economic trends shaping the future of hiring mariano mamertino, economist, indeed hiring lab

Economic Trends Shaping the Future of HiringMariano Mamertino, Economist, Indeed Hiring Lab

Economist Dublin

Increasingly talent-driven economy

Integrating the unemployed

Two-tier labor market

1

2

3

4

5

6

6 Key Trends

Talent is on the move

Hidden pockets of talent

Search behavior and preferencesbridge generations

1. Increasingly talent-driven economy

A stronger EU economy

GDP Quarterly Index GDP Quarterly IndexGDP Growth Rate

q-o-q%

105

100

-2

-3

20082007 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016

95

2012

Index, 2007 = 100

forecast

0

-1

1

Source: European Commission Economic Forecast, Spring 2015

1.8

2.1

Economic confidence picking up

Source: European Commission

120

100

80

6020062005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Eurozone economic confidence jumps in September

Lower EU unemployment

Source: Eurostat

14%

8%

6%

4%20072006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

10%

12%

EU28 Euro area Germany France Italy United Kingdom

Unemployment rate, EU and selected countries (seasonally adjusted)

But also lower labor force participation

Source: Eurofound

85

EL HR IT ES BG MT SK RM PL HU IE BE PT CY EA18 SI EU28 FR LV LT LU CZ FI EE NL DK

UK AT DE SE

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

2008 Q2 2011 Q2 2014 Q2

EU28 employment rates for 20-64 year olds

2. Integrating the unemployed

Different outcomes across countries

Source: Eurostat

Unemployment rate, June 2015 (seasonally adjusted)

And disproportionately affecting the young

Source: Eurostat

GermanyLatvia

Netherlands

Estonia

Slovenia

DenmarkAustria

Greece

Lithuania

Ireland

EU28

Spain

Cyprus

FinlandSlovakia

Malta

Sweden

France

Hungary

Portugal

BelgiumUnited Kingdom

Poland

Croatia

Luxembourg

Romania

Ireland

Bulgaria

Czech Republic

Youth (15-24) vs. overall unemployment (ratio)

1 41.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Italy

But unemployment is lasting longer

Source: Eurostat

Unemployment by duration, % of total unemployed

30

<1 1-3 6-12 12-18 18-24 24-48 >483-6

20

10

0

Short-term unemployed Long-term unemployed

2009 2014

European Union total

3. Two-tier labor market

College education rates are rising worldwide

Source: Eurostat

40%

30%

20%

10%

Lexembourg SwedenUnitedKingdom

Ireland Finland Belgium AustriaSpain France

Denmar

k EU15 ItalyGreece Germany

Portuga

l

Population aged 16-64 with tertiary education (%)

1995 2014

0%

High-skill workers are increasingly in control

Source: Eurostat

Unemployment rate by level of education attainment, EU28

25%

20%

15%

0%20062005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

10%

5%

Tertiary Upper secondary No education, primary and lower secondary All levels

Jobseeker interest in high-demand fields is growing

Source: Indeed Data

DigitalMarketing

HealthcareAdministration

JavaDeveloper

WebDeveloper

AthleticTrainer

InformationTechnology

TalentAcquisition

DataAnalyst

NetworkEngineer

InstructionalDesigner

30%22%20%13% 15% 17%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

More specialised often means more globalised

Source: Indeed Data

Clicks from jobseekers abroad as % total clicks

Italy Great BritainNetherlands Germany France Spain Ireland

All jobs Computer and mathematical

4. Talent is on the move

Talent is on the move and headed to EU

9% 70%of people search for jobs outside of their current

country

People are willing to relocate for the right opportunity

Source: Indeed Data

of clicks on our European websites come from within the EU

Top 10 most desirable countries

Source: Indeed Data

1

2

3

6

4

5

78

9

10

United States

United Kingdom

India

Japan

Germany

Italy

France

Canada

BrazilSouth Africa

Italy

United Kingdom

Germany

Switzerland

United Kingdom

United States

Ireland

India

All traffic flows

France

United Kingdom

United States

Italy

United Kingdom

Poland

India

United States

Java flows

Italy

United Kingdom

United States

Germany

Skilled workers search far and wide

Germany

United Kingdom

Poland

India

Germany

Austria

United Kingdom

Switzerland

France

United Kingdom

United States

Belgium

5. Hidden pockets of talent

Recent graduates

Source: Eurostat*share of employed graduates (20 to 34 years old) having left education and training in the past one to three years

82

78

74

7020072006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

72

76

80

Employment rate of recent graduates, EU28 (%) 2006-2014*

The rise of self-employment

Source: Eurostat

140

120

100

80

160

19961995 1997 19991998 2000 20022001 2003 20052004 2006 2007 2008 20102009 2011 20132012 2014

Germany France Italy Netherlands United Kingdom

Self-employment as a share of population aged 16-64

Increasing jobseekers’ interest for the gig economy

Source: Indeed Data

2013 -

01

2013-

07

2014-

01

2014-

07

2015-

01

2015-

07

Searches for gig jobs has increased dramatically over the past 2 years

Sh

are

of

all

job

searc

hes

Workers are getting older

Source: United Nations Population Division

20%

15%

10%

5%

25%

19551950 1960 19701965 1975 19851980 1990 20001995 2005 2010 2015 20252020 2030 20402035 2045

Share of population aged 65+ in Europe

Demography: a challenge and an opportunity

Source: European Commission, The Economist*Forecast †20-64 year olds

2013 2030

30

15

0

45

Italy PortugalGermany Sweden

Finlan

d EU28 France

0.6 8.1 -1.3

-

12.1

-

12.7-

6.2-0.9

Spain

Great

BritainNetherlan

ds Ireland

2.3

-

11.3 -4.7

-7.4

Old-age dependency ration %

% change in working population† 2013-30*

Older workers are already working until later in life

Source: Eurostat

11%

10%

9%

8%

12%

Employment rates of 65-69 year-olds, EU28 (%)

20042003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Increasing preference for flexibilityWorldwide, job searches for flexible work increased 38% over two years

Source: Indeed Hiring Lab

Germany France Italy Netherlands United Kingdom Portugal Spain

6. Job seeker behavior and preferences bridge generations

73.4% 71.3% 48.5%

Millennials Baby BoomerGeneration X

Mobile job search isn’t just a millennial habitShare of clicks that come from a mobile device

Source: Indeed Hiring Lab

Generational differences in job search are overhyped

Source: Indeed Hiring Lab

Baby Boomers Millennials Gen Xers

Less interest from millennials More interest from millennials

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance

Transportation and Material Moving

Production

Arts, Design and Entertainment

Business and Financial Operations

Sales and Related

Office and Administrative

0 102 4 6 8 12 14 150 5 10 20 25

And the same goes for gig jobs

Baby Boomers (Age 51-70)

Gen Xers (Age 31-50)

182.0

169.2

Millenials (Age 21-30)

158.7

0 50 100 150 200

Source: Indeed Hiring Lab

Increasingly talent-driven economy

Integrating the unemployed

Two-tier labor market

1

2

3

4

5

6

Talent is on the move

Hidden pockets of talent

Search behavior and jobseekers’ preferences bridge generations

6 Key Trends

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Q&A

Economic Trends Shaping the Future of HiringMariano Mamertino, Economist, Indeed Hiring Lab