eastern carver county schools school board presentation 2013
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EASTERN CARVER COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSHazel H. ReinhardtDecember 12, 2013
SUMMARYProjected enrollment
Single-family detached housing units projected to increase by 2,047 units in the next five years This large increase in housing units creates a divergence
in projections made via the cohort survival method and the housing unit method. In 2018-19: 3,809 total K-5 enrollment projected by the cohort model
Reflects the decline in district births and current survival rates
4,606 resident K-5 enrollment via housing starts method Attendance area specific yields for new units and
turnover
SUMMARYImmediate effect of the increase in housing
units on middle school and high school enrollments is relatively small. Most of the effect will come when the elementary students “age” into middle school after 2018-19 and into high school in the 2020s
Eastern Carver County Public School District characterized by a large loss of students through the public options of open enrollment and charter schoolsNet loss of about 1,000 students
TOTAL ENROLLMENT HISTORYK-12 TOTAL ENROLLMENT
2004-05 8,091
2005-06 8,397
2006-07 8,585
2007-08 8,662
2008-09 8,630
2009-10 8,838
2010-11 8,908
2011-12 8,976
2012-13 9,179
2013-14 9,246Excludes Early Childhood but includes the ALC
COMPONENTS OF ENROLLMENT CHANGE
Fall to FallTotal Natural
Increase/Decrease
NetMigration# %
2004 to 2005 306 3.8 138 168
2005 to 2006 188 2.2 66 122
2006 to 2007 77 0.9 2 75
2007 to 2008 -32 0.4 -35 3
2008 to 2009 208 2.4 81 127
2009 to 2010 70 0.8 23 47
2010 to 2011 68 0.8 -22 90
2011 to 2012 203 2.3 45 158
2012 to 2013 67 0.7 4 63
TOTAL ENROLLMENTGrad
e2003-
042004-
052005-
062006-
072007-
082008-
092009-
102010-
112011-
122012-
13
K 639 664 681 605 597 672 645 605 655 678
1 668
2 671
3 673
4 727
5 670
6 695
7 727
8 706
9 807
10 748
11 781
12 695
Total
9,246
AVERAGE CLASS SIZE“Average” class size
• 681 K-5• 709 6-8• 758 9-12
• These “average class sizes point to flat if not declining enrollment unless kindergarten is larger than today
RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHSRESIDENT BIRTHS
Year Minnesota Carver County
1998 65,207 1,052
1999 65,953 1,086
2000 67,451 1,140
2001 66,617 1,183
2002 68,037 1,165
2003 70,053 1,182
2004 70,617 1,253
2005 70,950 1,237
2006 73,515 1,338
2007 73,675 1,269
2008 72,382 1,194
2009 70,617 1,142
2010 68,407 1,186
2011 68,416 1,035
DISTRICT RESIDENT BIRTHS
1998-1999 576
1999-2000 621
2000-2001 664
2001-2002 615
2002-2003 647
2003-2004 658
2004-2005 677
2005-2006 724
2006-2007 715
2007-2008 635
2008-2009 605
2009-2010 605
2010-2011 607
2011-2012 518
2012-2013 552
MACRO TRENDSAging population
• Less mobility• Decrease in school age population per household• Shift in size of adult age groups
Less demand for single-family detached housing
More births this decade and the next (Gen Y)• Another enrollment cycle (third)
Rising elementary enrollment in the first half of the cycle
Another large graduating class about 2040 (end of cycle)
PROJECTION METHODOLOGIESCohort survival method
Projections by gradeReflects recent births and current size of
gradesDifficult to calibrate survival rates to reflect
additional housing units, especially if a large number of units
Housing starts methodCrude, only a total projection, no projection by
gradeReflects new housing units and turnoverDoes not reflect recent births or differences in
current grade sizes
KINDERGARTEN CAPTURE RATESCohort survival method
Kindergarten Assumptions Low is 99.2%, the average of the past two years High is 106.8%, this year (fall 2013)
NET MIGRATIONSCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR
Grade 04 to 05
05 to 06
06 to 07
07 to 08
08 to 09
09 to 10
10 to 11
11 to 12
12 to 13
K-5 139 69 45 16 75 51 17 100 60
6-8 20 14 34 -14 68 32 32 20 -14
9-12 9 39 -4 1 -16 -36 41 38 17
Total 168 122 75 3 127 47 90 158 63
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSYear
Low KLow Mig
Low KHigh Mig
High KLow Mig
High KHigh Mig
2013-14 9,246 9,246 9,246 9,246
2014-15 9,252 9,245 9,298 9,291
2015-16 9,191 9,185 9,285 9,279
2016-17 9,167 9,165 9,309 9,308
2017-18 9,005 9,004 9,190 9,190
2018-19 8,917 8,930 9,146 9,160
2019-20 8,909 8,939 9,192 9,223
2020-21 8,954 8,992 9,291 9,331
2021-22 9,037 9,075 9,432 9,473
2022-23 9,069 9,115 9,525 9,576
2023-24 9,158 9,216 9,680 9,743
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSK-5 6-8 9-12 Total
2013-14 4,087 2,128 3,031 9,246
2018-19
Low K/Low Mig
3,743 2,115 3,059 8,917
Low K/High Mig
3,769 2,133 3,027 8,930
High K/Low Mig
3,972 2,115 3,059 9,146
High K/High Mig
4,000 2,133 3,027 9,160
2023-24
Low K/Low Mig
4,227 1,898 3,033 9,158
Low K/High Mig
4,257 1,935 3,023 9,216
High K/Low Mig
4,548 2,043 3,089 9,680
High K/High Mig
4,581 2,083 3,079 9,743
ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT
By SchoolBy Attendance Area
GRADE 1-5 ENROLLMENTSchool 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Bluff Creek 477 476 480 492 478
Chanhassen 502 478 455 407 417
Chaska 505 469 444 428 433
Clover Ridge 672 686 704 709 692
East Union 191 188 199 201 166
Jonathan 499 520 511 501 516
Victoria 590 637 625 607 623
LAA 41 84
Total 3,436 3,454 3,418 3,345 3,409
PROJECTED DEVELOPMENT FOR NEXT FIVE YEARS
CitySingle-Family
Detached Townhomes Condos
Carver 786 0 0
Chanhassen 346 366 0
Chaska 415* 0* 0
Victoria 445 10 0
Total 1,992 376 0* A major new mixed residential development (City of Chaska) slated to begin in 2016. Between 200-300 may be built. These units are not included in the above counts
PROJECTED SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED UNITS
Attendance Area 2014-
152015-
162016-
172017-
182018-
19Total
Bluff Creek 67 67 47 56 49 286
Chanhassen 14 14 10 12 10 60
Chaska 0 0 0 0 0 0
Clover Ridge
51 *[30] **[60] [60] [60] 51[261]
East Union 110 ***[95] [95] [95] [95] 110[490]
Jonathan 104 252 59**[30]
[30] [30] 415[505]
Victoria 180 202 63 455
Victoria South
0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 526 535[660]
179[364]
68[253]
59[244]
1,367[2,047]
**Less certain as to single-family
NEW DEVELOPMENT637 new single-family detached units in past
3.5 years2,047 projected in next 5 years
K-5 RESIDENT YIELD FROM SINGLE-FAMILY UNITS
Existing Units(pre 2010) 2010-June
2013
Non Movers Movers New Units
# Yield # Yield # Yield
Bluff Creek 1,301 0.21 234 0.30 164 0.34
Chanhassen 2,003 0.14 231 0.28 41 0.24
Chaska 1,374 0.20 196 0.24 33 0.21
Clover Ridge
1,604 0.34 309 0.29 111 0.37
East Union 638 0.25 102 0.31 3 0.33
Jonathan 1,483 0.23 226 0.22 159 0.31
Victoria 1,448 0.27 270 0.36 122 0.52
Victoria South
253 0.15 40 0.10 4 0.00
ATTENDANCE AREA PROJECTIONSRESIDENT STUDENTS ONLY
Attendance Area
2018-19 2013-14
Single-Family Units
All Other Units Total Total
Bluff Creek 486 128 614 524
Chanhassen 396 120 516 483
Chaska 331 210 541 537
Clover Ridge 737 117 854 790
East Union 351 1 352 193
Jonathan 589 162 751 594
Victoria 870 108 978 703
District wide 3,760 846 4,606 3,824
Increase of 782 resident students
PROJECTION COMPARISON2018-19
School Attendance Area*
Kindergarten 589 ---
Bluff Creek 480 614
Chanhassen 402 516
Chaska 455 541
Clover Ridge 642 854
East Union 124 352
Jonathan 499 751
Victoria 618 978
LAA 206
District wide 3,809 4,606
Difference 797 students
MIDDLE SCHOOL PROJECTIONS
By School
MIDDLE SCHOOL PROJECTIONSSchool 2013-
142014-
152015-
162016-
172017-
182018-
19
Chaska East
707 727 752 758 765 737
Chaska West
777 799 818 827 808 755
Pioneer Ridge
644 583 559 550 545 559
LAA 84
Sum 2,128 2,109 2,129 2,135 2,118 2,051
MIDDLE SCHOOL HOUSING UNITPROJECTION
Immediate effect of new units is small205 additional students; some will leave middle
school before others arriveLarge impact after 2018-19 as elementary
students “age” into middle school
HIGH SCHOOL PROJECTIONS
By School
HIGH SCHOOL PROJECTIONSSchool 2013-
142014-
152015-
162016-
172017-
182018-
19
Chanhassen 1,613 1,635 1,658 1,665 1,639 1,669
Chaska 1,346 1,366 1,334 1,324 1,284 1,303
IAA 72
District wide
3,031 3,045 3,032 3,034 2,970 3,027
HIGH SCHOOL HOUSING UNITPROJECTION
Immediate effect of new units is small205 additional studentsImpact after 2018-19 and continuing into the
2020s as elementary students “age” into high school
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