Systems dynamics approach
Social model:• Population growth• Employment/Income• Loans• Migration• Access to ES• Social relations• Health
FVCOMCoastal
fisheries
Cropwat/AquaCrop
Mangrove
A dynamic chain of ‘emulators’ and ‘simulators’storm /
cyclone / flooding events
Climate time series
GWAVA INCA/Hydrotrend(Sed, N, P )
Salinity model
Inland fisheries
Mac
roec
onom
ics:
•M
arke
t pric
e•
Tour
ist a
ttra
ctio
ns ?
•GD
P ?
- upstream flow modification- wq regulations- flood defence
- fertiliser subsidies
- protection- access rights
Shrimp farming
- regulation on land conversion- subsidies
Governance can act at different points
- support for shelters
- education- support for families- loan schemes
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Case study: A VenSim framework for crop production
- large land owners- small land owners- sharecroppers- landless labourers
- commercial- subsistence
up to 10 crops
- house- livestock- vehicle- other
- financial- env. hazards
- low interest rate- high interest rate
- 17 age groups
CROPWAT model
Dynamic Data Exchange
Welfare
What Will ESPA Deltas Produce?
• An integrated dynamic model of the current delta front that can be interacted with by policy makers
• Production of scenarios of plausible futures based upon simulated interventions which address Socio-environmental impacts
• Develop Policy Sensitivity process
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Suggestion: For a project or action to fall within the realms of Sustainability Science it should pass certain criteria:
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• Sustainability Development Goals
• Objectives (Sustainability)
• Method (Science)
APSSN• The project would greatly appreciate the opportunity to be
formalised as case study within this UNESCO lead process -• Establish a Asian Pacific Sustainability Science Network which
allows: i) Establishment of SuSci Objective and Methodsii) Development of a baseline of understanding of the inter-
relationship between Society, Environment & Governance based upon a selected best practice
iii) Stakeholder profile exchange between network membersiv) Suggest UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Sites, World Heritage
Sites, HELP, (linking to and building on experience ofSustainability Science Global meta-network )
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